Learning Objectives

2. 6 Learning Objectives Identify demographic trends and their likely impact on American politics 6.1 Outline how various forms of socialization shape political opinions 6.2

3. 6 Learning Objectives Explain how polls are conducted and what can be learned from them about American public opinion 6.3 Assess the influence of political ideology on Americans’ political thinking and behavior 6.4

4. 6 Learning Objectives Classify forms of political participation into two broad types 6.5 Analyze how public opinion about the scope of government guides political behavior 6.6

5. Video: The Basics 6 http://media.pearsoncmg.com/ph/hss/SSA_SHARED_MEDIA_1/polisci/presidency/Seg2_PoliticalOpinion_v2.html

6. Video: The Big Picture 6 http://media.pearsoncmg.com/ph/hss/SSA_SHARED_MEDIA_1/polisci/presidency/Edwards_Ch06_Public_Opinion_Seg1_v2.html

7. 6 Public Opinion and Political Action

8. The American People Identify demographic trends and their likely impact on American politics 6.1 • Immigrant Society • American Melting Pot • Regional Shift • Graying of America

9. Identify demographic trends and their likely impact on American politics 6.1 in 2010, the Census Bureau sent forms to all 134 million U.S. households…Why? The Census Explained The other side of the census The demography of the U.S. determines representation in the House of Representatives and how federal money is allocated.

10. Immigrant Society A nation of nations 1 million legal immigrants/year 500,000 illegal immigrants/year 12% of residents foreign-born Waves of immigration Northwest Europe (English, Irish, Scottish, Germans, Scandinavians) - to mid-19th century Southern and Eastern Europe (Italians, Jews, Poles, Russians) - late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries Hispanics (Cuba, Central America, Mexico) – 1960’s… Asians (Vietnam, Korea, Philippines, India) – to present Identify demographic trends and their likely impact on American politics 6.1

11. Immigrant Society Restrictions on immigration Open door policy to mid 1800’s Criminals, prostitutes, lunatics, diseased (1875) Chinese Exclusion Act (1882) Johnson-Reid Immigration Act (1924) National origin quotas Spurred by large numbers of Southern and Eastern Europeans Hart-Celler Immigration and Nationality Act (1965) family integration trumps (no pun intended) quotas Family integration – good or bad idea? Identify demographic trends and their likely impact on American politics 6.1

12. American Melting Pot?? Minority majority Hispanic population growing rapidly As of 2010, whites made up only 63% of the population. Hispanics make up 16%, but they’re the fastest growing minority group. By 2043, whites will make up less than half of the population. Identify demographic trends and their likely impact on American politics 6.1

13. Identify demographic trends and their likely impact on American politics 6.1 FIGURE 6.1: The coming minority majority Hawaii, New Mexico, California, and Texas already have minority majorities. Eight other states—Maryland, Mississippi, Georgia, New York, Arizona, Florida, Nevada, and New Jersey—have minority populations of at least 40 percent. Minority groups should be in the majority by the year 2043.

14. American Melting Pot African Americans: Reluctant immigrants 13% of population 26% still live in poverty…Segregation?? Political power increasing Identify demographic trends and their likely impact on American politics 6.1

15. Identify demographic trends and their likely impact on American politics 6.1 Border fence Illegals: c. 11.5 million 76 percent from Mexico The 1986 Simpson-Mazzoli Act forbids employers from knowingly employing illegal immigrants but it hasn’t proven to be an effective deterrent because of both weak enforcement and the difficulty of proving that an employer knew that a worker’s documents were fake.

16. Identify demographic trends and their likely impact on American politics 6.1 Border fence Illegals: c. 11.5 million 76 percent from Mexico The 1986 Simpson-Mazzoli Act forbids employers from knowingly employing illegal immigrants but it hasn’t proven to be an effective deterrent because of both weak enforcement and the difficulty of proving that an employer knew that a worker’s documents were fake.

