Employment and Social Protection in the New Demographic Context

1. Employment and Social Protectionin the New Demographic Context Population dynamics and poverty reduction in LDCs UNFPA Special Event IV UN Conference on LDCs, Istanbul, 9 - 13 May 2011 José Manuel Salazar-Xirinachs Executive Director, Employment Sector, ILO

2. Labour force trends Economically active population, 15+, 1980-2020, in thousands

3. Labour force trends Labour force participation rate, 65+, by region, 2010

4. Percentage of elderly receiving pension

5. Labour Force trends • Globally, youth labour force is projected to decline • But in the poorest regions, youth labour force is expected to continue growing. In South Asia and Sub-Saharan African 1.0 and 2.2 million young people, expected to enter the labour market every year between 2010- 2015 • Major youth labour market challenges in all regions but particularly in the poorest ones: • - High employment to population ratios reflect that the poor must work • - Youth unemployment double adult rates but just the tip of the iceberg: widespread prevalence of underemployment, informal, intermittent and precarious forms of work • - Gender inequality: major labour market issue • - ILO estimates that 152 million young workers live in poor households (with per-capita expenditure of less than US$1.25 a day)

6. Working poverty estimates, youth and adults in selected LDCs

7. Child and old age economic dependency ratios 2010-2050

8. Policy responses: an integrated life cycle and intergenerational perspective • The promotion of productive employment and decent work throughout the life cycle is the best way to address demographic challenges • Interventions to promote youth employmentare key in order to utilize the youth “demographic window”. Investing in young people is an opportunity to utilize the potentially large dividend of the sizeable youth cohorts. If untapped, the consequences can hinder socio-economic development. • Main features of youth employment interventions that have been most successful are: • Formulated and implemented at early stages of joblessness • Design that responds to labour market requirements • Targeted and tailored to individual needs and labour market disadvantages • Comprehensive package of services • Linked to work experience • Involved the social partners

9. Policy responses: an integrated life cycle and intergenerational perspective • Facilitating the transition of the informal economy into the mainstream • Well managed migration policies • Increasing female labour force participation and promoting gender equality • Ensuring adequate and sustainable social security: The UN Social Protection Floor

10. Conclusions • Demographic change constitutes an opportunity to socio economic development if the right policy measures are put in place. The labour market and the social transfer systems have a key role to play • The “demographic bonus” in LDCs can only be realized if sufficient opportunities of productive employment and decent work are available for this young population • Despite the young population, LDCs are ageing. The combination of old age, poverty and exclusion is of major concern. Adequate and sustainable social security is crucial to ensure a secure and decent old age