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Iowa's Agriculture 2011 Outlook: Key Trends & Insights

Gain valuable insights on the 2011 outlook for Iowa's agriculture sector with a focus on grain markets, supply, demand, and key economic factors. Explore potential impacts of La Niña, biofuels, and global market trends. Stay informed to make informed decisions in the agricultural industry. Contact Chad Hart at Iowa State University for more information.

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Iowa's Agriculture 2011 Outlook: Key Trends & Insights

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  1. Grains Outlook for 2011 Insuring Iowa’s Agriculture Ames, Iowa Nov. 9, 2010 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

  2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use Source: USDA

  3. Source: USDA-NASS

  4. Translates to a yield in the 170-175 bu. range Translates to a yield around 160 bu. Source: USDA-NASS

  5. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Source: USDA

  6. Source: USDA-NASS

  7. Within a bushel of each other Source: USDA-NASS

  8. World Corn Production Source: USDA

  9. World Soybean Production Source: USDA

  10. La Niña Winter Source: NOAA

  11. Clearing Old Stocks The current stocks set-up is reminiscent of the transition between the 2006 and 2007 crops. Source: USDA

  12. Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

  13. Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: Shane Ellis, ISU Extension

  14. Historical Export Levels Week 9 of marketing year Source: USDA, FAS

  15. Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA, FAS

  16. Soy Export Shifts Source: USDA, FAS

  17. Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)

  18. Ethanol Blending Advantage

  19. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs Right now, futures are in $5.40 range for 2010 and 2011 corn Even with higher fertilizer costs, corn’s profitable

  20. Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs Futures are nearly $12 for 2010 and 2011 beans

  21. This Year Soy $12.10 Corn $5.43

  22. Thoughts for 2011 and Beyond • General economic conditions • Continued economic recovery is a major key for crop prices • Long-term oil price remain in the $90 range • Supply/demand concerns • Stocks: 2009 vs. 2010 crop • South America: La Niña impacts • Biofuels: E10, E12, or E15; Do the tax credits get extended/renewed? • Will supply be able to keep pace with demand? • 2010/11: USDA: Corn $5.20, Soy $11.45 Futures (as of 11/8/2010): Corn $5.46, Soy $11.80 • 2011/12: Futures (as of 11/8/2010): Corn $5.34, Soy $11.71

  23. Thank you for your time!Any questions?My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/outreach/agriculture/periodicals/ifo/Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/

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