Decision Support Services:

1. Decision Support Services: A Review of NWS Buffalo Operationsfollowing the Crash of Continental Flight 3407 Judith Levan Warning Coordination Meteorologist National Weather Service, Buffalo NY

2. Continental Flight 3407Operated by Colgan AirFebruary 12, 2009 • Departed Newark, NJ at 9:20 p.m. enroute to Buffalo, NY • On Board: • Two pilots • Two flight attendants • 45 passengers

3. Continental Flight 3407February 12, 2009 • Bombardier Dash 8 • Twin-engined turboprop • Length 107’ 9” • Wingspan 93’ 3” • Fuel Capacity 1724 US gal

4. Continental Flight 3407February 12, 2009 • Last communication with flight 10:17 p.m. • Flight 3407 crashed into a house during an instrument approach to Buffalo-Niagara International Airport. 

5. Continental Flight 3407 50 Fatalities (49 on-board, 1 on the ground)

6. Continental Flight 3407

7. WFO BUF Continental Flight 3407

8. Clarence Center VFD Continental Flight 3407

9. Continental Flight 3407 6038 Long Street, Clarence Center

10. Continental Flight 3407 • Lot size: 75’ x 210’ Dash 8 93’ span 107’ long

11. Weather and Forecast (Accident occurred at approx 0320z) • KBUF 130020Z 1300/1324 24015KT 1 1/2SM -SHSN OVC015         FM130200 25014G24KT 5SM -SHSN BR OVC020         FM130600 30012G20KT P6SM BKN015 BKN060         FM130900 30012KT P6SM BKN025         FM131200 32010KT P6SM SCT025 BKN120         FM131800 32006KT P6SM SCT030 • KBUF 130254Z 24015G22KT 3SM -SN BR FEW011 BKN021 OVC027 01/M01 A2979 • AMD KBUF 130322Z 1303/1324 25014G24KT 3SM -SHSN BR OVC020 FM130500 30012G20KT P6SM BKN015 BKN060 FM130900 30012KT P6SM BKN025F FM131200 32010KT P6SM SCT025 BKN120 FM131800 32006KT P6SM SCT030= • KBUF 130354Z 24011KT 3SM -SN BR SCT011 OVC021 01/M01 A2981 Note: WFO BUF Issues TAF Forecasts Every 3 Hours

12. How does one react to disaster? A Review of Support Provided by NWS Buffalo to Emergency Responders

13. Weather Forecast Office • Typically “ramp up” to event • Outlook, Watch, Warning • Conference Calls with Partners • Extra Staffing • Emergency Managers / Responders • React to events

14. On duty Two forecasters Office remodeled in 2008 Workstations focus on Situational Awareness Displays NWS Buffalo NY

15. ~10:20 p.m. Accident Occurs 10:00 p.m. Newscast ends with breaking news of a possible plane crash Continental Flight 3407

16. 10:40 p.m. FAA Approach contacts NWS 10:45 p.m. Forecaster calls office Office begins notifications to Regional Headquarters MIC and WCM are called Archiving of data begins Continental Flight 3407

17. 11:30 p.m. WFO contacts AOMC Initiate Aircraft Incident Report Continental Flight 3407

18. 2:30 a.m. MIC arrives at office 4:30 a.m. WCM arrives at office Between 2:00 and 4:00 am – Numerous media sources begin calling Initial speculation that weather was a cause All inquiries are referred to the FAA Continental Flight 3407

19. By 6:00 a.m. the NWS had a presence at the EOC and began providing on-site support Still considered a fire-fighting operation With no survivors WCM “to-go” kit included Laptop Printer Aircard Cell phone Power Cords On-site Support

20. Continental Flight 3407 • Several forecasters on-station, including the WCM, Incident Meteorologist (IMET) and IMET-trainee, had ICS training • As part of the planning branch, we provided real-time and forecast information • During “down-time” assisted in logging and planning branch activities

21. Erie County utilizes Disaster Lan (D-Lan) for incident management • The program has a weather “page” which displays current conditions, forecasts, radar loops. All of this is NWS data. • Active weather statements/products are also highlighted.

22. Continental Flight 3407 NWS provided weather briefing at ops meetings (held twice daily)

23. Spot Forecasts • An internet-based interactive program • In support of a wildfire – available to any federal, state, tribal or local official • For non-wildfire purposes – available to Public Safety Officials when essential to public safety • 43 spots forecasts from 2/13 thru 2/21

24. Spot Forecasts • Focus transitioned as the recovery operations progressed • Initial forecasts: smoke dispersion / HAZMAT releases • Recovery Operations: temperatures/precipitation • Recovery Operations • Heavy Equipment: winds

25. Continental Flight 3407 • Recovery Operations took five days • Other than firefighting, no work was done during nighttime hours • “Five day recovery plan” was forced by a Friday 2/13 forecast of rain and snow on Thursday 2/19

26. National Transportation Safety Board • Meanwhile, back at the NWS Forecast Office, support provided to NTSB • Aircraft Incident Reports • ASOS Data (observations) • RAOBs (balloon data) • Other Warnings • Short Term Forecasts • Spot Forecasts

27. Summary • Reaction to Disasters Built on Instinct • Instructions To Support Emergency Operations and Station Duty Manuals are Critical • Rely on your “team” • e. g. Regional Headquarters / IMETs • Recent Efforts in Short Term Forecasting and Aviation Support paid off • Situation Awareness Displays and Ops Area reconfiguration were an asset

28. Summary • Prior Rapport Between the Local National Weather Service Office and Emergency Management Community is Essential • Knowledge by EM community of what types of support NWS can provide, including on-site

29. Summary • We were extremely fortunate to have four days of sunny skies and fair weather after the crash. • Community outreach by NWS Staff makes the office a part of the local community

30. Questions?