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Participation

Participation. Voting Campaign Activity Volunteer Contribute money (corporations are people) Contacting officials Group Activity Protest. Participation. What trends in each mode? How does US compare? Which mode has greatest effect?. Participation. Trends

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Participation

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  1. Participation • Voting • Campaign Activity • Volunteer • Contribute money (corporations are people) • Contacting officials • Group Activity • Protest

  2. Participation • What trends in each mode? • How does US compare? • Which mode has greatest effect?

  3. Participation • Trends • Voting is way down in most nations • But in US, we elect lots… • Campaign activity is flat • 3% volunteer • Donating flat in US (about 10%) • Activity of the wealthiest • But trying to persuade others is way

  4. % who tried to influence how others vote Is this meaningful participation?

  5. Participation • Trends • Contacting officials up (?) • People say they will, but do they • When? How? (email?) • Group activity (30%) • Dalton says it’s up, • Putman it’s down • Does Internet act as social group?

  6. Participation • Trends • Protesting up? • Most sign petitions, up most places • Boycott up US, GB • Demonstrate, way up in FR & Germany • 17% in US • Occupy down/flat • 2-4% in US • Strike down/flat

  7. Participation • Again, what has most consequences for what government does? • Which is easiest? • What differences between how wealthy and others participate?

  8. Voter Turnout • Who votes, who doesn’t? • Why? • Why a decline? • Is there a decline? • What proposals to increase turnout?

  9. Voter Turnout in US • Is there a turnout problem? • In US • about 50-55% vote in presidential elections • up in 2004 & 2008 (+60%) • about 30-35% vote in congressional elections • Washington state above the national average

  10. US Turnout Compared • US turnout low compared to other est. democracies • Other democracies also show decline

  11. US Turnout Compared • 1950s vs. 1990s /2000 • Few est. democracies have turnout increasing

  12. Voter Turnout • In the US • a steady decline (maybe) • turnout 10% lower 2000 than 1960 • turnout much lower now than 1900 • why ?? • today, a lower % of eligible voters participate • farmore eligible voters now

  13. Turnout Trend 1948 - 2000 • High rates 1952 - 1968 • Decline post 1972 M. McDonald data

  14. Turnout Trend through 2008 • Large change in VAP vs. VEP turnout • Since 1980 • Pool of eligible voters smaller vs. voting age population M. McDonald data

  15. Voter Turnout • 1896 90%  drop to 62% in 1904 • voter registration laws • Jim Crow laws • 1916 61%  drop to 42% in 1920 • suffrage to women • size of eligible electorate doubled • 1936 59%  drop to 51% in 1948 • WWII • 1968 60%  drop to 52% 1972 • suffrage granted to 18 y/olds

  16. Voter Turnout in US • 1960 = 63% in pres (47% in 1962) • 1964 = 62% in pres (48% in 1966) • 1968 = 61% in pres (47% in 1970) • 1984 = 54% in pres (36% in 1986) • 1988 = 50% in pres (36% in 1990) • 1996 = 49% in pres (36% in 1998) • 2000 = 51% in pres (34% in 2002)

  17. Voter Turnout in US • Why a decline since 1890s? • Old numbers from a different context • high mobilization • labor intensive parties • limited pool of eligible voters • fraud • more mobilization then vs. now?

  18. Voter Turnout in US • Why a declinesince 1960s? • Demise of parties • campaigns now capital intensive (ads) • less direct contacts w/ voters • candidate centered politics • “party building” efforts (soft money) for GOTV had little effect

  19. Voter Turnout in US • Why a decline? • Demise of competition • Fewer US House races competitive vs. 1960s • even with demise of one-party south • Fewer state legislative seats competitive • Campaign activity concentrated in rare, competitive districts (and states)

  20. Voter Turnout in US • Why a decline? • Demise of Competition • Effects of competition • 10% more competitive presidential race in state = 1% more turnout • ie: Ohio (2%) vs (22%) = 2% more • 2 initiatives = 1% more • Senate race, Gov race...

  21. Voter Turnout in US • Why increase in 2004 & 2008 • Are the stakes higher? • 2000 election result? • some new issue? • candidate effects?

  22. Voter Turnout in US • Why a decline? • Regulatory barriers • 30 day advance registration • vote only on day of election • must vote at specific location • limits on use of mail, absentee ballots • Prohibition on felons voting

  23. Barriers to voting • Lowest • ND, OR, UT, IA, ME, VT, NH, CA • Highest • MS, AL, KY, VA, MD, FL, TX, LA

  24. Voter Turnout in US • Why a decline • Regulator barriers • What effects of Election Day Registration (EDR)? • Seven states • 4.5% increase in presidential elections • 2.0% increase in midterm

  25. Voter Turnout in US • Election Day Registration • Idaho, Iowa, Maine, Minnesota, Montana, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Wisconsin, Wyoming (ND doesn’t require registration) • In WA • proposal to have shorter pre-reg. period but not EDR

  26. Voter Turnout in US • Election Day Registration • Why bother? • makes voting more convenient • Who will take advantage? • ??? • ???

