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Dan Barclay November 2005

This paper by Dan Barclay explores the political realignment in the U.S. from 1952 to 2004 using data to quantify the model and identify patterns. Despite past failures in realignment theories, the study aims to provide a fresh perspective on the topic. The analysis is based on a two-dimensional issues axis, incorporating key election cycles and political ideologies shifts over time. By delving into historical electoral data, public opinion trends, and party positions, the study seeks to offer insights into how and why partisan realignment occurs, debunking or supporting existing theories in the realm of political science.

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Dan Barclay November 2005

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  1. Pretentious Pre-Colon Phrase: Mapping U.S. Partisan Realignment, 1952-2004 Dan Barclay November 2005 Dan Barclay

  2. Abstract • So there’s this paper that models political realignment on a two-dimensional issues axis. • Problem is, it doesn’t have any data to back it up. • I’ll be bringing in data to quantify the model. Dan Barclay

  3. An Optical Depiction Dan Barclay

  4. Nifty Graph Dan Barclay

  5. Nifty Graph Dan Barclay

  6. Literature Review • Periodicity • Adams (1918): 12-year cycles from 1776-1812 • Schlesinger, Sr. (1949): Projected cycles from 1947-1962, 1962-1978, 1978-1993 • “Critical elections” • Certain elections such as 1896 and 1932 are “flash points” that see abrupt changes in ideologies • Discontinuous model Dan Barclay

  7. Literature Review II: First Blood • Attempted link to congressional politics • Brady (1982): Congressional policy changes can be explained through realignment theory. • “Our field isn’t credible, so let’s try to support it with one that is!” • Epic failure Dan Barclay

  8. Literature Review III: Reign of Chaos • The public opinion challenge • Stimson (1998): When you actually look at the data, realignment theory doesn’t work at all. You people are dumb. • Mayhew (2002): Yeah, what he said. • Huge pile-on; realignment lies in tatters Dan Barclay

  9. Literature Review IV: A New Hope • Maybe realignment theory will work if we use models that are continuous, not discontinuous. • Smith (2002): If we assume the two parties have gradually traded places in the past few decades, public opinion data doesn’t tear us a new one. • Miller and Schofield (2003): The paper I’m plagiarizing building upon Dan Barclay

  10. Miller and Schofield (2003) • Theory • Regressions show that the two parties have gradually changed places, which can’t be accounted for by white noise and must therefore be due to realignment factors • Mechanism • Each party continually tries to outflank the other to appeal to groups of swing voters • Two dimensions, economic and social Dan Barclay

  11. That Nifty Graph Again Dan Barclay

  12. 1896 Dan Barclay

  13. 1932-60 Dan Barclay

  14. 1960-64 Dan Barclay

  15. 1964-68 Dan Barclay

  16. 2005 Dan Barclay

  17. My Project • Quantify Schofield and Miller • Roll call data = relative density of each quadrant • Elections data = area occupied by each party • Public opinion data = frontier between the parties • Party platform data = point position of each party • I code national platforms on a 1 / 0 / -1 basis • Regress the results • Make projections Dan Barclay

  18. Validity Problems • None. Dan Barclay

  19. Methodology • Roll call: Use the data I already have • Elections: Acquire from NES • Public opinion: Acquire from NES • Party platforms: Code the data I already have • Regression: Use STATA Dan Barclay

  20. Validity Problems • Sampling error, from public opinion data • Personal bias, from coding party platforms • 1952-2004 time period dictated by data availability Dan Barclay

  21. Methodology • Roll call: Use the data I already have • Elections: Acquire from NES • Public opinion: Acquire from NES • Party platforms: Code the data I already have • Regression: Use STATA • Arbitrary designation of social issues as the independent variable and economic issues as the dependent variable Dan Barclay

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