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Livestock and Crop Outlook 2011: Key Trends and Analysis

Explore key insights on livestock and crop markets for 2011. Understand market dynamics, supply and demand factors, and economic conditions shaping the agriculture industry this year. Stay informed to make strategic decisions.

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Livestock and Crop Outlook 2011: Key Trends and Analysis

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  1. Ag Outlook for 2011 Iowa Chapter of ASFMRA and RLI Annual Meeting Ames, Iowa Feb. 3, 2011 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

  2. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

  3. Source: USDA

  4. Cattle and Hog Prices Source: CME Group

  5. Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

  6. Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

  7. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

  8. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

  9. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

  10. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

  11. Cattle/Beef Prices Source: USDA

  12. Hog/Pork Prices Source: USDA

  13. Source: USDA

  14. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

  15. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

  16. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

  17. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

  18. Source: USDA

  19. Class III Milk Prices Source: CME Group

  20. Thoughts for 2011 and Beyond • Continued economic recovery is a major key for livestock prices • Meat demand is recovering • Meat supplies tightened up with smaller herds/flocks • Feed costs have continued to march higher • The combination implies livestock expansion will take awhile • Poultry in 2010, Hogs maybe in 2012, and Cattle after that

  21. U.S. Corn Supply and Use Source: USDA

  22. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Source: USDA

  23. World Corn Production Source: USDA

  24. World Soybean Production Source: USDA

  25. Corn Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

  26. Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA, FAS

  27. Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

  28. Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA, FAS

  29. Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)

  30. Ethanol Margins Source: ISU, CARD

  31. Ethanol Blending Advantage

  32. Fuel Prices

  33. Projected 2010 Season-Average Corn Price

  34. Projected 2010 Season-Average Soy Price

  35. Projected 2011 Season-Average Corn Price

  36. Projected 2011 Season-Average Soy Price

  37. Corn

  38. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

  39. Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

  40. Principal Crop Area Source: USDA-NASS

  41. States with Room to Grow

  42. New Crop Futures Price Movements

  43. Thoughts for 2011 and Beyond • General economic conditions • Continued economic recovery is a major key for crop prices • Chinese inflation, European credit tightening, and Middle Eastern unrest have hit the markets • Long-term oil price remain in the $90 range • Supply/demand concerns • South America: La Niña impacts • Will supply be able to keep pace with demand? • 2010/11: USDA: Corn $5.30, Soy $11.70 Futures (as of 2/2/2011): Corn $5.48, Soy $12.25 • 2011/12: Futures (as of 2/2/2011): Corn $5.83, Soy $13.16

  44. Thank you for your time!Any questions?My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/

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