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ALADIN for Dynamical Downscaling of Precipitation: Nesting and Evaluation

This study focuses on the use of ALADIN for dynamical downscaling of precipitation. It explores different nesting schemes and integration lengths, evaluates the results over MAP-SOP, and discusses the benefits of nesting and potential solutions for initialization issues. Conclusions highlight the importance of multiple nesting levels and the limited impact of surface blending on precipitation scores.

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ALADIN for Dynamical Downscaling of Precipitation: Nesting and Evaluation

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  1. Use of ALADIN for dynamical downscaling of precipitation Jure Cedilnik University of Ljubljana, Slovenia

  2. Introduction (1) • Nesting ALADIN into ERA-40 T159/L60, with use of conf. 901 for conversion to Arpege FA • Sequential runs over a period Use of ALADIN for dynamical downscaling of precipitation

  3. Introduction (2) • Using different nesting schemes and integration lengths • MAP SOP for evaluation Use of ALADIN for dynamical downscaling of precipitation

  4. Results over MAP-SOP Use of ALADIN for dynamical downscaling of precipitation

  5. Why nesting? operational A-SI (double n.) ERA-40 & ALADIN w. single n. ERA-40 & ALADIN w. double n. Use of ALADIN for dynamical downscaling of precipitation

  6. Simulating Longer Periods • Up to now: 5 years of double nesting 60hrs long integrations with 12 hour time-lag • Main objective for doing this: mapping of wind potential (aid to climatological research) Use of ALADIN for dynamical downscaling of precipitation

  7. Results:total precipitation in 1997 Objective spatial interpolation of observations, by M. Dolinar, EARS ALADIN, double nesting, driven with ERA-40 [mm] Use of ALADIN for dynamical downscaling of precipitation

  8. Results:total precipitation in 1998 Objective spatial interpolation of observations, by M. Dolinar, EARS ALADIN, double nesting, driven with ERA-40 [mm] Use of ALADIN for dynamical downscaling of precipitation

  9. Problem – initialization of deep soil moisture time evolution of deep soil moisture, averaged over domain time (jul. days in 1999) Use of ALADIN for dynamical downscaling of precipitation

  10. Possible solution – blending of surface fields time evolution of deep soil moisture, averaged over domain time (jul. days in 1999) Use of ALADIN for dynamical downscaling of precipitation

  11. Surface blending vs. no blending (1) average daily precipitation over SOP [mm] single nesting, no blending double nesting, no blending F&H analysis single nesting, surface blending double nesting, surface blending Use of ALADIN for dynamical downscaling of precipitation

  12. Surface blending vs. no blending (2) scores Bias= +0.46 RMSE= 9.78 Bias= -0.44 RMSE= 9.08 single nesting, no blending double nesting, no blending F&H analysis Bias= +0.53 RMSE= 8.66 Bias= -0.46 RMSE= 9.44 single nesting, surface blending double nesting, surface blending Use of ALADIN for dynamical downscaling of precipitation

  13. Results – water balance 2m temperature and evapotranspiration Average 2m temperature [C], 1997-2001 Water balance in Murska Sobota, summer 2001 drought (precipitation + evapotranspiration) [mm] Analysis by B. Kurnik, EARS Use of ALADIN for dynamical downscaling of precipitation

  14. Conclusions • Single nesting is not enough (at least for such a small domain) • Surface blending does not have a significant impact on precipitation scores – whole year test? • No initialization of ISBA fields can be dangerous –> relaxation towards ERA40 • Improvements with the use of local data (radar, ...)? Use of ALADIN for dynamical downscaling of precipitation

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