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National Energy Modeling System (NEMS)

National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). QIHUI Qi. content. Overview of NEMS - Model structure - assumption and Data - Model solution Strengths and weaknesses of NEMS Key results from the AEO2010 reference case. Overview of NEMS. What is NEMS.

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National Energy Modeling System (NEMS)

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  1. National Energy Modeling System(NEMS) QIHUI Qi

  2. content • Overview of NEMS - Model structure - assumption and Data - Model solution • Strengths and weaknesses of NEMS • Key results from the AEO2010 reference case

  3. Overview of NEMS • What is NEMS compute based energy economic modeling system interactions Macro-Economic Energy World energy Domestic energy Import export supply conversion demand price

  4. Model structure energy, economic, environmental impacts on the United States • How does NEMS works National Energy Modeling System Source: The National Energy Modeling System: An Overview 2009

  5. Assumption and Data • Assumptions • Macroeconomic and Financial Factors • International Energy Market • U.S. Demographics • Energy related policy (See Energy related Policies and its handling in NEMS ) • Supply and Demand side Technology Characteristics • Behavioral and Technological Choice criteria(See Technology categories, characteristics and choice model) • Energy Resources Availability and Costs Electricity related polices include polices about the environment, capacity requirement, economic incentive, business and operation, distributed generation and smart grid

  6. Electricity supply technology options summary FGD: Flue Gas Desulfurization Note1:The existing coal-fuel plants also combined with the pollution control equipment (cold-side ESP, Hot-side ESP, baghouse, dry, scrubber, wet scrubber, SCR, activated carbon injection) Note 2: Linear programing and market share algorithm are used to determine planning decisions for the electric power industry

  7. Cost and performance characteristics for new electricity generating technology Source: U. S. Energy Information Administration/Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2010

  8. Cost and performance characterizes change by different scenarios and time(See source below for full information) Source: U. S. Energy Information Administration/Assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2010

  9. Assumption transport modes in Transportation Module • Total transportation energy consumption is the sum of energy use in eight transport modes: • light-duty vehicles (cars and light trucks), further subdivided into personal usage and commercial fleet consumption • commercial light trucks (8,501-10,000 lbs gross vehicle weight), • freight trucks (>10,000 lbs gross vehicle weight), • buses, • freight and passenger aircraft, • freight and passenger rail, • freight shipping • miscellaneous transport such as recreational boating. Standard Technology Matrix for transport modes are defined in the assumptions to the Annual Energy Outlook 2010

  10. Assumption and Data • Data: • Exogenous (outside Inputs) • Endogenous (Inputs from NEMS) • Output Source: The National Energy Modeling System: An Overview 2009

  11. NEMS Output: Energy projections of annual Metrics Source: introduction to SAIC-NEMS- A Fully integrating Model of U.S. Energy Economy Science Applications International Corporation 2009

  12. Model solution • How is NEMS solved Energy Price Source: introduction to SAIC-NEMS- A Fully integrating Model of U.S. Energy Economy Science Applications International Corporation 2009 Energy Demand/supply See Integrating Module of the National Energy Modeling System: Model Documentation 2009 about the solution procedure

  13. Model solution • Carbon dioxide emission calculation National Energy Modeling System

  14. content • Overview of NEMS - Model structure - assumption and Data - Model solution • Strengths and weaknesses of NEMS • Key results from the AEO2010 reference case

  15. Strengths and weaknesses of NEMS-Attribute analysis Source: National Long-Term Investment Planning for Energy and Transportation Systems

  16. Regional model

  17. Strengths and weaknesses of NEMS-Attribute analysis

  18. Strengths and weaknesses of NEMS-Attribute analysis

  19. Strengths and weaknesses of NEMS-Attribute analysis

  20. Strengths and weaknesses of NEMS-Attribute analysis

  21. Strengths and weaknesses of NEMS-Attribute analysis

  22. Strengths and weaknesses of NEMS-Attribute analysis

  23. strengths

  24. weaknesses

  25. content • Overview of NEMS - Model structure - assumption and Data - Model solution • Strengths and weaknesses of NEMS • Key results from the AEO2010 reference case

  26. Key results from the AEO2010 reference case • See The U.S. Energy Outlook April 6th, 2010 U.S. Department of Energy IHS Global Insights, Inc. (IHSGI) produces a comprehensive energy projection with a time horizon similar to that of AEO2010

  27. Key results from the AEO2010 reference case

  28. The minemouth coal prices in west increases slowly with the annual price growth of 0.5-0.7 precent Source: annual energy outlook 2010

  29. Key results from the AEO2010 reference case

  30. Key results from the AEO2010 reference case • See The U.S. Energy Outlook April 6th, 2010 U.S. Department of Energy

  31. Key results from the AEO2010 reference case • See The U.S. Energy Outlook April 6th, 2010 U.S. Department of Energy

  32. Growth in transportation energy useslows relative to historical trend From 2008 to 2035 average annual rate of 0.6 percent slower than the 1.3-percent average rate from 1980 to 2008. Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2010

  33. Key results from the AEO2010 reference case

  34. Key results from the AEO2010 reference case

  35. Key results from the AEO2010 reference case • See The U.S. Energy Outlook April 6th, 2010 U.S. Department of Energy

  36. Conclusion • NEMS is a bottom up model which covers topics including energy, economy and environment • NEMS is set up to simulate and project the energy system and its complex interaction between the outside environment. • Although the purpose of the NEMS is different from our project’s, its handling about energy system gives us a good reference when we set up our own model.

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