Support for International Agricultural Research: Can the Pipeline Deliver?

1. Support for International AgriculturalResearch: Can the Pipeline Deliver? Dr. Robert S. ZeiglerDirector GeneralInternational Rice Research Institute April 2008 / RxB

2. INTERNATIONAL RICE RESEARCH INSTITUTELos Baños, Philippines Mission: Reduce poverty and hunger, Improve the health of rice farmers and consumers, Ensure environmental sustainability Through research, partnerships Home of the Green Revolution Established 1960 www.irri.org

3. The Green Revolution in Asia 1960s • yields ~1.5 t/ha • widespread famines predicted Today • yields ~4 t/ha • economic growth An international undertaking initiated by philanthropy, driven by great social need and built by enduring partnerships

4. Production Population $ Prices Historical low Population, rice production, and rice prices in Asia: 1961-2002… Price (US$1/T) Production and Population (M) ! 1In US$ year 2000

5. Poverty-rice yield relationship Poverty ratio and rice yield in India in 1983 and 2005 1983 2005

6. International Agricultural Research System

7. Average Asian rice yield (t/ha) 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 Year By 2015 the world will need to produce at least an additional 50 M tons of paddy rice EVERY YEAR Yield growth is slowing

8. Monthly export price (US$/ton FOB) of Thai rice (5%-broken), (March 1998 to Jan. 2009) Source of raw data: The Pinksheet, World Bank

9. 2050 World Cereal Demand Projections Million Tonnes Source: Food and Agriculture Organization

10. Pedigree of IR 8 CINA LATISAIL PETA DGWG IR8 Ultimate Land Races: 3

11. Pedigree of IR72

12. O. rufipogon O. brachyanta O. longistaminata O. alta O. minuta Wild Species of Oryza O. officinalis O. ridleyi • Tolerance to abiotic stresses • Insect resistance • Disease resistance • QTLs for yield

13. Cannot Overestimate Central Role of IRRI’s Germplasm for Coming Generations IRRI holds in trust the world’s largest collection of rice genetic resources…> 110,000 accessions

14. Genetic Resources for Tomorrow • The challenges facing rice in agriculture beyond the time frame of our current plans are not knowable. • There is no assurance of any relationship between desirability of germplasm today and its potential for future application. • It is incumbent upon us to collect, conserve, and prepare germplasm for future use.

15. Gene Function Public Genetic Diversity Research Platform dissemination Durable disease-pest resistance Drought tolerance C4 Rice Problem soils Future challenges Current problems Use Phenotype-genotype association phenotype genotype Conserved Germplasm Breeding Lines Specialized Genetic Stocks Genetic Resources and Diversity as Foundation conservation

16. Bacterial Blight: Pathways to varietal release • Donor NILs in IR24 background (gene): • IRBB4 (Xa4) • IRBB5 (xa5, TFIIαγsubunit) • IRBB7* (Xa7, cloning in progress) • IRBB13 (xa13, MtN3) • IRBB21 (Xa21, Serine-threonine • kinase transmembrane • protein) Broad Adoption Release Release Expt’l & Farm Trials Backcrossing & MAS Xa-markers; Prediction of durability Breeding Pathogen population analysis Development of NILs Gene identification Inheritance studies Donor cvs & Xoo races id, e.g. DV85* Research Late70s ‘80s ‘90s 1993 1995 1997 1999 2002 (Indonesia) 2005 (Phil, China) 2006-7 (India … )

17. The problem of too much water • 20 million ha affected in South and Southeast Asia. • Growing problem with climate change. • Rice is only crop suitable, but ‘drowns’.

