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Increasing Wind Energy Penetration t hrough Improved Forecasting

Increasing Wind Energy Penetration t hrough Improved Forecasting. Mrinal Kumar Assistant Professor, Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering University of Florida http://www.mae.ufl.edu/~mrinalkumar mrinalkumar@ufl.edu. Revisiting Sustainability.

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Increasing Wind Energy Penetration t hrough Improved Forecasting

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  1. Increasing Wind Energy Penetration through Improved Forecasting Mrinal Kumar Assistant Professor, Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering University of Florida http://www.mae.ufl.edu/~mrinalkumar mrinalkumar@ufl.edu

  2. Revisiting Sustainability • “Sustainability” as a model for development was first proposed in 1969 SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC GROWTH SOCIAL PROGRESS ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION

  3. Revisiting Sustainability SOCIAL SOCIAL ECONOMIC ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENTAL ENVIRONMENTAL In theory… In reality…

  4. Revisiting Sustainability SOCIAL ECONOMIC SOCIAL ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENTAL ENVIRONMENTAL In theory… What we must do…

  5. Revisiting Sustainability According to the EPA: Sustainability is based on a simple principle: Everything that we need for our survival and well-being depends, either directly or indirectly, on our natural environment.  Sustainability creates and maintains the conditions under which humans and nature can exist in productive harmony, that permit fulfilling the social, economic and other requirements of present and future generations.

  6. Revisiting Sustainability According to the EPA: Sustainability is based on a simple principle: Everything that we need for our survival and well-being depends, either directly or indirectly, on our natural environment.  Sustainability creates and maintains the conditions under which humans and nature can exist in productive harmony, that permit fulfilling the social, economic and other requirements of present and future generations.

  7. The Lowdown on Wind Energy According to the World Wind Energy Association (WWEA): “Without doubt wind power has become a pillar of energy systems in many countries and is recognized as a reliable and affordable source of electricity”

  8. The Lowdown on Wind Energy • China overtook the US in total installed capacity in 2010 • About 55% of total installed capacity in world is in Eastern Europe • About 55% of new installed capacity (~past 2 years) is in Asia • For some perspective, it is important to add in the “size” of the country as well

  9. The Lowdown on Wind Energy Wind Electricity Capacity Normalized by Country Size: #12 #30 (!) ?? • There is tremendous potential for increasing the penetration of wind power in the US • If the entire world had the same turbine density (pu area) as Denmark, the world production of electricity would be 12,000 GW: far more than the entire world’s needs…

  10. The Lowdown on Wind Energy • FACTS from the WWEA Reports (2010-2012): • About 3% of global electricity demand is supplied by wind power • 100 countries and regions use wind power for electricity generation • Factoring in the size of the country, USA ranks 20th in installed capacity per unit gross GDP, 12th in capacity per person and 30th in capacity per unit land area • Smaller countries have shown incredible progress given their resources • Policy uncertainty in major markets, notably the US represent the biggest barrier in increased penetration of wind power • It will be crucial to move renewable energy to the center of the debate at UN Climate Change Conferences

  11. The Lowdown on Wind Energy Six major drivers for mid-term and long term prospects of wind power Ongoing debate on climate change, search for emission free technologies Depletion of fossil and nuclear fuels Role Models: Increasing number of regions and countries demonstrating that 100% renewable energy is possible Increasing awareness of the hazards of nuclear power, e.g. Fukushima Contribution of wind energy to the “three pillars” of sustainability, namely ecologically, economically and socially Further technological developments, e.g. forecasting, storage

  12. Share of Electricity Generation Sources: USA 42% 25% 19% 8% 3% 3% Wind share in US is approximately same as world average Denmark leads the world with 21% wind share

  13. Potential for Wind Derived Electricity: USA DENMARK USA

  14. Ongoing Project • Project Title: An Integrated Hybrid Forecasting Framework of Increased Wind Power Penetration • Funded by: NSF • Grant Type: CAREER Grant • Duration: Feb 2013 – Jan 2018 (5 YEARS) • PI: Mrinal Kumar, Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering • Proposed Outreach Activities: • Sustainable Energy Professional Development Program (with CPET) • Renewable Energy Design Challenge (with CPET)

  15. Project Details • Main technical challenges in harnessing wind energy: • Wind flow is highly unpredictable due to inherent uncertainties • Electricity storage is inefficient and still impractical • Objective of project: • To develop the next generation of forecasting algorithms for accurate characterization of uncertainty in wind Importance of project: Will help reduce the risk associated with wind, thereby facilitating its reliable integration in the electricity grid

  16. Project Details HOW DOES THE ELECTRICITY MARKET WORK? How does the power grid work? power source load srpnet.com A basic electrical circuit Yet another circuit: though much more complex…

  17. Project Details HOW DOES THE ELECTRICITY MARKET WORK? How does the power grid work? Electricity trading done by placing bids, e.g. DAY-AHEAD MARKET • The power grid is basically one large electrical circuit • Power source is the generation side (coal, wind, etc) ≈ SUPPLY • Power load is the consumer side (residential, commercial etc) ≈ DEMAND • SUPPLY must continuously match DEMAND (else outages occur) • Large scale STORAGE is INFEASIBLE • Power must therefore be generated real time  RELIABILITY is CRUCIAL • Wind is inherently INTERMITTENT  how to integrate it in gridwith LOW RISK??

