Indicators based on representative surveys of firms, households and service providers
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Indicators based on representative surveys of firms, households and service providers Javier Herrera (IRD - DIAL) Mireille Razafindrakoto (IRD - DIAL), and François Roubaud (IRD - DIAL) Seminar on “The Empirics Of Governance“ May 1 – 2, 2008, Washington DC PRESENTATION SCHEME

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Indicators based on representative surveys of firms, households and service providersJavier Herrera (IRD - DIAL)Mireille Razafindrakoto (IRD - DIAL), and François Roubaud(IRD - DIAL)

Seminar on “The Empirics Of Governance“

May 1 – 2, 2008, Washington DC


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PRESENTATION SCHEME households and service providers

  • Uses of household surveys

  • Taking into account sources of bias

  • Objective vs subjective corruption indicators

  • Conclusions & Perspectives

DIAL

Développement,

Institutions et

Analyse de Long terme


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I. Uses of household surveys households and service providers

  • Household survey as a « voicing » instrument; public awareness on corruption (particularly in of authoritarian political contexts).

  • Complex links with policy


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Historical perspective households and service providers

 First estimation of the extent of corruption in 1995 in Madagascar (with Household survey)

  • Headlines in the press: « Outcry against corruption! »

 It then became impossible to ignore the problem


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1995 households and service providers

It then became impossible to ignore the problem

  • the Ministry of Justice took steps to introduce a system of sanctions.

  • a draft law on the fight against corruption

    BUT Draft law rejected by the Government Council in 1999

  • Importance of context & characteristics of institution (~ authoritarian regime and problem of governance)

    2002

    Institutional change  Stress put on transparency

  • 2003 Creation of an independent council (CSLCC)

  • 2004 Independent anti-corruption office (BIANCO)

MEASURE

1995  1998 

DEFINITION OF POLICY

QUALITY OF INSTITUTIONS / Political Regime

Positive Impact

Interactions


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Headlines in the press in may 2005: «  households and service providersMore confidence & less corruption »

after the public conference presenting the first results of the survey on « governance, democracy and fight against poverty »


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GOVERNANCE households and service providers

An improvement of civil servant wages

or an active anti-corruption policy

 a sharp drop in the incidence of corruption

Civil servant salaries and corruption levels in Madagascar 1995-2004

Sources : Razafindrakoto, Roubaud (2002) and 1-2-3 Survey 2002-2004, INSTAT, DIAL, authors calculations.


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II. Taking into account sources of bias households and service providers

  • Who answers the question matters (random sample selection within the household)

  • But also it matters to know more about who don’t answer (non respondent profile)

  • Taking into account the working of corruption (middlemen, social norms, etc.)

  • Robustness needs to be assessed

  • Informal production units needs adapted survey approach (the 123 surveys)


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III. Taking into account sources of bias households and service providers

  • The wording and sequence of question matters (but not only when measuring corruption, ie. labor surveys). Pilot surveys are important.

  • Non response to governance questions in HH surveys are lower than in standard questions (ie. Income)

  • Unobserved heterogeneity (« over optimistic »/ »under optimistic », use panel data -ongoing research)


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The surveys households and service providers

Governance and Democracy Modules grafted onto official household survey conducted by National Statistical Institutes

Survey support (stratified multi-stage sample surveys: area/HH) for the Modules (Individuals):

  • In Africa: 1-2-3 Survey (LFS, informal sector, consumption and poverty)

    - Madagascar 1995-2004, Capital + urban areas (2000, 2001), rural, entreprises surveys (time series)

    - West Africa 2001/2003, in 7 WAEMU capital cities (Abidjan, Bamako, Cotonou, Dakar, Lomé, Ouagadougou and Niamey)

    35 594 persons interviewed

  • In Latin America: Standard National Household surveys (ECH, Bolivia; SIE-ENEMDU, Ecuador; ENAHO, Peru). National and regional inference for Peru and Ecuador.

  • Peru 2002-, national level (18 000 HH sample in 2002; continuous survey from 2003 to date).

  • Ecuador 2004, (20 000 HH)

  • Bolivia 2004, national (1 700 HH).

  • The survey is taking place in Colombia during the 2nd term of 2005.

    More than 50 000 persons interviewed


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Ownership households and service providers

Reliability

Sustainability

Conducted by National Statistical Institute

 Integration in the National Statistical System

Relevance

Systematic

Presentation / Publication of the result  wider public

  • Validation

  • Democratic debate

  • demand

    Bottom-up approach

Investment in capacity building

Light, flexible tool

  • Reconductible

  • time-series

Marginal cost

HH survey « Voicing »

 empowerment, accountability

Strong points / Basic principles:

Supply side

Demand side

Interactions


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Non response households and service providersThere is (often) more willingness to answer questions on governance and democray than usual economic questions

Non response rate to selected questions

Sources : 1-2-3 Surveys, Phase 1, Governance and Democracy module, 2001/2003, National Statistical Institutes, AFRISTAT, DIAL, authors’ calculations.


