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Mohsen Malaki Program and Consulting Manager Communications Group IDC CEMA. Arabcom 2004 in Beirut, Lebanon June 16-17, 2004. MEA & Gulf States Telecom & Mobile. Trends and Outlook. Telecoms Services in MEA MEA is Small on a Global Scale….

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Mohsen malaki program and consulting manager communications group idc cema

Mohsen Malaki

Program and Consulting ManagerCommunications Group


Arabcom 2004 in Beirut, Lebanon

June 16-17, 2004

MEA & Gulf StatesTelecom & Mobile

Trends and Outlook

Telecoms services in mea mea is small on a global scale
Telecoms Services in MEAMEA is Small on a Global Scale…

Telecoms Services Spending by Region in 2002 (US$Bn)


$30.6 Bn


$224.1 Bn


$325.2 Bn


$246.0 Bn

Gulf States

$14.5 Bn


$41.4 Bn


$66.6 Bn

Gulf States: Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, Iran

Worldwide Total: $934.5 Bn

Source: IDC, 2003

Overall growth rates around the world but mea has the highest growth rate globally
Overall Growth Rates Around the World…but MEA has the highest growth rate globally

Telecoms Services Spending

Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) by Region (03-07)








Gulf States: Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, Iran

Worldwide Growth: 4.7%

Source: IDC, 2004

Mea gulf states telecom mobile

MEA & Gulf States: Strong GrowthHigh Growth in Fastest Growing Regions



CAGR (03-07): 9.8%

Total MEA




CAGR (03-07): 9.4%

USD Billions



Gulf States


CAGR (03-07): 8.9%








Source: IDC, 2004

Gulf states market size by service voice goes mobile data picks up
Gulf States Market Size by ServiceVoice Goes Mobile, Data picks Up

Telecoms Service Spending,

2003-07 ($Bn)

  • Weakness in telephony

  • Voice goes mobile

  • Data services picking up in fixed-line market

  • Internet is becoming essential

  • Broadband is beginning to take off in smaller states

  • From $14.5bn to $24bn total spending between 2002-2007

Source: IDC, 2004

Selected mea mobile markets a comparative view

Smaller Gulf States

Under-penetrated Markets

Selected MEA Mobile MarketsA Comparative View

Mobile Penetration End 2003

  • Smaller Gulf States are MEA’s Leading Markets

    • Approaching subscription saturation

    • Drives operators to upgrade networks and launch new (data) services

    • Operators working on customer loyalty, increasing ARPU/ASPS

  • Less-developed markets

    • Now entering growth surge

    • Focus on coverage, voice services, rapid pre-paid expansion

Source: IDC, 2004

End user spending on mobile services shifting toward mobile data
End User Spending on Mobile ServicesShifting Toward Mobile Data

Gulf States Mobile Spending on Voice and Data Services, 2002-2007 ($ Bn)

Data Spending

Grows Faster Than




Data as %

of Total


Voice Spending

Growth Slows




Data Spending includes SMS, MMS, data traffic, content

Source: IDC, 2003

Impact on mobile equipment market opportunities in both 2g and 2 5g equipment
Impact On Mobile Equipment MarketOpportunities in Both 2G and 2.5G Equipment

  • Saudi Arabia, Iran, Oman still have huge amount of 2G investment ahead of them (coverage, capacity, 1 new licensee in each during 2004)

  • The most-developed markets are repositioning investment

    • These markets are steadily increasing 2.5G capacity (incl. GPRS, EDGE in Kuwait & Bahrain) and services (MMS)

    • Limited commercial launch of UMTS in UAE & Bahrain, but will be slow to grow in Gulf-- unless there is a sudden success story in UAE/Bahrain or West Europe

Fixed to mobile substitution traffic is migrating now displacement soon
Fixed-to-Mobile SubstitutionTraffic is migrating now, displacement soon…

Fixed and Mobile Penetration End 2003

  • High-Penetration Markets

    • Mobile substitution -- puts downward pressure on fixed telephony (traffic, connections)

    • Revenue deterioration in fixed-line telephony

    • Efforts to expand other services (MDNS, BB) bearing fruit

  • Low-Connectivity Markets

    • Matter of time before same effects in Iran, Oman, KSA

    • Fixed-line operator must act now: cut fixed-line OPEX, improve service quality, focus on data, fixed-mobile Convergence

    • Leverage carrier services in liberalized market

Source: IDC, 2003

Expectations for 2004 liberalization in some service evolution in others
Expectations for 2004Liberalization in some, Service Evolution in Others

  • Iran:

  • 1 GSM Operator License, 2nd?

  • Launch of prepaid GSM

  • Regulator introduced

  • Introduction of BB DSL

  • Incumbent investing in data network, mobile coverage, fixed line expansion

  • Kuwait:

  • Introduction of EDGE

  • Competition moves to MMS and mobile data services

  • Operators continue investing abroad

  • Qatar:

  • QTel launches data center and related services

  • Introduction of MMS and mobile data services

  • Bahrain:

  • GSM Competition’s 1st year

  • Liberalization of IA, data

  • Regulatory: LLU, NP

  • Saudi Arabia:

  • 1 GSM Operator License

  • 2 Data Infrastructure & Services Licenses

  • Incumbent focuses on mobile coverage, customer loyalty (CRM), sales channel strategy, carrier services & interconnection

  • Oman:

  • 1 GSM Operator License

  • Reorganization and privatization of incumbent

  • UAE:

  • Etisalat introduces UMTS

  • Testing new mobile data services for enterprise and consumer

  • BB picks up, Etisalat focuses on SME BB penetration

Idc s gulf states coverage consulting and advisory services
IDC’s Gulf States CoverageConsulting and Advisory Services

  • Advisory Services

  • MEA Telecommunications CIS Subscription Service

  • MEA IP Services CIS Subscription Service (Planned 2005)

  • Upcoming Studies:

    • Gulf States Mobile Communications Services 2004-2008 Forecast

    • Gulf States Data Communications Services 2004-2008 Forecast

  • Consulting Services

  • IDC’s Wireless and Mobile/NGN Expertise Centers provide:

    • Market sizing, analysis, segmentation

    • Business plan development

    • Rating Potential Partners, implementing Partnering Initiative

    • Go-to-Market, Market Entry

Mea gulf states telecom mobile

Thank You

Mohsen Malaki

Program and Consulting Manager

Communications Group



Tel.: +420 221 423 140