1 / 12

Choice Modelling in Australia: past, present and future

Choice Modelling in Australia: past, present and future. Jeff Bennett Crawford School ANU. Some quiet contemplation. Non-market environmental valuation … and choice modelling in particular … appears to have reached a turning point in Australia

rae-miranda
Download Presentation

Choice Modelling in Australia: past, present and future

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. Choice Modelling in Australia:past, present and future Jeff Bennett Crawford School ANU

  2. Some quiet contemplation • Non-market environmental valuation … and choice modelling in particular … appears to have reached a turning point in Australia • Significant interest in applications and useful levels of funding for research • Some strong ‘nodes’ of application and training • Appropriate to contemplate what has happened, to assess where we are, to speculate on future developments and to plan

  3. In the beginning … • The Phoenix of Kakadu • Resource Assessment Commission Forestry Inquiry … the appetite for CVM applications had been lost • Contingent Ranking and Rating? • Louviere and Hensher • Vanuatu Forests … CV and CM studies for ACIAR • Flatley, Rolfe • LWRRDC “General Call” application • Blamey, Morrison, Huybers, Whitten

  4. Slow and steady • Sequence of applications and developments • National Land and Water Audit • NSW EPA • Fitzroy River Basin • SA - CSIRO • WA - UWA • Vic – Neil Sturgess … Rivers and VEAC • NZ – Kerr and Sharp • Health and transport developments

  5. Not always forward • NSW Rivers … two steps forward and one step back • Living Murray … one step forward and one step back • Great Barrier Reef …two steps forward and into oblivion • MBIs … no interest in assessing the level of investment • MCA … advanced as the means for avoiding the need for the hassles of NMV • The politics of economic analysis

  6. A new impetus • Inception of the Environmental Economics Research Hub • Specific interest in advancing non-market valuation as a key element of developing government policy • Hub theme devoted to Valuation • Specific projects looking at: • Integrating valuation into bio-economic models • Scope and scale effects • Time • Uncertainty • Expert vs lay values • Preparation of an application guide

  7. Why now? • People • demand: DEWHA, State agencies • supply: capacity • Policy • Environmental issues to the fore • BUT the ‘ascendancy’ of economics and finance • Pressure • Regulatory Impact Statements

  8. Remaining barriers • Deeply held scepticism in some quarters • The ‘anti-economics’ environmental lobby • The ‘anti-economics’ bureaucrats • The antagonistic economists • The political process … rent seeking rules • Technical issues

  9. The research frontier • Demonstrating the accuracy of results remains the ‘holy grail’ … policy makers require the assurance that they are not entering a quagmire of dispute • Incentive compatibility … belief in the results is ‘counterintuitive’ to decision makers • Hypothetical bias … also ‘counterintuitive’ • Context sensitivity … what is the ‘right’ context? • Scope and scale … framing concerns • Questionnaire presentation issues … cognition, comprehension, confusion • Information provision

  10. Room for wide-scale experimentation (lab and field) … especially revealed vs stated preference comparisons that are not confounded by the public/private good divergence • Consistency and convergence • Useful to find points of agreement within the profession without ‘standardisation’ • Avoid ‘freezing’ the evolutionary process

  11. Contingent behaviour and choice modelling • ‘Green’ accounting … at the national scale and for individual environmental assets … values for stocks and flows of non-marketed assets • Coping with uncertainty • Dealing with the ‘over-surveyed’ respondent • ….

  12. Timing is vital for policy making. Without a bank of studies and a well-recognised process of benefit transfer, the time needed to do environmental valuation (esp stated preference work) is a killer. • Benefit transfer – to be widely accepted – needs to be founded on a thorough understanding of the impacts of all the variables affecting value estimates … scope, frame, presentation etc etc

More Related