  18. Project: Technical Modules KEY: Increase reliability by improved forecasting • MODELING of Wind Dynamics: • Turbulence • Orography, terrain roughness • Local farm effects, e.g. shadowing • UNCERTAINTY CHARACTERIZATION: • Nonlinear non-Gaussian uncertainty quantification • High dimensional Fokker-Planck solvers • Randomized Markov chain particle algorithms • INTEGRATION with Wind Farm data: • Incorporate real data into analysis • Collaborate with wind farms, NCAR and NREL

  19. Project: Technical Modules Uncertainty in physical systems: a simple example Initial probability density function

  20. Project: Technical Modules Uncertainty in physical systems: Example 1 of uncertainty propagation Example 2 of uncertainty propagation Example 3 of uncertainty propagation Example 4 of uncertainty propagation Example 5 of uncertainty propagation

  21. Project: Outreach Activities AIM:In collaboration with CPET, create and execute a “Sustainable Energy Professional Development Program”(SEPDP) • PURPOSE:To train high school teachers in the area of sustainable energy in general and wind energy in particular for: • Increasing awareness about the challenges of wind energy, esp uncertainty • Encouraging new leadership in the push towards sustainability • EXPECTED OUTCOME: • Trained teachers enrich high school curriculum and educate thousands of students about relevant topics • Trained teachers put together a team to participate in Challenge-RED

  22. Project: Outreach Activities • SEPDP DETAILS: • 5 day training program • 2 sessions per day • Morning Session: • Interactive presentation sessions for delivery of main material covering sustainability, energy, power generation, wind, uncertainty • Discussion on technical, socio-economic, political, environment aspects • Afternoon Session: • Lab sessions, interaction with graduate students • Discussions on problem solving techniques, the scientific method • Designed exercises

  23. Project: Outreach Activities • Challenge-RED: • After returning to their schools, trained teachers will put together a team of 5 students to participate in a Renewable Energy Design Challenge • Challenge-RED will be an year-long inter-school design challenge, held as an after-school club activity • Each team will have a UF based mentor (grad or undergrad student)

  24. Or some number… CHALLENGE-RED FLYER

  25. Project: Outreach Activities SAMPLE TIMELINE: SEPDP + Challenge-RED NEW SEPDP Cycle

  26. Tentative Curriculum Content for SEPDP 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

  27. Thank You! Questions… Comments…

  28. FACTS from the WWEA 2010-2012 Reports 7. Policy uncertainty in major markets, notably the US represent the biggest barrier in increased penetration of wind power 8. It will be crucial to move renewable energy to the center of the debate at UN Climate Change Conferences 9. In USA, the main source of stagnation is regulatory uncertainty and lack of focus on renewable energy. 10. In developing countries, there is a massive policy gap and not enough stability and reliability in the market framework, next to lack of financial resources 11. While more and more political leaders declare their support for renewable and in particular wind power, less and less is seen in actual implementation Amount: 2.3¢/kWh for wind, geothermal, closed-loop biomass; 1.1¢/kWh for other eligible technologies. Generally applies to first 10 years of operation.

  29. FACTS from the WWEA 2010-2012 Reports 10. In developing countries, there is a massive policy gap and not enough stability and reliability in the market framework, next to lack of financial resources 11. While more and more political leaders declare their support for renewable and in particular wind power, less and less is seen in actual implementation Amount: 2.3¢/kWh for wind, geothermal, closed-loop biomass; 1.1¢/kWh for other eligible technologies. Generally applies to first 10 years of operation.

  30. Project: Outreach Activities Sustainability Basics of energy and electricity Various sources of electricity: Renewable and non-renewable Operation of the electricity market Wind Energy Essentials Basics of Energy and Electricity Different Types of Sources of Electricity Renewable and Non-Renewable Power Operations of the Electricity Market Wind Power – Basics: Wind, Turbines Wind Power – Issues: Technical (reiability, storage, uncertainty, etc) Wind Power – Issues: Political Wind Forecasting – Types, Methods

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