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  1. An introduction to the IMCORE climate change project Dr Rhoda Ballinger

  2. Topics to be considered: • Introduction to IMCORE • The Severn Estuary IMCORE work programme • Progress update

  3. 1. Introduction to IMCORE

  4. IMCORE: Innovative Management of Europe’s Changing Coastal Resource AIMS: • To promote a transnational, innovative & sustainable approach to reducing the impacts of climate change on coastal resources • To develop adaptation strategies for coastal sites across North West Europe • To demonstrate the effectiveness of various approaches to climate change adaptation including: • High tech visualisation techniques • Futures scenario building

  5. IMCORE partners • Interreg IVb North West Europe project • Partners: • Universities; local authorities; coastal networks • Builds on the COREPOINT Expert Couplets & work

  6. IMCORE outputs • Multimedia Distance Learning Tool • Visualisation tool kit • Related training material • Coastal management data base • Adaptive Management Strategies for each case study

  7. Severn Estuary IMCORE work programme

  8. Severn IMCORE activities • SECCRAG: Science base • Stocktake of corporate responses to climate change • ‘Futures’ scenario building • Education materials

  9. SECCRAG: Science base • Severn Citation Database development • SECCRAG May workshop • Preliminary review of the state of the science • Way forward proposed • UKCP09 Review

  10. Stocktake: Estuary Planning Review • Phase I – Corporate Responses • How are planning bodies embedding climate change into planning practices? • Phase II – Climate Change science base • What climate change science do planning authorities use/want/need? • Planners Workshop (Spring 2010) • Estuary-wide cohesion • Coordinated approaches to C.C. adaptation

  11. ‘Futures’ – Scenario building • Structure how we can plan uncertainties • Portray several different possible/desirable ‘futures’ • Enable multisectoral thinking ‘outside the box’ • Glamorgan University input

  12. 3. Preliminary findings

  13. Science base: UKCP09 review • Provides • Climatic trends to date • Climatic predictions to 2100 • UK National scale • possible to interrogate at local/regional levels • Low, medium and high emissions scenarios • http://ukcp09.defra.gov.uk/ Changes in seasonal means (C) 1960-90 to 2070 - 2100

  14. UKCP09 Sea level rise • Sea level around UK rose by 1mm/yr during 20th Century • Rate increased during 1990s and 2000s • Phillips (2009) prediction: 2.4mm/yr for Bristol Channel Sea Level Rise Plot for Chepstow Sea Level Data 12km Grid

  15. UKCP09 Storm surge data 50 yr trend in Surge Return Level • Small increase in storm surge ht (0.8mm/yr) – LESS than predictions in UKCP02 • Does not include changes in sea level • Note wave height changes: • small increase in winter significant wave height • winter max wave height is more uncertain Storm Surge Data 20km Grid mm/yr

  16. Planning Review:Stocktake of Severn-side plans & policies

  17. Initial findings • Local Authorities play a key role in preparing for climate change (Service Providers, Corporate Managers, Community Leaders) • All signed up to Nottingham / Welsh Declaration on Climate Change & Energy Efficiency • 6 authorities adopted climate change strategies (+ 2 underway) • No real sense of Severn Estuary or estuary cohesion

  18. Policy Trends • Climate change • explicit policies being developed in emerging plans • Flood risk • many policies in adopted and emerging plans (15 of 17) • Coastal zone • dropping off of policies within emerging plans • Shoreline Management Plans • few references in adopted plans (5 of 17); none in emerging plans • Severn Estuary Strategy • few references in adopted plans (4 of 17); none in emerging plans

  19. 4. Final comments

  20. Work in progress Exciting opportunities for partnership working through IMCORE e.g. Climate Change Adaptation – The Gloucestershire Approach (National Indicator (NI) 188 – Planning to adapt to climate change) 2010 events SECRRAG Planners’ meeting Futures workshop Beacons Schools events Dr Rhoda Ballinger BallingerRC@Cf.ac.uk IMCORE: http://imcore.eu/ IMCORE: future development