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Verification of ALADIN/Portugal forecasts. Margarida Belo (Instituto de Meteorologia, Portugal ). >1550m. >1250m. >300m. ALADIN Orography and portuguese stations. Wind speed (10m). 06UTC. 00UTC. RMSE . 18UTC. Inland (north and center of Portugal). 12UTC.

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Verification of aladin portugal forecasts l.jpg

Verification of ALADIN/Portugal forecasts

Margarida Belo

(Instituto de Meteorologia, Portugal )


Slide2 l.jpg

>1550m

>1250m

>300m

ALADIN Orography and portuguese stations



Slide4 l.jpg

06UTC

00UTC

RMSE

18UTC

Inland

(north and center of Portugal)

12UTC

In average, ALADIN slightly underestimate the wind speed in the inland stations of north and center of Portugal

06UTC

Wind speed

BIAS


Slide5 l.jpg

00UTC

12UTC

RMSE

06UTC

18UTC

West coast

12UTC

Wind speed

BIAS

In average, ALADIN overestimate the wind speed in the west coast of Portugal


Slide6 l.jpg
RMSE

Wind speed (ALADIN versus ECMWF)

BIAS


Examples of good forecasts of wind speed h 24 l.jpg

Observation

ALADIN

ECMWF

ALADIN exceeds the alert value (15.3m/s) for the Civil Agency

Examples of good forecasts of wind speed (H+24)

ECMWF gives a false alarm


Observed event wind from n l.jpg

POD = 0.29

Observed event: wind from N

POD = 0.40


Observed event wind from w l.jpg

POD = 0.37

Observed event: wind from W

POD = 0.54


Observed event wind from s l.jpg

POD = 0.30

Observed event: wind from S

POD = 0.36


Observed event wind from e l.jpg

POD = 0.57

Observed event: wind from E

POD = 0.50



Slide13 l.jpg

H+48

forecast - observation

Scatterplot: MSLP

Winter 2004

H+24

ALADIN underestimate the MSLP, mainly in anticyclonic situations

forecast - observation

observation



Slide15 l.jpg

18UTC

06UTC

RMSE

00UTC

12 UTC

Inland

(north and center of Portugal)

In average, in the inland stations of north and center of Portugal, ALADIN has a warm bias at 12UTC and 18UTC, whereas has a cold bias at 00UTC and 06UTC.

2m temperature

18UTC

BIAS


Slide16 l.jpg

00UTC

RMSE

12 UTC

06UTC

West coast

2m temperature

BIAS

In average, ALADIN has a warm bias in the west coast of Portugal, stronger in summer months


Slide17 l.jpg

00UTC

12 UTC

18UTC

RMSE

06UTC

In average, in the inland stations of south of Portugal, ALADIN has a warm bias at 00UTC and 06UTC, whereas has a cold bias at 12UTC and 18UTC.

Évora and Beja

00UTC

2m temperature

12 UTC

BIAS


Slide18 l.jpg
RMSE

2m Temperature (ALADIN versus ECMWF)

BIAS


Series l.jpg
Series

August 2003

Castelo Branco: good forecast with both models. Vila Real: ALADIN underestimate T2m.


Bias td 2m aladin l.jpg
Bias Td (2m) - ALADIN

Às 12UTC

After March 2003, ALADIN is too moist in the beginning of the integration


Slide21 l.jpg
RMSE

2m Td (ALADIN versus ECMWF)

BIAS


Winter 2002 03 l.jpg
Winter 2002/03

Accumulated precipitation (PA)

in 6-hours (12-18UTC)

C1 - PA  0.3 mm/6 h (no rain),

C2 - 0.3 mm/6 h < PA  2.0 mm/6 h (light rain),

C3 – 2 mm/6 h < PA  10.0 mm/6 h (moderate rain),

C4 – PA > 10.0 mm/6 h (heavy rain),


Scores for contingency tables l.jpg
Scores for contingency tables

Critical Success Index

Probability of detection

False Alarm Ratio


Slide24 l.jpg

Winter 2002/03

ECMWF

ALADIN

Observed event: no rain (C1)

POD = 0.76

FAR = 0.15

BIAS = 0.89

POD = 0.88

FAR = 0.16

BIAS = 0.91

Observed event: light rain (C2)

POD = 0.25

FAR = 0.87

BIAS = 1.89

POD = 0.24

FAR = 0.83

BIAS = 1.39


Slide25 l.jpg

Winter 2002/03

ECMWF

ALADIN

Observed event: moderate rain (C3)

POD = 0.16

FAR = 0.84

BIAS = 1.04

POD = 0.28

FAR = 0.75

BIAS = 1.12

Observed event: heavy rain (C4)

POD = 0.19

FAR = 0.90

BIAS = 1.85

POD = 0.00

FAR = 1.00

BIAS = 1.00


Summary 1 l.jpg
Summary 1

  • In average, ALADIN slightly underestimate the wind speed in the inland stations of north and center of Portugal.

  • In average, ALADIN overestimate the wind speed in the west coast of Portugal.

  • ALADIN underestimate the MSLP, mainly in anticyclonic situations.


Summary 2 l.jpg
Summary 2

  • In average, in the inland stations of north and center of Portugal, ALADIN has a warm bias at 12UTC and 18UTC, whereas has a cold bias at 00UTC and 06UTC.

  • In average, ALADIN has a warm bias in the west coast of Portugal, stronger in summer months.

  • In average, in the inland stations of south of Portugal, ALADIN has a warm bias at 00UTC and 06UTC, whereas has a cold bias at 12UTC and 18UTC.