So Where Are We (The World) on This Climate Change Problem?. By Edward L. Miles Bloedel Professor of Marine Studies and Public Affairs, School of Marine Affairs, and Team Leader JISAO/SMA Climate Impacts Group Center for Science in the Earth System (CSES) University of Washington. Background.
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ByEdward L. MilesBloedel Professor of Marine Studies and Public Affairs, School of Marine Affairs, and Team LeaderJISAO/SMA Climate Impacts GroupCenter for Science in the Earth System (CSES)University of Washington
Why I Think What I Do
1. global climate change is a problem of long time scale;
2. all policy measures will be indeterminate in their ultimate impacts;
3. indeterminacy, when linked to issues of costs, changing lifestyles, and distributive inequities, creates large obstacles to significant short-run policy action;
4. benefit-cost analytics tend to discount the future heavily beyond 2 decades.
(synergy or contingency relationships).
The Framework Convention on Climate Change(FCCC), Art. 2
The ultimate objective of this Convention …is to achieve…stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened, and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.
Growing Evidence of “Slippery Slopes” and “Tipping Points”:Cumulative, Multiple Stresses and Changes Irreversible on Human Timescales
Have we seriously underestimated both the magnitude & rate of change?
Thinking About Targets and Thresholds
WAIS disintegration at 2-4C; disintegration of Greenland ice sheet at 1C, along with widespread bleaching of coral reefs.
Source: Cain, Hansen, et al. 2004
Source:Cain, Hansen et al. 2004
Source: Cain, Hansen, et al .2004