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The Commodities Boom in North Asia

The Commodities Boom in North Asia. Dr Helen B Bendall University of Technology, Sydney ICHCA 2008. World GDP Growth & World Exports. World Exports Volumes & Values (USD). Asia’s Role in World Trade. International Seaborne Trade Mt. Source: UNCTAD 2007.

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The Commodities Boom in North Asia

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  1. The Commodities Boom in North Asia Dr Helen B Bendall University of Technology, Sydney ICHCA 2008

  2. World GDP Growth & World Exports

  3. World ExportsVolumes & Values (USD)

  4. Asia’s Role in World Trade

  5. International Seaborne Trade Mt Source: UNCTAD 2007 * Main Bulks subset of Dry Cargo – iron ore, grain, coal, bauxite, alumina, phosphate

  6. Major Coal Exporters 2006 Thermal, Metallurgical % World Share Source: UNCTAD 2007

  7. Thermal Coal Imports Mt

  8. Thermal Coal Trade China Mt Source: ABARE 2007

  9. Thermal Coal Exports Mt

  10. Metallurgical Coal Exports Mt Source; ABARE,2007

  11. World Steel Producers 2006 Source: MariTrade from IISI2008

  12. Metallurgical Coal Imports Mt Source: ABARE 2007

  13. Australia’s Exports to North Asia Coal by Volume (Mt) Source: MariTrade / ABS 2008

  14. Australian Coal Exports 2005-6Value AUD’000 Source: DFAT 2006

  15. Australia Brazil World Iron Ore Exporters % World Share Source: UNCTAD 2007

  16. Iron Ore Exports Mt Source: ABARE 2007, *UNCTAD 2007,

  17. Iron ore Imports Mt Source: ABARE 2007,*The Economist 2008

  18. Australia’s Exports to North Asia Iron Ore by Volume (Tonnes) Source: MariTrade 2008

  19. Bauxite Exporters Source: UNCTAD 2007

  20. Bauxite - Alumina Exports Australia-North Asia in AUDm DFAT 2007

  21. Australian Aluminium ExportsAUD m Source ABARE 2008

  22. Alumina Importers/Exporters Exporters Importers

  23. Aluminium Output 2000 - 2007 YOY, M’ tonnes annualised Source: Lehman Brothers 2008

  24. Copper Demand 2005 - 2007 YOY, ‘000 Tonnes Source: Lehman Brothers 2008

  25. Australia’s Exports to North Asia Copper by Volume (Mt) Source: MariTrade / ABS 2008

  26. Stainless Steel Production and Nickel Cash 2000 - 2007 Source: Lehman Brothers,2008

  27. Nickel/Nickel Alloys Exports Australia - North Asia in AUDm Source: DFAT 2007

  28. Australian Nickel Exports Mt Source: MariTrade

  29. Australian Wheat Exports North Asia in AUDm DFAT 2007

  30. The FutureTrade in Dry Bulk Commodities North Asia Up? Down?

  31. Will commodity exporting countries, such as Australia, continue to ride on the bow wave of North Asian dry bulk carriers?

  32. Uncertainties • World Economic Outlook • supply and demand for dry-bulk commodities • sub-prime fallout • Economic Outlook North Asia • South Korea • Japan • Economic Outlook China • inflation • “brownouts” • environmental concerns – air, water

  33. World Largest Economies in 2050 by GDP BRIC Economies Brazil Russia India China (including Japan) Source: Goldman Sachs 2001

  34. Largest Regions by GDP in 2050 Source: Goldman Sachs 2001

  35. GDP per Capita in 2050 Source: Goldman Sachs 2001

  36. Wealthiest Countries per Capita 2015inUSD (base value 2000 USD) Source: USDA 2000

  37. Economic Outlook – South Korea Source: Lehman Brothers, May 2008

  38. Economic Outlook - Japan Source: Lehman Brothers, May 2008

  39. Australian Trade 2006/7AUD Billion AFR 24/4/08

  40. Economic Outlook - China Source: Lehman Brothers May,2008,

  41. China GDP % Growth Source: AFR April 2008

  42. Economic Outlook - China Source: Lehman Brothers May,2008

  43. Real GDP % YOY Source: Lehman Brothers,2008

  44. Largest Controlled Fleets‘000s DWT – 1 Jan 2007

  45. Asian Market Share of World ShipsDwt millions Source: Lloyds Register,,UNCTAD,2007.

  46. Asian Bulk Carriers (Ex Japan) 1 Jan 2007 Source: UNCTAD 2007

  47. Asian Percentage of World Fleetby Flag of Registration GT ’000s Source: Lloyds Register, UINCTAD,2007

  48. Australia Outlook% saar Source: Lehman Brothers,2008

  49. CPI % YOY Source: Lehman Brothers,2008

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