Presentation Transcript

1. The business environment in emerging economies Prof. Olivier Cadot Spring Semester, 2014
2. Seminar objectives Get the big picture How is the world economy evolving? What is the role of emerging economies Basic differences between industrial and emerging economies What do we know about economic development? Understand to anticipate Learn to analyze data Do and present descriptive statistics Do and interpret basic regression analysis Understand indices Learn to present and discuss your ideas Select what you communicate Give a «narrative» to your analysis Provide constructive comments to others
3. Seminar evaluation Hands-on data analysis exercise Get data Organize it (cleaning, formatting) Analyse it (descriptive statistics, econometric analysis) Present your results Group project Topic to be agreed with instructor/assistant Original contribution (not just review of the literature) Data analysis Discussion of group projects Optional: In-class case presentation and discussion
4. Seminar Format and schedule Six introductory sessions February 20, 27; March 6, 13, 20, 27 Group work, phase I (topic determination & data gathering): April Group meetings with professor/asssistant, round I: Week of April 15 Group work, phase II (analysis and preliminary draft): May Group meetings with professor/assistant, round II: Week of May 12 Assignment of «discussant» roles Presentations and discussion: May 15, 22, 29
5. Suggestive list of paper topics Governance in extractive industries Country competitiveness analysis Measuring «logistics friendliness» Export entrepreneurship Statistical analysis of competitiveness and other indices Public-private partnerships in public utilities, with a focus on water privatization Free-trade agreements Product standards, technical regulations, and competition NGO management & accountability Project impact analysis
6. Understanding globalization
7. Trade grows faster than production Trade growth vs. GDP growth Openness ratio
8. Global trade patterns 628 628 242 375 75 250 55 263 263 427 105 1’395 Source: Adapted from The Economist, A Survey of Logistics, 17 June 2006, p. 5. Million US dollars
9. Shifting patterns, shifting center of gravity 2015 Source: JM Grether and N Mathys (2006), “Is the World’s Economic Center of Gravity Already in Asia?”, mimeo, Univ. of Lausanne
10. The decline of the rich countries Share of high-income countries in trade in goods In current USD At PPP
11. The rise of Asian players Service exports: India, 1975-2010
12. The internationalization of companies Inward and outward FDI flows Inward Outward
13. Differences in values (i): Hofstede (1980) Individualism Power acceptance “Masculinity” (competitiveness) Risk aversion Source : http://www.clearlycultural.com/geert-hofstede-cultural-dimensions/uncertainty-avoidance-index/
14. Differences in values (ii): A cultural distance index Intra-country fragmentation index Inter-country distance index (Thoenig et al. 2009)
15. Has cultural distance shrunk?
16. Determinants of cultural distance
17. The transportation revolution Share of U.S. trade shipped by air, 1965-2010 Source: Feyrer (2009)
18. Globalization: stylized facts
19. Globalization: stylized facts The developing world’s debt burden
20. Summing up Income distribution over time: World, 1970-80 Source: Sala i Martin 2002
21. Summing up Income distribution over time: World 1990-98 Source: Sala i Martin 2002
22. Summing up Poverty: tide turning? Headcount of individuals living on less than $1 a day worldwide million individuals Source: World Bank (2002),"Globalization, Growth and Poverty:Building an Inclusive World Economy"
23. Summing up What is globalization? Rising openness to trade/reduced trade protection Goods Services Rising mobility of capital/internationalization of firms FDI Speculative flows Reduced global incidence of poverty Uneven across continents Halted by global financial crisis