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Risk-Perception and Risk-Evaluation in a No-Data- Decision-Making-Situation

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  1. Risk-Perception and Risk-Evaluation in a No-Data- Decision-Making-Situation Thomas FenzlThomas Brudermann Department for Economic PsychologyAlpen-Adria Universität Klagenfurt Risk-perception and risk-evaluation in a no-data-decision-making-situation

  2. Related Work • Other-Directedness (Riesmann 1952) • Bounded Rationality (Simon 1957) • Behavioral Economics (Pelzmann 2002) • Behavior in No-data-situations (Schachter & Singer 1962, Hanson and Putler 1995, Salganik et al. 2006, Olsson et al. 2007, Bossaerts 2007) Risk-perception and risk-evaluation in a no-data-decision-making-situation

  3. Aims and Objectives • How do people deal with risk? • in novel situations • when information is lacking • and affective arousal is increased • How do people perceive and evaluate risk? • Which role does the behavior of other people play? • How can we exclude laboratory side-effects? Risk-perception and risk-evaluation in a no-data-decision-making-situation

  4. Methods • Real world situation: oral exam, n=59 • Novelty: 2 different examiners • well-known, notorious professor (P1) • unknown, friendly assistant (P2) • 3-stage experimental design • decision • manipulation • post-survey Risk-perception and risk-evaluation in a no-data-decision-making-situation

  5. Legend: E1, E2: Entrances P1, P2: Examiners Lecture Hall E1 E2 Waiting Area P1 Candidates Waiting Area P2 Candidates Adjacent Room: Exams without Audience P1 P2 Risk-perception and risk-evaluation in a no-data-decision-making-situation

  6. Results – Stage 1 (Decision) • 2/3 of the participants opted for the less attractive, but familiar alternative (notorious professor) • Only 1/3 chose the new alternative with the friendly, young, but unfamiliar assistant • Motivation: e.g. less queue time Risk-perception and risk-evaluation in a no-data-decision-making-situation

  7. Results – Stage 2 (manipulation) • Manipulation: • First three candidates of unfamiliar examiner returned silent, bleak and depressed from their exam • Two candidates revised their previous decision for the unfamiliar examiner • 17% of the candidates revised their previous decision for the unfamiliar examiner in consequence of the manipulation Risk-perception and risk-evaluation in a no-data-decision-making-situation

  8. Results – Stage 3 (post-survey) χ2=6,838; df=1; α=5% Risk-perception and risk-evaluation in a no-data-decision-making-situation

  9. Conclusions and Open Problems • „Dummy“-Strategy (Observations) • playing kids, professional water-skiers, rats • Wide variety of reactions to the novel situation • „Play it the save way“: Avoid attractive, but novel situations • Other-Directed: perceive and evaluate risk by observing others • Self-confidence & preparation: Trusting in own abilities and taking chance despite warning signals Risk-perception and risk-evaluation in a no-data-decision-making-situation

  10. Discussion Risk-perception and risk-evaluation in a no-data-decision-making-situation