Gulf States Christina Durano, Alex Lasky, Amera Ratliff, and Gabe Steinmeyer
Executive Summary • Saudi Arabia • Saudi Arabian Police Shot Shia Man during Protest • Qatar • Intensified Qatari Involvement in Syrian Conflict • Bahrain • Greater Military Alliances to Prevent Iranian Interference • United Arab Emirates - Greater Military Alliances to Defend Against Iranian Threat
Saudi Arabia • Saudi police shot dead a Shia protester bringing the death count to 12 • 18-year-old Ali al-Marar and injuring six others • Occurred in Qatif, located in the Eastern Province • Suffered unrest since early 2011 • Saudi Shias lack same job opportunities as Sunnis, neighborhoods receive inadequate state investment, and authorities stop them from building places of worship • Accused Shia power in Iran for causing the unrest • Activists claim the police had shot blindly at people on rooftops • Security patrol claimed they were under fired and attacked in self defense
Saudi Arabia • Predictions • Protests will continue until action is taken to better the livelihood of the Shia population in Saudi • King Abdullah will try to “appease” all, but Wahhabi rule will not sway very much • Religious clerics will dislike the inclusion (if it occurs) of Shiites into the government
Qatar Types of Qatari Involvement in Syrian Conflict - Deployment of terrorists - Financial aid - Weapons supplies - Favorable media coverage of rebels Reasons for Qatari involvement in Syria - Increased regional and international influence - Support of Islamist movement - Competition with Saudi Arabia for influence in Syria if rebels topple Assad - Regional blow to Iran
Qatar Predictions: - Continued financial and weapon aid to Syria - Intensified aid as Assad regime loses ground
Bahrain • Strong relationship with U.S. • U.S. 5th Fleet • Massive arms sale • In talks for sale of a Naval Frigate • Greater GCC Cooperation • GCC supports Bahrain regime in current protests • Member states will combine militaries into one single command structure. • Bahrain to host joint Military base
Bahrain • Predictions • Expect greater cooperation among GCC members as meddling by Iran continues • Do not expect Bahrain Government to fall due to protests or an escalation to full out rebellion. • Expect neighborly relations with Iran to grow more distant as Iran supports protestors.
United Arab Emirates • Arms Purchasing from US - Raytheon Company to provide AN/TPY-2 radars as component to Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defense system. - AN/TPY-2: Ratheyon’s mobile X-band radar that discerns threats from non-threats and delivers data to fire and communications control. - Contract valued at $582.5 million and will be provided through 2018. - Emirates also purchased 16 Chinook helicopters, valued at $939 million (New York Times).
United Arab Emirates • Interest in Arms Purchasing from UK - UAE and UK to develop “strategic air defence relationship” (Al-Jazeera). - UAE has shown significant interest in purchasing up to 60 BAE Systems-built Eurofighter Typhoon fighter jets (Al-Jazeera). - Exports from UK to Gulf can be valued at approximately $27.44 billion (Al-Jazeera).
United Arab Emirates • Nuclear Energy Cooperation Deal with Russia - Monday, December 17: Russia agrees to supply uranium/conversion enrichment services to UAE (World Nuclear News). - UAE’s first nuclear power plant under newly signed agreement (World Nuclear News). - Russia’s Techsnabexport (Tenex) has agreed to 15-year contract with first deliveries scheduled for 2014 (World Nuclear News). - Deal valued at $3 billion (The Moscow Times).
United Arab Emirates • Saturday, December 29 (Strait of Hormuz): Iran simulates enemy invasion on Iranian territorial waters (The Iran Project). • Part of three island dispute between UAE and Iran: - Abu Musa - Greater Tunb - Lesser Tunb • Iran claims absolute rule over islands on the grounds of “gentleman’s agreemant” with UK (Al-Jazeera). • Located in strategic zone; occupation of islands means “domination of sea lanes entering and exiting” the Gulf (Al-Jazeera).
Predictions • UAE will continue to amass weapons and military alliances internationally. • Iran will not relent due to military growth in other Gulf countries. • Iran will increase military strength and alliances with African coastal regions.