17. American Melting Pot? Political culture, assimilation, and political power?...Fear???...Reality?... 2016 election?? Identify demographic trends and their likely impact on American politics 6.1 Historically, most immigrant groups have adopted the values that make up American political culture within a few generations. There’s always concern that new groups will not assimilate. This concern has been unfounded in the past, but it remains a persistent fear that leads to negative attitudes toward immigrants. By the time this little Chinese-American girl, shown here meeting former Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert, graduates from college, Asian Americans will represent 8 percent of the U.S. population. As the most highly educated segment of the coming “minority majority,” it’s likely that they will be in a position to exercise a good deal of political power by then.

18. Regional Shifts Northeast most populous West and South growing since WWII Sun Belt migration Arizona, Texas, Florida Political power of these areas increasing Reapportionment Once each decade, after census Identify demographic trends and their likely impact on American politics 6.1

19. Graying of America Over-65 fastest growing age group People living longer Fertility rate lower Implications for Social Security Ratio changing Politically-sensitive Identify demographic trends and their likely impact on American politics 6.1

20. Outline how various forms of socialization shape political opinions Public Opinion and Political Socialization 6.2 • What is Public Opinion? • Process of Political Socialization • Political Learning over a Lifetime

21. What Is Public Opinion? Do you like broccoli? Blue fingernail polish? Tattoos? Hard rock music? What about sports? Old cars? You almost certainly have an opinion on each of those things. On some of them, you may hold strong opinions, and those opinions may be very important to you. Still, each of those opinions is your own view, your private opinion. None of them qualifies as public opinion. So, again…What Is Public Opinion?

22. What Is Public Opinion? • Who Is 'the Public'?.....Groups with expressed views on particular issues • Public Opinion Relates Only to Public Affairs Like the opinions of the spectators at this tennis match, public opinion can be complex and conflicting. Analyze Images Can politicians satisfy all public opinions? Why or why not?

23. Political Socialization: No one is born with a set of attitudes about government and politics. Instead, each of us learns political opinions, and we do so in a lifelong “classroom” and from many different “teachers.” In other words, public opinion is formed out of a very complex process. The factors involved in it are almost infinite. Family Shapes ideology/World View Race Occupation Gender School Instills citizenship /patriotism AND Exposes us to diversity

24. Family, School, and Political Attitudes A young girl waits for Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton to arrive at a campaign event. Make Predictions How is this girl likely to vote in the future?

25. Political Socialization: other factors Historic Events • The median age of news program viewership is 62. This explains why increasing media exposure has led to more political ignorance rather than less. Peer Groups “Talking Heads”

26. Outline how various forms of socialization shape political opinions Political Learning over a Lifetime Increasing participation with age Party identification strengthens Political behaviour is learned 6.2 Political socialization is most pronounced in our childhood and young adult years but it continues throughout our lives. Political participation increases dramatically with age, and party identification solidifies. Political behavior is learned behavior, and this learning slows down but never stops.

27. Outline how various forms of socialization shape political opinions 6.2 FIGURE 6.2: Turnout increases with age

28. Outline how various forms of socialization shape political opinions 6.2 Conservative or Liberal? Socialization Cooperative Quiz HW: Who are Liberals and Conservatives?

29. Outline how various forms of socialization shape political opinions Video: Thinking Like a Political Scientist 6.2 http://media.pearsoncmg.com/ph/hss/SSA_SHARED_MEDIA_1/polisci/presidency/Seg4_PublicOpinion_v2.html

30. Explain how polls are conducted and what can be learned from them about American public opinion Measuring Public Opinion and Political Information…WHY? 6.3 • Publicopinion is supposed to guide public policy in a democracy • How Polls Are Conducted • Role of Polls in American Democracy • What Polls Reveal About Americans’ Political Information • Decline of Trust in Government

31. Explain how polls are conducted and what can be learned from them about American public opinion How Polls Are Conducted Sample Random sample - everyone must have an equal chance of being polled Sampling error – typically +/- 3% Random digit dialing Cell phones Internet polling? 6.3

32. Activity: How/Why the Polls got it wrong?

33. Explain how polls are conducted and what can be learned from them about American public opinion Roll of Polls in American Democracy Polling as a tool for democracy: pros and cons?? Gauge opinion between elections Following rather than leading: acting as a delegate Polls showing public support, or lack thereof, for a bill can determine how legislators will vote on it. Pandering or shaping?...Spin doctors?... using polls to strategize how to shape public opinion to support the policies they want to impose Bandwagon effect…Who loves a loser? 6.3

34. Explain how polls are conducted and what can be learned from them about American public opinion Exit Polls Exit polls are a type of poll that is actually dangerous because they do more than measure public opinion. They can determine electoral outcomes. In part due to time differences, polls that show which candidate is ahead in an electoral race can discourage voters from bothering to go to the polls.

