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IPILPS Workshop ANSTO 18-22 April 2005

IPILPS Forcing & REMOiso Performance by Dr Matt Fischer and Kristof Sturm. IPILPS Workshop ANSTO 18-22 April 2005. Topics. History ECHAM Forcing Variables Performance - Europe - South America - Australia FAR interpolation. Resolution ? Climate ? Isotopes ? Locations ?.

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IPILPS Workshop ANSTO 18-22 April 2005

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  1. IPILPS Forcing & REMOiso Performanceby Dr Matt Fischer and Kristof Sturm IPILPS Workshop ANSTO 18-22 April 2005

  2. Topics • History • ECHAM • Forcing Variables • Performance - Europe - South America - Australia • FAR interpolation

  3. Resolution ? Climate ? Isotopes ? Locations ? History • PILPS, 8 forcing variables: 2 radiation, pressure, 2 wind, temp., r’fall, humidity • IPILPS, where to get isotope var’s from? • Observations?: high resolution data rare, & no information on spatial variance • Models? - MUGCM - GISS - ECHAM - REMOiso

  4. ECHAM • ECMWF model, aimed at climate simulations • ECHAMiso: Spectral resolution : T30, i.e. 3.75º (~ 450 km) • Vertical resolution: 19 levels • REMOiso - RCM nested in ECHAMiso, run in Europe & South America

  5. List

  6. Forcing Variables

  7. Tumbarumba EQY1: Radiation • List

  8. Tumbarumba EQY1: Rainfall

  9. Tumbarumba BC24: variance

  10. Tumbarumba BC24: variance

  11. REMOiso • REMOiso was run for 4 years (except Manaus), at =< 5 minute resolution • EQY1 Equilibrium experiment • BC24 experiment • FAR interpolation (for Manaus)

  12. Topics • History • ECHAM • Forcing Variables • Performance - Europe - South America - Australia • FAR interpolation

  13. Locations • Mid-latitude deciduous forest eg. Munich • 48°N 16°E • Tropical rainforest eg. Manaus • 3°S 60°W • Mid-latitude eucalypt forest eg.Tumbarumba • 35°S 148°E

  14. d18O Obs REMO d18O as good, or bad, asprecipitation amounts (Sturm et al., 2004) Nordeney d18O from April 97 to Feb 99 d18O Europe

  15. Europe

  16. South America • 5 minute simulations, written for 25 cells: • Manaus x9 • Zongo x9 • Rocafuerte x9 • Belem x1 • Izobamba x1

  17. d18O in precipitation

  18. Manaus

  19. Australia • First experiment for this domain • GNIP Stations:Perth, Darwin, Alice Springs, Brisbane, Adelaide, Cape Grim, Melbourne • Tumbarumba x9 • Padthaway x9

  20. January d18O Australia

  21. July d18O Australia

  22. Temperature

  23. Rainfall

  24. Rainfall

  25. d18O

  26. D-excess

  27. Summary so far ... • REMOiso simulations of Europe and South America compare with data from GNIP stations and general climatology • REMOiso simulations of Australia are too wet or dry for some sites, but generally compare with GNIP data, excpet perhaps for D-excess

  28. Topics • History • ECHAM • Forcing Variables • Performance - Europe - South America - Australia • FAR interpolation

  29. Functional autoregression (FAR) • yt = ayt-1 + bxt + et • but, we can replace x & y by orthonormal vector subsets. • y is 5 minute data, x is 6 hour data • Estimation: of the parameters a, b, e(m, s) using method of Damon & Guillas 2001 • Interpolation: Eigenvectors of x & y are ‘stretched & pulled’ over a new set of 6 hour data to form a new set of 5 min data. • Applications: NCEP

  30. Original 5 m. Linear 5 m. FAR 5 min. Temperature & Wind

  31. Temperature & Wind

  32. Original 5 m. Linear 5 m. FAR 5 min. Temperature & Wind

  33. Original 5 m. Linear 5 m. FAR 5 min. Rainfall

  34. Rainfall

  35. Original 5 m. Linear 5 m. FAR 5 min. Rainfall

  36. Future : more comparisons! REMOiso comparison of: • the stochastic properties of storms (duration, intensity, rainout) with Australian BOM data (40 yrs of 6 minute rainfall data, Capital cities only) • Isotopic rainout of individual storms,for BOM data this is an inverse problem using storm data + monthly GNIP data

  37. Conclusions • REMOiso, a regional climate model, produces monthly isotope values in 3 domains which compare with GNIP data, except, perhaps for D-excess • FAR can be used to downscale observational data; and is based on functional relationships between different timescales, calibrated with an isotope model.

  38. model

  39. Original 5 m. Linear 5 m. FAR 5 min. FAR

  40. Original 5 m. Linear 5 m. FAR 5 min. FAR

  41. ‘ • List

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