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Robustness households and service providersProbabilistic surveys allows a quantitative assessement of indicators’ precision (also relevant for group and intertemporal comparaisons)

In your opinion, corruption since last year?

Source: our estimation based on ENAHO july 2003-june 2004, INEI, Peru.


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Taking into account the working of corruption: middlemen; failed corruption; “accepted” corruption, amounts paid, access to services; links with inefficiency…

Source: ENAHO 2004 HH survey Peru


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Corruption incidence taking into account access to public services

  • Incidence (percentage of households victims) has decreased

  • Total amount paid has decreased in real terms

  • The poor as well as the rich had benefited from this improvement

Incidence and cost of corruption (2002/2003 and 2004 in Antananarivo)

Source : Enquête 1-2-3, modules qualitatifs, 2003 et 2004, INSTAT, authors calculations.


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“Don’t know” answer is not random: it concerns mainly the poor, the rural, the less educated, the socially excluded

Importance of democracy


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Corruption incidence for the informal sector production units can be measured

Source: Alain Brilleau et al. « Le secteur informel : Performances, insertion, perspectives, enquête 1-2-3 phase 2 », STATECO n°99, 2005 p.82.


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III. Objective vs subjective corruption indicators units can be measured

  • Expert’s surveys vs. HH surveys

  • Do they measure the same phenomena? (petty vs. big corruption)

  • Minding the gap between :

  • -perceptions and objective indicators

    • -aspirations and perceived outcomes


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The mirror survey units can be measured

To round out the collection of surveys on Governance and Democracy in seven West African capitals and in Madagascar (Antananarivo),

an additional survey to get the opinions of a certain number of Southern and Northern experts (researchers, development practitioners, decision-makers, senior civil servants, politicians, etc.).

The aim --> to compare answers from the population surveyed in each country with the specialists’ point of view.


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The mirror survey (…) units can be measured

Two sets of questions:

-what the experts think the respondents answered on average.

- their own answer to these same questions (“What is your personal opinion?”)

Questions :

- Specificity of the answers of the population / experts, specialists

  • Knowledge of Northern or Southern experts on what happens and on people’s thinking in the South

  • Relevance and reliability of indicators based only on appreciation of panel of experts

    Sample size : 250 experts (30 per country in average)

DIAL

Développement,

Institutions et

Analyse de Long terme


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The need for complementary approaches / indicators units can be measured

How far can we trust the experts’ opinion on corruption?

  • Discrepancies between real extent of corruption and experts’ perception in Francophone Africa

     On the level of corruption / To what extent corruption acceptable

     On the relative positions (rank) of the different countries

Sources: General Household Survey (35,594 persons interviewed; 4500 for each country in average); Expert panel survey or Mirror survey (246 persons surveyed; 30 experts for each country in average). * In Madagascar, results are drawn from the 2003 survey. Authors calculations.


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DEMOCRACY units can be measured

  • Measuring the gap between aspirations and effectiveness as regards democratic principles

Perception of the main democratic principles by the population

 Are they fundamental? Are they respected in the country?

Sources : Enquêtes 1-2-3, module Démocratie, 2001/2003, Instituts Nationaux de la Statistique, AFRISTAT, DIAL

authors calculations.


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DEMOCRACY units can be measured

  • Measuring the gap between aspirations and effectiveness as regards democratic principles

Sources : Enquêtes 1-2-3, module Démocratie, 2001/2003, Instituts Nationaux de la Statistique, AFRISTAT, DIAL

authors calculations.


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The need for complementary approaches / indicators units can be measured

No correlation between

 Objective measure (incidence of corruption)

 Subjective perception of the working of civil service  


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The global lessons units can be measured

  • Advantages of household sample surveys

  • Transparency of measurement procedures

  • Representativeness

  • Quantification,

  • Comparability of indicators over time.

  • In-depth policy-oriented analyses

    More appropriate than international indicators and aggregates.

  • Both objective (behaviour, actual experiences) and subjective information (perception, satisfaction)

    Monitoring and relating the two fundamental dimensions of these phenomena.

  • Socio-economic disaggregation

    These two dimensions can be combined with traditional variables related to the socio-economic characteristics of individuals and households (income, occupation, sex, age, ethnic group, etc.).

    Possibility to disaggregate information between different population categories (gender, poverty, ethnic groups, discriminated people, etc.

  • International comparability


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IV. Conclusions & Perspectives units can be measured

  • Measure different dimensions of governance

  • A detailed understanding of different forms of corruption is necessary to analyse its determinants and consequences

  • Different sources of potential bias should be considered in designing & analysing surveys

  • Both, objective and subjective, governance indicators need to be collected to better understand aspiration/outcome gaps and why corruption may become or not a political issue.


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END units can be measured

For more works on Governance, Democracy and Poverty see our web site

http://www.dial.prd.fr

Our article:

“Governance, Democracy and Poverty Reduction: Lessons drawn from household Surveys”, International Statistical Review (2007), vol. 75, issue 1, pp.70-95

is available upon request