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Canada’s National Air Quality Forecast Program

This mid-term review outlines the current status, challenges, and next steps of Canada's National Air Quality Forecast Program. The program is built on national infrastructure with regional product delivery, providing forecasts and tools to improve air quality and the well-being of Canadian citizens. The review discusses the development of regional forecasts, program challenges, the need for long-term funding stability, and the establishment of year-round forecasts. It also highlights the importance of national standards and performance measurement in ensuring the program's success.

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Canada’s National Air Quality Forecast Program

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  1. Canada’s National Air Quality Forecast Program “Strengthening Canada’s long-term competitiveness, it’s natural environment and the well-being of it’s citizens” ? AQRB Mid-Term Review 2004

  2. Outline • Current Status • Challenges & next steps

  3. Current Program Status • Program built on national infrastructure with regional product delivery • National Infrastructure – Weather and Numerical Models • Local and regional forecasts developed as appropriate given local conditions and partnerships • HQ provides scientific tools and program support • Regions and partners have improvised, making best use of partnerships, using appropriate tools and advancing at their own rate • New National Coordinator – AQF • Reports to DG AEPD • Consults closely with AQRB/CMC/PCAD • Objective is to build a “dynamic” forecast program that is relevant to Canadians

  4. Regional Forecasts • Forecasts are now available to 75% of the Canadian population through regional production & dissemination • Pacific &Yukon • 16 regions Daily AQI numerical forecasts (PM10 and ozone) now year round • Prairie and Northern • Experimental CHRONOS based forecast • Ventilation Index Forecast • Ontario (Province and MSC) • 28 regions AQI category forecast (PM2.5 and ozone) year round

  5. Regional Forecasts • Quebec • 13 regions (S. Quebec) daily AQI category forecast (ozone) summertime • PM2.5 when greater than 70 ug/m3 per 3 hr running average • Greater Montreal wintertime daily category forecast (PM2.5) • Atlantic • 15 regions twice daily AQI numerical forecast (ozone) summertime • Evaluation of CHRONOS PM2.5 capability • Experimental Wintertime category forecast

  6. Program Challenges and Next Steps • Current program developed from an “ad-hoc” approach. Requires National leadership to provide vision, establish priorities and accomplish product standardization • Principal challenge is the establishment of A-based program funding. Currently in year 2 of the 4 year BAQS funding. Expires in 2007 • Will require an “enhanced” resubmission to TB in 2005 • Program requires long-term funding stability in order to ensure success through strategic planning • important that all stakeholders identify/justify fiscal requirements prior to submission. Opportunity for increased $$$?

  7. Program Challenges and Next Steps • Establishment of year-round AQ forecasts • will require support from CMC/AQRB • current approach is for regional development of “tools” to address local issues i.e. Winter Dispersion • preferable to have a national approach to development lead by AQRB/CMC but working closely with Regions • New AQI likely to be implemented in 2007 (Phil Blagden) • ozone & pm - Additional pollutants (NOx/SO2) • will require reliable NO2 guidance capability (CHRONOS or other) at the operational level as ASAP • Enhanced operational model capability at the operational level • CHRONOS • finer resolution/ 2 runs per day • product equivalent of the GEM HiMap output • Request from Operations for the development of a statistical model i.e. “Son of CANFIS” or MOS products

  8. Program Challenges and Next Steps • National Standards and National Performance Measurement • Will be important for TB submission • NOAA/MSC Operational AQ Working Group • Meeting in Fredericton – Nov 17, 2004 • Agenda being developed • Meeting the needs of our principal stakeholders i.e. provinces through regulation development & adherence • Will play an important role wrt the AQF • Development of a National Outreach Business Plan (Sharon Jeffers) • Will have a R &D/Model component • Input from AQRB/CMC required

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