35. Explain how polls are conducted and what can be learned from them about American public opinion What Polls Reveal About Americans’ Political Information Americans are uninformed Jeffersonian faith in wisdom of common people unfounded. He was correct that education gives them better capacity as citizens, but education alone is not enough to create an informed electorate. Young people most uninformed Who is responsible for the ill-informed electorate? Is it the schools’ fault? Is it the media’s fault? 6.3

36. Explain how polls are conducted and what can be learned from them about American public opinion What Polls Reveal About Americans’ Political Information Americans are uninformed Given our ignorance of the issues how do we make our political choices? * Single issue voters * Group member voters…church, club, etc * Swing voters… * Party line voters 6.3

37. Explain how polls are conducted and what can be learned from them about American public opinion 6.3 FIGURE 6.3: Many Americans show little knowledge of world geography The average respondent got 46 percent of the questions right. Believe it or not, 11 percent of young Americans could not even find their own country on the map.

38. Activity TPS: • Identify several reasons that may account for American citizens being so poorly informed about politics. • What are ways in which lack of information can be successfully dealt with? • Should Americans be concerned with this situation? • What proposals might be developed to remedy this situation?

39. Other Ways to Measure Public Opinion • Elections and Public Opinion • What did the recent election tell us about public opinion? • Is there a mandate? • Warren’s Take

40. Other Ways to Measure Public Opinion • How Accurately Do Interest Groups Reflect Public Opinion? Lobbying Two types of Lobbying * inside * Outside

41. So…What does it all tell us??

42. Explain how polls are conducted and what can be learned from them about American public opinion Decline of Trust in GovernmentUp to c. 1950 people trusted government…What happened? The great slide Vietnam War Watergate Economy/hostage crisis Partisan Politics Is public cynicism good? Negative effect on programs for poor…Why? 6.3

43. Explain how polls are conducted and what can be learned from them about American public opinion 6.3 FIGURE 6.4: Decline of trust in government, 1958-2012 How much of the time do you think you can trust the government in Washington to do what is right—just about always, most of the time, or only some of the time?

46. Assess the influence of political ideology on Americans’ political thinking and behavior What Americans Value: Political Ideologies 6.4 • Who Are the Liberals and Conservatives? • Do People Think in Ideological Terms?

47. Assess the influence of political ideology on Americans’ political thinking and behavior Who Are the Liberals and Conservatives? Conservatives dominate 41% conservative/21% liberal…Self Identification Younger people less conservative Minorities less conservative Wealthy more conservative Gender gap: Women more likely to support Democrats Religious more conservative It is noteworthy that actual voting and positions on policy does not match the self identification statistic…Gay rights, Abortion, Safety net Programs, etc. 6.4

48. Assess the influence of political ideology on Americans’ political thinking and behavior Do People Think in Ideological Terms? Four Types of voters: 1960/2008 Studies Ideologues make a connection between their beliefs and a candidates’ policy positions, such as voting for Republicans because they favor lower taxes or smaller government, or voting for Democrats because they favor stronger regulations or liberal social policies 6.4

49. Assess the influence of political ideology on Americans’ political thinking and behavior Do People Think in Ideological Terms? Four Types of voters: 1960/2008 Studies Ideologues Group benefits pick a party based on group identification, such as considering the Republicans the party that supports small business owners or the Democrats as the party of the working man. 6.4

50. Assess the influence of political ideology on Americans’ political thinking and behavior Do People Think in Ideological Terms? Four Types of voters: 1960/2008 Studies Ideologues Group benefits Nature of the times vote for the party in power in good times and vote for the other party when times are tough 6.4