1 / 33

AG OUTLOOK 2004

AG OUTLOOK 2004. Purdue Cooperative Extension Service March 10, 2004. What’s Different. Asian Financial Crisis 1997---Finally over Stable U.S. Weather 1996-2001 is Over World Income Growth Foreign Currencies are Stronger Grains and soybeans are not high priced in foreign countries

mikhail
Download Presentation

AG OUTLOOK 2004

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. AG OUTLOOK 2004 Purdue Cooperative Extension Service March 10, 2004

  2. What’s Different • Asian Financial Crisis 1997---Finally over • Stable U.S. Weather 1996-2001 is Over • World Income Growth • Foreign Currencies are Stronger • Grains and soybeans are not high priced in foreign countries • U.S. Dollar will Continue to Weaken • World Surplus is Gone • World Basic Food Stocks are Dangerously Short • U.S. Inflation Will Move Up • Recovering Era for U.S. Exporters • Farmers • Manufactures • China is our Ag Market King—They Economy is BOOMING • S. America is still a growing thorn……….

  3. Dollar Index -28% since Feb 2001 In 2003 -Euro +22% -Yen +11% -Canadian $ +18% -Brazilian Real +18%

  4. Why? Higher Volume corn and wheat exports with tight world stocks. Beef?? Exports $59.5B: UP $4.0B or 7.2% Surging Imports: Up $7.5B in two years. Why? Hort imports, fruits, veg. apple and orange juice, wine, coffee, cocoa, malting barley, wheat

  5. Implications • Much more volatile prices • Marketing decisions are more important • Risk management is heightened • Livestock sector forced to adjust: • Layers, Beef cattle, Broilers • Hogs and Dairy (still to adjust) • Government expenditures to Ag are reduced • Dependency on Government is reduced • Record HIGH farm income 2003, 2004? • Farmers as BUYERS????? • Large Incentive to seed BEANS in 04 • Land values continue to increase • Costs of production bid higher • Boomlet/Bustlet Cycle 2004-2008??????

  6. Dropped to 146

  7. Dec 2002 $2.60 - $2.96

  8. Dec 04…$3.00

  9. $11.00 $9.50 $9.00 $7.50

  10. $10.50 MayFutures How High????: -S.Amer. Crop not as small as expected -Exports seem to be rationed -Imports of oil and meal likely -But can S.Amer. load out the volume??? -Can we cut domestic crush?????

  11. July 97 Futures $7 to $9 in January - April

  12. What About New Crop? Nov 1997 Futures $6.50 to $7.50 Jan to March

  13. Nov 2004 High--$7.61

  14. Last Fall

  15. Today

  16. Normal Temps/Prec. Mrch/April/May

  17. Warm Summer but Normal Precip: July/Aug/Sept

More Related