Kristian Petrick July 2009 Ecofys International ecofys

1. Europe 100% renewable in 2050A logical explanationfor a realistic, affordable and feasible vision Kristian Petrick July 2009 Ecofys International www.ecofys.com

2. Introduction With a fascinating vision, mankind is able to accomplish amazing projects „I believe that this nation should commit itself to achieving the goal,before this decade is out, of landing a man on the moon andreturning him safely to the Earth." John F. Kennedy – May 25, 1961

3. Agenda What is required to be convinced of a vision?– An open mind to follow logical arguments Vision „Europe 100% renewable in 2050“ 1. Is it realistic? 2. Can we afford it? 3. Can we do it? • Concept of „Energy Autonomy“ • Examples • Energy Outlook • Cost curves • Business vs. public economics • Urgency • Stakeholder Analysis • Recommendations

4. Europe 1.a Concept of Energy Autonomy Animated slide Think in “energy self-sufficient units” – and demand, efficiency and renewables go hand-in-hand Devices: Solar powered phones, laptops, ... Regions / Countries Cities, Industries Appliances: Washing machines, motors, ... Photovoltaic, solar thermal, heat pumps, .... Homes and buildings Apartment buildings, vehicles, ... Wind parks, solar plants, geothermal, wave power, … Small hydro, biomass plants, solar parks, ... Villages and municipalities

5. 1.b Examples: Devices Integrate the power supply in a practical and innovative way – making devices independent from the grid Existing… Missing… Solar-mobile phones Solar-calculators Solar-MP3 Player Designed by Albert Bellot, Econcern Solar-Notebooks

6. Gas / Oil South South 1.b Examples: Appliances and buildings Accept higher efficiency standards and generate your own energy – and be proud of it Today … Future … New appliances only with highest standards allowed „Self-sufficient House“ „Passive House“ „House with PV“ „Power House“

7. 1.b Examples: Vehicles Make efficient products attractive – not necessarily cheap! – with target-group specific marketing Existing … Still missing … 3-liter Lupo 3-liter Porsche E-Car Think E-Mini

8. 1.b Examples: Industry Consider renewable energy for your company – you find it already for competitive prices in Europe Today … Maybe soon … Aluminium plant with hydro power, Norway Aluminium plant with solar power, Spain Aluminium plant with biomass power, Netherlands Aluminium plant with wind and ocean power, UK

9. Coal Uranium Gas Oil Oil Gas 1.b Examples: Municipalities and regions Imagine yourself, your neighbours and your region using energy from nearby Europe today … Europe in 2050 …

10. 1.c Energy Outlook Invest consistently in renewables and use energy intelligently – and the vision comes automatically true Energy Use • Energy Conservation / Savings • Energy Efficiency • Intelligent („passive“) use of energy 100% „Active“ use of energy Fossil and nuclear energies Renewable energies Today 2050 Small or easy applications/installations Complex industries/cities

11. Agenda So it may be realistic, but what is with the costs? Vision „Europe 100% renewable in 2050“ 1. Is it realistic? 2. Can we afford it? 3. Can we do it? • Concept of „Energy Autonomy“ • Examples • Energy Outlook • Cost curves • Business vs. public economics • Urgency • Stakeholder Analysis • Recommendations

12. 2.a Cost curves Accept that the times of cheap energy will not come back – but realize that only renewables can get cheaper • Renewable energies • Economies of scale • Technical improvements • Fossil/nuclear energies • Depletion • Internalization of emissions • Security of supply Energy costs Affordable for... developed countries Countries in transition developing countries Today Time (depending on technology and location)

13. 2.b Business- vs. socio-economic costs Challenge the ones who say we cannot afford 100% renewables – let them define which costs they mean Fossil economy Renewable economy State State Socio economics taxes subsidies / support schemes € € taxes subsidies / support schemes Damages € € € kWh kWh Business economics € € € Equipment & financing Equipment & financing Fossil Fuels & security of supply

14. 2.c Relevant energy costs Keep in mind that the affordability argument only matters for living a „good“ life, not a „luxurious“ one „Good life“ Use of income... ... for basic needs & pleasure ... for additional convenience and leisure Food, health, clothing Housing / living Work, education, social life, vacation, information, related mobility Savings / Provisions Luxury products and energy intensive leisure activities Energy required... .. must be affordable ... can be expensive Relevant energy costs Sustainability discussion (not focus of this presentation)

15. Agenda If it is realistic and affordable, what do we have to do? Vision „Europe 100% renewable in 2050“ 1. Is it realistic? 2. Can we afford it? 3. Can we do it? • Concept of „Energy Autonomy“ • Examples • Energy Outlook • Cost curves • Business vs. public economics • Urgency • Stakeholder Analysis • Recommendations

16. 3.a Urgency Be aware that we have to get on the right track now– and not waste time and money anymore Use of energy Savings, eficiency and intelligent use Fossil & nuclear Renewables 2008 2015 2050 < 100 months Time left according to IPCC to curb emissions world-wide • We need a convincing vision to • implement renewables faster • avoid investments in old technologies • avoid unnecessary emissions • get innovative ideas of more people • create optimism

17. 3.b Stakeholder Analysis Convince decision makers – and the population will increasingly benefit from renewable technologies Interests Stakeholders Fossil / nuclear Neutral Renewables • Deciders / Multipliers: • Politicians • Managers / Entrepreneurs • Private „Budget Holders“ Target Group • „Normal“ Population: • Private citizens • Employees / Workforce • Administration European Population

18. Serious humor Realize that the fossil age is over, the renewable age has begun – even if some may not like it “Save the hand axe industry!” “The metal workers destroy our workplaces” “Union Stone and Axe: Maintain the subsidies” “Save us” Greser & Lenz, Kunstmann Verlag

19. 3.c Recommendations Act and invest consistently in private, business and public matters – and just start today • Inform yourself & your family about energy and climate change • Buy smart(= considering energy) • Switch / turn off what you don‘t use Private Budget Holders Managers & Entrepreneurs Politicians and „normal“ citizens and employees / workforce and administration staff • Invest smart(= considering energy) • Improve & support renewable technologies • Have guts to change unsustainable business models or jobs • Implement consistent policies quickly • Provide infrastructure and support • Prohibit inefficient / polluting technologies and activities

20. A European Vision Get inspired by a fascinating vision– for yourself, for our children and for mankind „We believe that this continent should commit itself to achieving the goal,before half of the century is out, of using solely renewable energies andliving in a sustainable way on Earth." The European Parliament, the European Commission, the Head of States of the European Union,the Party Leaders of the Member States – December 2009

21. Europe 100% renewable in 2050 Conclusion A 100% renewable Europe in 2050 is realistic, affordable and feasible – just spread the word! Thank you for your attention! Contact: Kristian Petrick Ecofys Spain +34 936 455 458 k.petrick@ecofys.com