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An introduction to climate change. Tunbridge Wells Environment Strategy launch 22 February 2005 Gerard Couper, Senior Consultant. What I will cover in this presentation. What is the greenhouse effect? Is climate change real: the evidence Why address climate change: impacts and opportunities
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An introduction to climate change Tunbridge Wells Environment Strategy launch 22 February 2005 Gerard Couper, Senior Consultant
What I will cover in this presentation • What is the greenhouse effect? • Is climate change real: the evidence • Why address climate change: impacts and opportunities • How should we respond: mitigation and adaptation • International and national policy • Predicted local impacts and what we can do about it Acknowledgements:Steve Waller IDeA, Neil Gunn Environment Agency, Carbon Trust (Climate Change Challenge), ICCP (TAR 2001), DEFRA An introduction to climate change
What is climate change? • The world is warming • Much of the warming is to do with human emissions of greenhouse gases • There will be a wide range of impacts An introduction to climate change
Climate change: it is getting hotter The Earth’s climate system has demonstrably changed on both global and regional scales since the pre-industrial era, with some of these changes attributable to human activities. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2001 An introduction to climate change
The warming of central England climate (red) and surrounding UK coastal waters (blue). An introduction to climate change
We are contributing to climate change Human activities have increased the atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols since the pre-industrial era. IPPC 2001 An introduction to climate change
UK Emissions of the Three Principal Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) Methane -- from the energy industry, agricultural sources, and waste to landfill Carbon dioxide -- mostly from fossil fuel combustion, from energy generation and transport Nitrous oxide -- mostly agricultural sources An introduction to climate change
Other signs • Retreat of glaciers • Extreme weather • Changing seasons An introduction to climate change
Pastreze Glacier present day An introduction to climate change
Why should we address climate change? Wide range of potential impacts including • Damage from severe weather • Water shortages • Flooding • Health impacts • Agriculture • Biodiversity • Impacts on buildings and transport systems An introduction to climate change
How should we address climate change? Mitigation • Action to reduce greenhouse gases, and therefore reduce future climate change impacts. Adaptation • Action to minimise the impacts of climate change and to reduce its severity as it happens. Public services, businesses and communities need to adapt to the effects of climate change that are apparent now. An introduction to climate change
International/ UK response: mitigation • UN Framework Convention on Climate Change 1992 • Kyoto Protocol: Agreed 1997,came into force last week • UK Climate Change Programme: commitment to meet Kyoto target to cut its greenhouse gas emissions by 12.5%, and move towards its domestic goal to cut carbon dioxide emissions by 20% below 1990 levels by 2010. • Energy White Paper supports reduction of Greenhouse gases by 60% by 2050 • New UK Sustainable Development Strategy includes as key priority An introduction to climate change
What can we do at a local level? • Use less energy • Use more renewable energy • Encourage others to do the same • Address through the planning system An introduction to climate change
Corporate GHG Emissions Community GHG Emissions Energy Energy used in offices, Leisure Centres, Schools, Depots and Street Lighting Household Energy (HECA), Commercial and Industrial use of energy Transport Domestic, and Industrial/ Commercial distribution Private cars and public transport Vehicle Fleet, Staff Commuting and business travel Waste Waste from corporate buildings (especially organic waste) Household and Industrial/commercial waste Local activities generating GHGs An introduction to climate change
Predicting impacts and responding (Adaptation) • UK Climate Impacts programme • South East Climate Change Partnership: research on climate change threats and opportunities • Guidance on addressing Climate Change through planning • New research into likely impacts on development in growth areas • Toolkit on water resource management An introduction to climate change
Change in average summer and winter temperature (°C) by the 2080s, compared to a recent climate (1961-90), predicted by the Hadley Centre regional climate model. These predictions form the UKCIP2002 Medium-High climate change scenario. An introduction to climate change
What is predicted for the South East? • Hotter, drier summers • Warmer wetter winters • More variable weather • Sea level rise • Increased storm surges • Increased drought An introduction to climate change
What difference does 1°C make? • Our present climate is 5°C hotter than the last ice age • Depending on the scenario, our average temperature is predicted to rise by 2.5° and 4.5°C by 2080 • An extra 1°C increases the growing period for crops, weeds and lawns by 2-3 weeks An introduction to climate change
Local planning for climate change Guidance available from Carbon Trust, DEFRA, ODPM and UKCIP on addressing implications for: • Planning • Housing and Buildings • Transport and Highways • Health and Social Services • Environmental services An introduction to climate change
Summary • Climate change is happening now • We should address climate change to avoid threats and take advantage of opportunities • Key activities to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are energy transport and waste • The impacts of climate change should be planned for now An introduction to climate change