18. Swarna-Sub1(developed by marker assisted backcrossing) Sub1 12 chromosomes are all from Swarna except for Sub1 segment Swarna Swarna-Sub1

19. New Sub1 lines after 17 days submergence in the field at IRRI IR64-Sub1 Samba-Sub1 IR49830 (Sub1) Samba Samba IR64 IR42 IR49830 (Sub1) IR42 IR64 IR49830 (Sub1) IR64 IR64-Sub1 Samba IR64-Sub1 Samba-Sub1 IR42 IR42 IR49830 (Sub1) IR64-Sub1 IR49830 (Sub1) Samba Samba-Sub1 IR64

20. Oct 31 Swarna-Sub1 in India (2007 - 08) Eastern Uttar Pradesh July 31 Yield Performance (32 sites 2007): No Flood: Equal yield Short Flood (6 - 10 d): 25% advantage Med Flood (10 – 15 d): 50% advantage Long Flood (> 15 d): 150% - infinite advantage

21. Sub1 Timeline 1978 2008 1978: FR13A crossed to high-yielding IRRI lines 1983: Semi-dwarf trait com-bined with submergence tolerance 1990: High-yielding varieties with submergence tolerance developed 2005: Locally adapted lines awaiting further evaluation 2005: Identification of Sub1A gene conferring sub-mergence tolerance (IRRI & UC); improved markers 1995: Genetic mapping of Sub1 locus on rice chromosome 9 1981: Genetic studies indicate quantitative (com-plex) inheritance 2000: Fine mapping and identification of markers for breeding 2007: 6 Sub1 mega varieties sent for evaluation in 9 Asian countries 2002: Swarna crossed with IR49830-7 (Sub1) 2005: Swarna-Sub1 developed by marker assisted backcrossing 2008: Release and large scale seed production

22. Second Green Revolution Twenty first Century Constraints Declining agricultural land Declining water availability for agriculture Rising input prices: fuel and fertilizers Higher incidence of extreme weather Land degradation Persistent poverty and malnutrition

23. Human capacity will have to be rebuilt Indonesia: # PhD Rice Scientists < 50 yrs old in Public sector = 0 !

24. What Does Support for International Agricultural Research Look Like?

25. - 80% World Bank Lending for Agriculture US$ Million Source: World Bank Annual Reports and Various other Online Sources

26. World Bank Lending for Irrigation - 50 % Source: http://www.fao.org/DOCREP/006/Y4854E/y4854e03.htm#TopOfPage

27. ADB: Share of Agriculture in Total Lending A Complete Collapse Source: ADB Annual Reports and Other Sources

28. 15 Centers 4 Centers

29. 1974 Funding Level ~ 350 M Cumulative Shortfall IRRI budget, 1960-2007, US$ 2007

30. Has the CGIAR lost focus? Source: www.worldbank.org/WDR2008

31. ~ 10 % decline in traditional supporters 2007 - 2009

32. What happens when public sector investments drop? • Phil Pardey and colleagues at the International Food Policy Institute and the University of Minnesota found • After 10 - 15 years farm productivity starts to decline • Data from US as well as developing countries

33. Unrestricted funding: Until around 1990 most of CGIAR budget Covered our strategic, or “core” agenda Additional funding for work beyond our strategic agenda was often referred to as “special projects” and was restricted to use for that purpose only Restricted funding: Originally for work outside our strategic agenda Was a small part of our budget Often had been supported by personnel and facilities covered from unrestricted funding Now covers our strategic agenda First, some terminology: CGIAR budget is in two main categories

34. Traditional donors BMGF Unrestricted = ~20% Unrestricted = ~50% Revenue Trends Gates Investment Increasing

35. What does unrestricted funding support cover? • Basic Institute operations • Electricity, HR, finance, communications, etc. • Essential research and training not covered under restricted grants • Gene bank, exploratory research, partnerships, long term trials, pre-product work • Obviously with 80% of revenue as restricted, the unrestricted funding must be used very wisely

36. TODAY

38. Thank you “Since the way to feed the world is not to bring more land under cultivation, but to increase yields, science is crucial.” The Economist “The Silent Tsunami” 19 April 2008