  27. Voter Turnout in US • Election Day Registration • Proponents: • Democratic Party • Opponents: • County Auditors • Bureaucratic nightmare • requires more staff • vote provisional ballot? • check if registered/voted in other county

  28. Voter Turnout • Felon disenfranchisement • Two states do not ban from voting (Maine and Vermont) • Some states restore after release / probation (ex Felons) • Some states make ban permanent (unless govt. approves individual’s restoration)

  29. Voter Turnout • Felon Laws • Adoption corresponds with extension of rights to Black Americans • Before 1860, 12 of 21 states w/ laws • By 1890s, 38 of 45 had laws • type of crimes covered changed

  30. Voter Turnout • Effects of Felon laws • There might not be a decline in turnout • Levels of criminal punishment in US way, way up • More felons than ever (Why??) • 1.4% of Voting age pop by 2000 • was .5% before 1982 • 8% of US Voting age population by 2000 • up from 2% in 1966

  31. Voter Turnout in the US • Why a decline • Regulatory Barriers • Not a factor growing over time • Easier to register now, easier to vote by mail • EDR explains variation in an election, not since 1960.

  32. Voter Turnout in US • Maybe no decline? • Yes, lower after 1960s - 2000 • Decline mostly outside of south • Low turnout rate of young (post 1972) accounts for 1/4 of decline • VAP vs. VEP....

  33. Turnout 2004, 2008 • Change VEP • 2008 2004 • White 66.1% 63.8% -1.1 • Black 65.2% 60.3% +4.9 • Hispanic 49.9% 47.2% +2.7 • Asian 47.0% 44.7% +2.4 • All 63.6% 63.8% -0.2

  34. Turnout by Age • Not quite linear • Young voters lowest turnout • Youth vote up in 2004 (red line) & 2008 charles franklin data

  35. Turnout by Age • Not quite linear • Young voters lowest turnout • Youth vote up in 2004 (red line) & 2008 charles franklin data

  36. Turnout by Age • Youngest cohort largest segment of the electorate • Greatest under-representation in voting

  37. Turnout by Age • Under-representation? • Youth vote by party • 2000 51% Dem • 2004 54% Dem • 2008 66% Dem

  38. Decline or not... • Many, most don’t vote • In many nations, clear decline • Where are the voters going? • Cohort vs. lifecycle effects

  39. Voter Turnout • So why don’t young people vote? • efficacy • life experiences re: politics • campaigns don’t care about them? • ‘Rock to Vote’, “Vote or Die”? • youth vote way up in place where competitive races (stakes are higher) • youth vote 10% nationally in 2004

  40. Vote or Die? • Campaign spending, ads, targeting youth vote vs... • Generic, context-free “youth” campaigns

  41. Voter Turnout • So, who votes? • Education • Age (old people rule) • Cohort and life cycle effects • Partisans (not independents) • Income • Efficacy • OK, so what drives efficacy

  42. Voter Turnout • When & Why do they vote? • Regular voters • older people and well educated • Peripheral voters • younger people and less-educated

  43. Voter turnout • Competitive elections mobilize • larger effect on young & less educated • Presidential race 2004 • person living in uncompetitive state w/ 10th grade ed. had .46 prob. of voting • person in Ohio w/ 10th grade ed .55 prob.

  44. Voter Turnout • Midterm election (2002) • 33 y/o person in state w/ no US Senate race = .37 prob. of voting • 33 y/o in state w/ most competitive Senate race .77 prob. of voting • for 62 y.o., high prob. of voting anyway

  45. Voter Turnout in US • What difference would it make if turnout was higher? • Composition of electorate change? • EDR, Vote by Mail, etc. seem to increase turnout but not change electorate • Competitive elections seem to increase turnout of everyone • greater effect on young, less educated

  46. Voter Turnout in US • What happens if higher turnout • and low participating groups show up? • Young people • Less affluent • Ex-felons

  47. Voter Turnout • Uggen & Manza • Because felons are drawn from ranks of poor and racial minorities, laws take votes from Dems. • Estimate that 2000 Pres. election would have been reversed • Estimate that Dems would have controlled US Senate after 1984 if not for these laws • Thus changed composition of US Courts

  48. Young voters nominated Obama • Young voters (under 30 in 2004) • Born post 1975 = 60% D, 30% R • Born 1943 - 58 = 44% D, 46% R • 2008 Primaries • Ds NH 18-24 60% Obama, 22% HRC • Ds NH over 65 32% Obama, 48% HRC • Ds FL 18-24 49% Obama, 39% HRC • Ds FL over 65 24% Obama, 59% HRC • Ds IA 17 - 29 57% Obama, 11% HRC • Ds IA over 65 18% Obama, 45% HRC

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