Methods for evaluating freshwater ecosystem services in support of decision making

1. Methods for evaluating freshwater ecosystem services in support of decision making David Yates (RAP), Claudia Tebaldi (CGD), Kathleen Miller (ESIG), Susi Moser (ESIG) Other Collaborators: David Purkey, Natural Heritage Institute, Sacramento California Hector Galbraith, University of Colorado, Boulder Annette Huber-Lee, SEI/Tellus, MIT Boston Others.. (University of California Davis and Stanford University)

2. Physical Hydrology Watershed Management • Decisions: • Sykes Reservoir • FERC Relicensing • Conjunctive Use • System Operations Climate & Climate Change Integrated Decision Support relevancy credibility Socio-Economics • Decision-Makers • CALFED • State Assembly • California Water Dept • Others legitimacy Ecosystem Services

3. Integrating framework placed in the contextof a “Trade-off” landscape Water for nature Water for agriculture Water quantity Water quality Seasonality of flow Regulation Domestic water Water for recreation Water for industry

4. Physical Hydrology and Water Management Seamlessly integrating watershed hydrologic processes with water resources management.

5. Ecosystem Service Evaluation Ecosystem services

6. H H O O 2 2 Ecosystem Ecosystem Quantity Quantity Goods and Goods and components components • • Quality Quality Services Services processes processes Seasonality Seasonality • • Governance Governance Ecosystem services Ecosystem Service Evaluation

7. Ecosystem services in the SFBW Extractable; Direct Use; Indirect Use

8. Bayesian model gives regional distributions of seasonal changes But what is needed are high resolution time series for the entire watershed Climate and climate change

9. Ecosystem Service Prioritization and Selection Stakeholder Process Ecosystem Service Assessment Properties (ESAPs) ADAPTAT ION Ecosystem Service Indicators/Params (ESIPs) The Inter-Disciplinary Framework Scenario Development: Climate, Land, Pop Water Resources Modeling ESIP/model estimate variance Translation Functions (Models) Change in Eco Service

10. Stylized schematic of Sacramento (garnering credibility) • Sacramento River Basin: • 50+ watersheds • Reservoirs • Central Valley Groundwater • Canals and Diversions • Demands: • Ag. & Urban Atm. • Municipal and Industrial • Reserves, Instream • Regional Diversions

11. WEAP Schematic of Sacramento Watershed

12. WEAP Schematic of Sacramento Watershed

13. Calibration and Validation • Model Evaluation (1961-1999): • Flows Along Mainstem and Tributaries • Reservoir Storage and Release • Trinity Diversion • Agricultural Water Demand • Groundwater Storage Trends • Yolo Bypass Flood Inundation • Sacramento River Water Temperature

14. Streamflow reproduction for select watershed

15. Reservoir Storage Reproduction FOLSOM Reservoir Old Operating Rule New Operating Rule

16. Presently, difficult to determine densities of hydrologic variables Decisions on Adaptation Planning (e.g. new storage infrastructure) Probabilities of Climate Change Probabilities of change in Hydrological Variables “Joint” scenarios flow

17. Presently, difficult to determine densities of hydrologic variables Decisions on Adaptation Planning (e.g. new storage infrastructure) Probabilities of Climate Change Probabilities of change in Hydrological Variables ? P flow T

18. Western North America Climate Scenarios What is the joint probability? CSIRO and CCC heavily weighted in determining the winter distributions

19. Western North America Climate Scenarios But not consistent- These same models are given less weight for the summer distributions

20. A stage along the way to getting at probabilities… Stylized Scenarios using K-nn WmDry WmDryT2 WtWnt WtWntT2 WtWntT4 VWtWntr VWtWntrT3 (Yates et al. 2002)

21. Stylized Sacramento Climate Scenarios

22. River Flow Assumed No Irrigation or Storage Irrigation w/ all Available Storage

23. Water Temperature Assumed No Irrigation or Storage threshold Irrigation w/ all Available Storage threshold

24. Plans for ‘05 • Refine Water Resources Model to able to address relevant issues • FERC Re-licensing of the Yuba, American Bear • Sykes Reservoir Analysis • Others.. • 2. Regional Scenarios • Develop complete probabilistic approach w/ Bivariate Bayesian Model • Refine Ecosystem service evaluation by placing into an uncertainty construct • Legitimacy: Continue to engage relevant stakeholders in model development and application process, especially utility of probabilistic results!