1 / 22

Challenges of Measuring Poverty Reduction and Equality: Using statistics to assess results

Challenges of Measuring Poverty Reduction and Equality: Using statistics to assess results. Ana Revenga Director, Poverty Reduction Group World Bank Stockholm November 20, 2008. Overview. MM&E systems and the results agenda Measuring poverty

Download Presentation

Challenges of Measuring Poverty Reduction and Equality: Using statistics to assess results

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. Challenges of Measuring Poverty Reduction and Equality: Using statistics to assess results Ana Revenga Director, Poverty Reduction Group World Bank Stockholm November 20, 2008

  2. Overview • MM&E systems and the results agenda • Measuring poverty • Income/Consumption poverty: new global estimates • Non-income poverty: MDGs, voice and empowerment • Areas of new analysis • Measuring equality of opportunities • Measuring service delivery • Poverty maps • Country level monitoring systems • Tracking program effectiveness & poverty impacts • Integrating M&E into government processes

  3. Using MM&E to enhance development outcomes Objectives: National process: MM&E tools Better diagnostics on binding constraints to poverty alleviation and equity. Strategies, allocation and design Poverty Diagnostics Better ex-ante understanding of the distributional impacts of reforms, better design. Ex-ante Impact Modeling (PSIA) Better ability to track progress and feedback into policy making. Poverty Monitoring/ M&E Implementation Better understanding of which interventions reduce poverty; Building evidence-based policy. Impact Evaluation Results

  4. Challenges of Measuring Global (Income) Poverty • How do we talk meaningfully about “global poverty”? • Poverty lines across countries vary in terms of their purchasing power • To measure global poverty, we need to apply a common standard, anchored to what “poverty” means in the world’s poorest countries • International comparisons of poverty require PPP, but previous estimates (1993 PPPs) biased • Cost of living underestimated in poor countries; quality and price differences confused • Other weaknesses: country coverage (no China), urban bias • 2005 International Comparison Program (ICP) improves PPP and poverty estimates • Coverage increased to 146 economies (many more Africa + China) • Revised international poverty line = $1.25 / day • Global headcount poverty revised upward (1.4 billion), but trend in poverty reduction still robust

  5. Measuring income poverty:New global estimates higher, but poverty falling The % below $1.25 a day was halved, falling from 52% to 26% over 1981-2005. Trend decline of one % point per year. At this rate, the developing world as a whole is on track for attaining the first MDG. • Number of poor fell by 500 million, from 1.9 billion to 1.4 billion • Poverty rate fell in all years • Robust to choice of poverty line

  6. Measuring income poverty:Progress uneven across regions Revised Poverty Estimates

  7. Challenges of Measuring Non-Income Dimensions of Poverty • More difficult than using more traditional income/consumption based metrics • “Non-monetary” indicators • may change more slowly than monetary indicators • can be more difficult (and costly) to collect • may require special surveys • more context-specific and less “universal” • may be less tangible and quantifiable • …hence perceived as less objective and rigorous

  8. Non-Income Measures:Malnourished Children (%) Source: Online Atlas of the MDGs (World Bank)

  9. Non-Income Measures:Malnourished Children (number) Resized based on number of children under 5 who are malnourished Source: Online Atlas of the MDGs (World Bank)

  10. Non-Income Measures:Access to Education • Africa: Enrollment rates have risen, but male-female gap has not significantly narrowed. • SA and MENA: Male-female enrollment gap narrowed. Progress in enrollments for ‘last’ 10-20% is slow. • EAP: Net enrollment rates for male and female children decreased slightly • LAC & ECA: Fairly stable

  11. Non-Income Measures:Primary Completion (%) Source: Online Atlas of the MDGs (World Bank)

  12. Non-Income Measures:Gender Equality in Education Source: Online Atlas of the MDGs (World Bank)

  13. Non-Income Measures:Measuring Empowerment • Empowerment: expansion of capabilities of poor to participate in, negotiate with and influence institutions that affect their lives • Institutional Climate • Social and political structures • Individual assets and capabilities • Collective assets and capabilities • Empowerment is difficult to measure quantitatively and benefits from a mixed method approach: • Access to most assets can be measured by indicators (but qualitative methods better at evaluating psychological, social assets) • Institutional context can be only partially measured byindicators, and is better grasped through use of qualitative/mixed methods.

  14. Measuring women’s empowerment in Bangladesh Empowerment indicators (results further explored through focus groups) included: • Control over assets (husband, self, joint, others) • Participation in village meetings and elections (& if not, why not) • Participation in household decision making (husband, self, joint, others) about expenditures, children, joining organizations • Autonomy (visiting & purchases) • Domestic violence

  15. Areas of New Analysis:Measuring Inequality of Opportunities • The Human Opportunity Index (HOI) measures differences in opportunity among children. • The HOI synthesizes both the absolute level of basic opportunities in a society and how equitably those opportunities are distributed. • As the answers are aggregated across services, children and circumstances, a picture arises of how equitable (or not) a society is.

  16. Areas of New Analysis:Human Opportunity Index

  17. Measuring Equality of Opportunity – within countries

  18. Areas of New Analysis:Measuring Service Delivery • Service delivery information may be used to increase accountability • Administrative data, facility surveys, PETs • Data may be used to deepen our understanding of poverty and inequality and target policy responses • Linking LSMS and facility surveys • Careful evaluation aimed at answering key questions of design and the resulting effects can be used to increase the effectiveness of existing programs

  19. Each dot is randomly placed within a DS unit and represents 500 poor persons Areas of New Analysis:Poverty Maps • Poverty maps can improve policy design: • Understanding spatial pattern of poverty and correlates • Targeting programs and funding • Monitoring progress and communicating results Poverty Headcount Accessibility Index Distribution of the Poor

  20. Country level statistical and monitoring systems • Country’s statistical capacity is critical • Not only for tracking indicators • But for supporting rational decision making, policy design and implementation • But for results, must link M&E to strategy and budget • To have an impact, monitoring and evaluation data must be used for policy formulation and budgeting • Requires strong political leadership, coordination, and dissemination of results • Basics first • Focus on strengthening and harmonizing existing processes • Don’t rely on technical fixes alone • Create demand among policy makers and stakeholders

  21. Country level M&E Systems: Lessons from Uganda • M&E results can have big impacts • Public Expenditure Tracking Survey (PETS) used in 1996 to identify leakage in funding flow to primary school • Found only 13% of funds reached schools in 1991-95 • Greater transparency increase flow to 80-90% in 1999-2000 • Build on existing systems • National Integrated M&E System (NIMES) created to coordinate and harmonize 16+ existing systems • Intended to relieve data-collection burden and reduce multiplicity of performance indicators • Link strategy and budget processes • Poverty Action Fund (PAF) links Poverty Reduction Strategy priorities to budget

  22. THANK YOU

More Related