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Adaptation: managing the unavoidable Roundtable 3: Can agricultural investment coexist with climate change policies?. Ana Iglesias Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Spain EastAgri Annual Meeting 2010 Istanbul, 13-14 Oct 2010 Roundtable 3 (October 14, 900 – 1230 h).

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Adaptation: managing the unavoidableRoundtable 3: Can agricultural investment coexist with climate change policies?

Ana Iglesias

Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Spain

EastAgri Annual Meeting 2010

Istanbul, 13-14 Oct 2010

Roundtable 3 (October 14, 900 – 1230 h)

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1 key issue can agricultural investment coexist with climate change policies?

2 challenges

  • Speak a common language (prioritise reasons for concern)
  • Improve dialogue between science, policy and society (define how, lessons from EU initiatives, measures that make sense today and in the future)

(academic point of vies, some thoughts and some examples)

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Reasons for concern

Financial crisis, terror, inequality, degradation of the environment, …

Common element: global issues, what happens in one place has an influence on what happens in another place

slide4
Food importers are buying agricultural land of poor countries

Defining the baseline is difficult

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High risk, highly certain

Medium risk, some uncertainty

Possible opportunity,

if management is adequate

“The adaptation gap” Can optimal management decrease vulnerability to climate?

example 1 changes in land productivity iglesias et al 2007 2010
Example 1Changes in land productivity (Iglesias et al 2007; 2010)

HadCM3A2

HadCM3B2

We do not know how our world would be like in the future

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What might a low GHG diet look like?(Source: T. Garnett, 2009)
  • Not overeating
  • Much less meat and dairy
  • Seasonal field grown foods
  • Not eating certain foods
  • Reducing dependence on cold chain
  • Wasting less
  • Efficient cooking
  • Redefining quality
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6 Evaluation criteria
  • Mitigation potential
  • Externalities
  • Barriers to implementation (tech., ec., social)
  • Interest to farmers
  • May be included in CAP?
  • Incentives?

6 Measures with high mitigation potential

  • Catch crops
  • Reduced tillage
  • Use crop residues
  • Optimising fertiliser use
  • Increase wood crops
  • Optimal pasture renewal

Source: PICCMAT (6th FP EU)

10

example 2 water
Additional population under extreme stress of water shortage

120

Population (millions)

80

40

0

2020

2050

2080

Example 2: Water

University of Southampton

11

slide14
Example 3: Human displacement

http://ciesin.columbia.edu/publications.html

slide15
Improve dialogue science, policy, society

Example 4: Lessons from EU initiatives (EC White paper on adaptation; EU funded research)

16

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Axis 1
  • Farm modernization
  • Restoring & prevention
  • Farm advisory services
  • Training

Axis 2

  • Agri-env measures
  • Payments linked to WFD

Axis 3

  • Diversification into non-agricultural activities

Leader

Role of RD (CAP)

A flexible framework

slide17
natural water resources

regulation infrastructure

non-conventional

resources

Policy

water availability

Policy

nature

non-nature uses

essential

productive

Policy

Role of WFD

Policy

water recycling

Source: Garrote et al., 2010

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Example 4: Evaluation (and valuation) of policy action (Iglesias et al., 2010)

HadCM3/HIRHAMB2 scenario, 2071-2100, (% yield change)

(1) Emphasis on water resources protection and urban development

(2) Farm adaptation without policy support (private)

(3) Emphasis on agricultural production and rural development

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Reasons for concern when we think about climate change

Consequences are too unequal

Uncertainty

Deciding on the solutions that are appropriate (the how issue)

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thank you

[email protected]

Presentation made at the:

EastAgri Annual Meeting 2010

Istanbul, 13-14 Oct 2010

Roundtable 3 (October 14, 900 – 1230 h)

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