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B ateria_ok

B ateria_ok. bloco_ L eve. P(M). B, L. 0.90. T T. luz_acessa - G. braço_ M ove. 0.05. T F. B. P(G). 0.00. F T. T. 0.95. 0.00. F F. P(L). P(B). F. 0.10. 0.70. 0.95. X último a disparar. Y último a tocar. Z impressões dig. P(X). P(Y|X). P(Z|Y). [0.8, 0.1, 0.1].

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B ateria_ok

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  1. Bateria_ok bloco_Leve P(M) B, L 0.90 T T luz_acessa - G braço_Move 0.05 T F B P(G) 0.00 F T T 0.95 0.00 F F P(L) P(B) F 0.10 0.70 0.95

  2. X último a disparar Y último a tocar Z impressões dig P(X) P(Y|X) P(Z|Y) [0.8, 0.1, 0.1] 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.8 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 Evidencia E+ p(X) = P(X) p(Y) = p(X).P(Y|X) = [0.8 0.1 0.1].P(Y|X) = [0.66 0.17 0.17] p(Z) = p(Y).P(Z|Y) = [0.66 0.17 0.17].P(Z|Y) = [0.66 0.17 0.17] P(X|E+) = p(X) = [0.8 0.1 0.1] P(Y|E+) = a.l(Y).p(Y) = [0.66 0.17 0.17] P(Z|E+) = a.l(Z).p(Z) = [0.66 0.17 0.17]

  3. X último a disparar Y último a tocar Z impressões dig P(X) P(Y|X) P(Z|Y) [0.8, 0.1, 0.1] 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.8 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 Evidencia E- l(Z) = P(E-|Z) = a.[0.8 0.6 0.5]T l(Y) = a.P(Z|Y).l(Z) = a.P(Z|Y). [0.8 0.6 0.5]T = [0.8 0.6 0.5]T l(X) = a.P(Y|X).l(Y) = a.P(Y|X). [0.8 0.6 0.5]T = [0.75 0.61 0.54]T P(X|E+E-) = a.l(X).p(X) = a.l(X). [0.8 0.1 0.1] = [0.84 0.08 0.076] P(Y| E+E-) = a.l(Y).p(Y) = a.l(Y).[0.66 0.17 0.17] = [0.738 0.143 0.119] P(Z| E+E-) = a.l(Z).p(Z) = [0.738 0.143 0.119]

  4. X último a disparar Y último a tocar Z impressões dig P(X) P(Y|X) P(Z|Y) [0.8, 0.1, 0.1] 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.8 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 Nova evidencia E+ p(X) = [0.28 0.36 0.36] p(Y) = p(X).P(Y|X) = [0.28 0.36 0.36].P(Y|X) = [0.3 0.35 0.35] p(Z) = p(Y).P(Z|Y) = [0.3 0.35 0.35].P(Z|Y) = [0.3 0.35 0.35] P(X|E+E-) = a.l(X).p(X) = [0.33 0.352 0.311] P(Y| E+E-) = a.l(Y).p(Y) = [0.384 0.336 0.28] P(Z| E+E-) = a.l(Z).p(Z) = [0.384 0.336 0.28]

  5. P(A) P(T) [0.001 0.999] [0.002 0.998] Alarme Roubo Terramoto R,T T T João T F A A P(J|A) P(M|A) F T T T [0.70 0.30] [0.90 0.10] F F Maria F F [0.01 0.99] [0.05 0.95] P(A|R,T) [0.95 0.05] [0.94 0.06] [0.29 0.71] [0.001 0.999] pA(R) = [0.001 0.999] pA(T) = [0.002 0.998] p(A) = pA(R).P(A|R) + pA(T).P(A|T) = pA(R).ST(P(A|R,T).P(T)) + pL(T).P(A|T) = = [0.005 1.995] P(A|E+E-) = a.l(A).p(A) = a.[0.005 1.995] = [0.0025 0.9975] pJ(A) = a.P(A|E+E-)/lJ(A) = a.[0.005 1.995] = [0.0025 0.9975] p(J) = pJ(A).P(J|A) = [0.0052 0.9948] = P(J| E+E-) De forma semelhante: p(M) = pM(A).P(M|A) = [0.01 0.99] = P(M| E+E-)

  6. X U1 Un Y1 Yn … Dados: pX(Ui) , lYi(X) e P(X|U1,…,Un) … Calcular: l(X) = PilYi(X) p(X) = SUipX(Ui).P(X|Ui) = SUi P(X|U) PipX(Ui). P(X|E+,E-) = a.l(X).p(X) Propagar:lX(Ui) = b.SXli(X).S(Uk¹Ui) P(X|U1,…,Un).P(k¹i)pX(Uk) pYj(X) = a. P(X|E+,E-) / lYj(X)

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