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Prof. Anthony Patt, Potsdam Institute and Boston University Pablo Suarez, Boston University

Seasonal Forecasts, Scientific Information, & Subsistence Farming. Presentation at the September 2003 SARCOF Lusaka, Zambia. Prof. Anthony Patt, Potsdam Institute and Boston University Pablo Suarez, Boston University Chiedza Gwata, University of Zimbabwe.

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Prof. Anthony Patt, Potsdam Institute and Boston University Pablo Suarez, Boston University

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  1. Seasonal Forecasts, Scientific Information, & Subsistence Farming Presentation at the September 2003 SARCOFLusaka, Zambia Prof. Anthony Patt, Potsdam Institute and Boston University Pablo Suarez, Boston University Chiedza Gwata, University of Zimbabwe Research funded by the NOAA Office of Global Programs

  2. Observations Farmers didn‘t seem to understand the forecast. Farmers didn‘t seem to trust the forecast. Farmers didn‘t seem to use the forecast very much.

  3. Questions Could farmers understand a probabilistic forecast? Could the forecasts be made more credible? If farmers understand and believe a forecast, will they use it to make different decisions?

  4. Could farmers understand a probabilistic forecast? Experiment: Play a simple betting game 5 times Play a different game that mimics reality Play the simple betting game again

  5. Could farmers understand a probabilistic forecast? Experiment: Play a simple betting game 5 times Play a different game that mimics reality Play the simple betting game again

  6. Could farmers understand a probabilistic forecast? Psychological experiment: Play a simple betting game 5 times Play a different game that mimics reality Play the simple betting game again

  7. Could farmers understand a probabilistic forecast? Experiment: Play a simple betting game 5 times Play a different game that mimics reality Play the simple betting game again By the way, women did much better than men.

  8. Could farmers understand a probabilistic forecast? Teaching method during workshop

  9. Could farmers understand a probabilistic forecast? Teaching method during workshop

  10. Could the forecasts be made more credible? Experiment: three door game 1 2 3

  11. Could the forecasts be made more credible? Experiment: three door game 1 2 3

  12. Could the forecasts be made more credible? Experiment: three door game 1 lose 3

  13. Could the forecasts be made more credible? Experiment: three door game 1 lose 3 ?

  14. Could the forecasts be made more credible? Psychological experiment: three door game lose P(win) = 0.33 lose WIN! P(win) = 0.67

  15. Could the forecasts be made more credible? Experiment: three door game lose P(win) = 0.67 lose WIN! P(win) = 0.67 What if: Somebody gives advice to switch? You have observed switching succeeding? The advisor has an incentive to help you win (wins same prize)?

  16. Could the forecasts be made more credible? Experiment: three door game

  17. Could the forecasts be made more credible? Experiment: three door game By the way, women did much better than men.

  18. If farmers understand and believe a forecast, will they use it to make different decisions? Explain and work with information.

  19. If farmers understand and believe a forecast, will they use it to make different decisions? Listen to experiences on the ground.

  20. If farmers understand and believe a forecast, will they use it to make different decisions? Build networks with and involve local authorities.

  21. If farmers understand and believe a forecast, will they use it to make different decisions? Discuss major constraints, including climate.

  22. If farmers understand and believe a forecast, will they use it to make different decisions? Assist community to organize a sustainable process, + examine whether worthwhile.

  23. Questions Could farmers understand a probabilistic forecast? Could the forecasts be made more credible? If farmers understand and believe a forecast, will they use it to make different decisions?

  24. Questions Could farmers understand a probabilistic forecast? Could the forecasts be made more credible? If farmers understand and believe a forecast, will they use it to make different decisions? Yes, yes, and yes!

  25. Questions Could farmers understand a probabilistic forecast? Could the forecasts be made more credible? If farmers understand and believe a forecast, will they use it to make different decisions? Yes, yes, and yes! (But it takes work)

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