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Presidential Nominations

Presidential Nominations. Who selects the nominee?. Historically… Members of Congress State party leaders Primary voters (Or just those in Iowa and New Hampshire?). Percent of Party Convention Delegates Chosen by Primaries. Rules of the 2008 race. Frontloading. Rules of the 2008 race.

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Presidential Nominations

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  1. Presidential Nominations

  2. Who selects the nominee? • Historically… • Members of Congress • State party leaders • Primary voters • (Or just those in Iowa and New Hampshire?)

  3. Percent of Party Convention Delegates Chosen by Primaries

  4. Rules of the 2008 race • Frontloading

  5. Rules of the 2008 race • Frontloading • Effect on “Momentum”? • Importance of the Invisible Primary? • Demise of public finance?

  6. The demise of public finance • FECA Creates a voluntary subsidy for candidates who enter primary elections • All funds candidates raise in amounts of $250 or less (if they raise $5000 in 20 different states) are matched by the federal government on Jan 1 of election year • If you take the federal money, you abide by overall and state by state spending restrictions (about $44 million in 2004) • Public financing ($74 million in 2004) for general election campaigns (with limits on campaign spending)

  7. Rules of the 2008 race • Frontloading • Effect on “Momentum”? • Importance of the Invisible Primary? • Demise of public finance? • PR vs. the Unit Rule (Democratic party)

  8. California • Open primary • 370 delegates • 241 allocated proportionally based on primary results in each of 53 congressional districts • 129 allocated based on statewide vote 3 delegates: CDs 20, 47 4 delegates: CDs 2, 3, 11, 16, 18, 19, 21, 22, 25, 26, 31, 32, 34, 38, 39, 40, 41, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 48, 49, 51, 52 5 delegates: CDs 1, 4, 5, 7, 10, 13, 15, 17, 23, 24, 27, 28, 29, 33, 35, 36, 37, 50, 53 6 delegates: CDs 6, 8, 9, 12, 14, 30

  9. California • Closed Primary • 170 delegates • 159 allocated to the winner in each of 53 congressional districts (3 per district) • 11 allocated to winner of statewide vote

  10. Arizona • Closed primary • 50 delegates selected • Winner take all

  11. Arkansas • Open primary • 35 delegates selected • 22 allocated proportionally based on primary results in each of 4 congressional districts • 13 allocated based on statewide vote • 6 delegates in CD 1 & 2; • 5 delegates in CD 3 and 4

  12. Arkansas • Open primary, polls close 5:30pm • 31 delegates selected today • 12 allocated to the winner in each of 4 congressional districts • (Three to the winner if he receives 50% of the vote, proportionally to the top two if he does not) • 19 allocated based on statewide vote • All to winner if he receives 50% of the vote, allocated proportionally among top three if he does not.

  13. Colorado • Closed caucus • Precinct caucuses select delegates to county conventions, which select delegates to congressional district conventions, where 36 National Convention delegates will be chosen

  14. Colorado • Closed caucus • Precinct caucuses select delegates to county conventions. These delegates are not bound to vote along with results of straw poll on “caucus day”.

  15. West Virginia • Party Convention • 18 delegates selected • All 18 delegates awarded to candidate who wins a solid majority of the vote at the convention on one of the first three ballots.

  16. Who is advantaged by these rules?

  17. So who selects the nominee? • State party leaders? • Primary voters? • Large contributors? • The Press? • A combination? • How might the influence of different actors vary because of • The prevalence of caucuses/conventions/primaries? • Open/closed primaries? • The calendar/frontloading? • Unit rule vs. PR? • Campaign finance rules?

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