Climate Change, Convention, Protocol and CDM. An Orientation Workshop on CDM Opportunities in the Small Scale Sector India Habitat Centre, New Delhi. Kalipada Chatterjee Climate Change Centre March 25-26, 2004. Global Warming Science of Climate Change.
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Climate Change, Convention, Protocol and CDM An Orientation Workshop on CDM Opportunities in the Small Scale Sector India Habitat Centre, New Delhi Kalipada ChatterjeeClimate Change Centre March 25-26, 2004
Global WarmingScience of Climate Change • During the last two decades two important events occurred which have far-reaching consequences for life on our planet These are : • appearance of ozone hole • compelling scientific evidence of global warming
Greenhouse gases, effect and Climate Change • Increased emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) cause global warming leading to climate change • Recent studies have given conclusive evidence that both the appearance of ozone hole and global warming are caused mainly by human activities.
Atmospheric concentration of CO2, N2O, CH4 ppmv = parts per million by volume; ppbv = parts per billion (thousand million) by volume; pptv = parts per trillion (million million) by volume;
What factors determine global climate ? • There are many factors, both natural and of human origins • What natural factors are important ? • Solar radiation • Energy absorbed from solar radiation is balanced by outgoing radiation from the Earth and the atmosphere, in the form of long wave radiation (invisible infrared radiation)
There are several natural factors which can change the balance between the energy absorbed by the Earth and the emitted by it in the form of long wave infrared radiation : such factors cause radiative forcing on climate. These are • Output of energy from the sun (its variability over the 11 year solar cycle and slow variations in the Earth’s orbits) • Apart from solar radiations itself, the most important radiative forcing arises from the greenhouse effect.
Greenhouse Effects Short wave solar radiation can pass through the clear atmosphere relatively unimpeded but long wave radiation emitted by the warm earth surface is partially absorbed and then re-emitted by a number of trace gases also known as green house gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere Main natural atmospheric GHGs are water vapour, carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) and ozone.
How do we know that natural greenhouse effect is real ? • Natural greenhouse effect keeps the earth warmer by 330C (from minus 180C to plus 150C) than it would otherwise be, thus making it warm enough to be habitable • Secondly, measurements from ice cores going back 160,000 years show that the Earth’s temperature closely paralleled the amount of CO2 and methane in the atmosphere. • The greenhouse effect is real; it is a well understood effect, based on established scientific principles. • Satellite observations of the radiation emitted from the Earth’s surface and atmosphere demonstrate the absorption due to the greenhouse gases. Effective emitting temperature of the Earth as seen from space is about 255 K and the globally averaged surface temperature is about 285K.
Why the GHGs are increasing • The GHGs in the atmosphere are increasing mainly due to human activities which include : • Energy production from fossil fuels • Industries • Transport • Construction • Agriculture • Land use change and deforestation • Rapid population growth
What is the role of the atmosphere ? • The mean annual concentration of CO2 is relatively homogenous through out the troposphere (the troposphere is mixed on a time scale of about 1 year) • The pre-industrial atmospheric CO2 concentration was about 280 ppmv as reconstructed from ice core analyses, to-day (1990) the level is about 353 ppmv (1ppmv CO2 equals to 2.12 GtC or 7.8 GtCO2)
What is the role of Ocean ? • On time scales of decades or more, the CO2 concentrations of the unperturbed atmosphere is mainly controlled by the exchange with the oceans, which is the largest of the carbon reservoirs • What is the role of earth’s vegetation and soils ? • The most important processes in the exchange of carbon are photosynthesis, plant respiration, and microbial conversion of the organic material in the soil back into CO2 • The carbon balance can be changed considerably by the direct impact of human activities (land use, land use change, forestation)
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) • The first assessment report brought out in 1990 • The Second Assessment Report brought out in 1995 • A considerable progress has been made in attempts to distinguish between natural and anthropogenic influences on climate • The main conclusion of the SAR is that • the balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate
Third Assessment Report, 2000 Some salient conclusions : • Climate change is not just an environmental issue, but is part of the larger challenge of sustainable development • An increasing body of observations gives a collective picture of a warming world and other changes in the climate system • the global average surface temperature has increased over the 20th century by about 0.60c
Global average sea level has risen • between 0.1 and 0.2 m during the 20th century • Warm episodes of the El nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have been more frequent, persistent and intense since mid 1970s • In parts of Asia and Africa, the frequency and intensity of droughts have been observed to increase in recent decades • Emissions of Greenhouse Gases and aerosols due to human activities continue to alter the atmospheric composition that are expected to affect the climate
CFCs 11 and 12 CARBON DIOXIDE OTHER CFCs NITROUS OXIDE METHANE The contribution from each of the human-made greenhouse gases to the change in radiative forcing from 1980 to 1990. The contribution from ozone may also be significant, but cannot be quantified at present
There are new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed is over the last 50 years • Human influences will continue to change atmospheric composition throughout the 21st century
Projections • Global average temperature and sea level are projected to rise under all IPCC emission scenarios • globally average surface temperature is projected to increase by 1.4 to 5.80c • In the SAR temperature increases projected was in the range of 1.0 to 3.50c
Projected rate of warming is much larger Mean sea level is projected to rise by 0.09 to 0.88m by 2100, but with significant regional variations
Effect on human health… Reduced winter mortality in mid- and high-latitudes Increased incidence of heat stress mortality, and the number of people exposed to vector-borne diseases, such as malaria and dengue and water-borne diseases such as cholera, especially in the tropics and sub-tropics
Developing countries are the most vulnerable to climate change • Impacts are worse- already more flood and drought prone and a large share of the economy is in climate sensitive sectors • Lower capacity to adaptbecause of a lack of financial, institutional and technological capacity and access to knowledge • Climate change is likely to impact disproportionately upon the poorest countries and the poorest persons within countries,increasing inequities in health status and access to adequate food, clean water and other resources.
Climate Change would have potential impacts on : • water resources • agriculture • energy • forests • urban centres • human health • on economy and quality of life • rainfall and its distributions • cyclones • sea level rise etc.
Present difficulties in the Climate Change Impact Studies are : • uncertainties of Climate Change • difficulties in quantification of impacts, particularly in economic terms • data gaps • incomplete knowledge of linkages between climate change and other systems
Climate Change Impacts of Particular concern to Asia / India • Agriculture • Water resources • Coastal Zones • Forest resources • Human Health • Agriculture and Food Security/ Indian Scenario • the single largest component of India’s economy ~ 30% of GDP • provides employment to 68% of the total workforce • accounts for 21% of total exports • 65% of the net swon area of 142 mha is rainfed • highly climate sensitive sector
Climate change adversely affects • terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems such as forests, deserts, lakes, stream and wetlands • water resources • currently 1.3 billion people do not have access to adequate supplies of safe water • food and fiber production • infrastructure and human settlements in coastal areas, due to flooding and inundation, • increased mortality and illness due to heat waves & vector borne diseases • climate change could increase the frequency and magnitude of floods and droughts
Climate Change and India’s Concern • The third assessment report of IPCC (IPCC 2000) projects that under the combined influence of GHGs and sulphate aerosols climate may warms globally by 1.4 to 5.80C by the next 100 years • Over the Indian region, the warming will be restricted to : 1.4 + 0.130C in 2020 2.5 + 0.40C in 2050 3.8 + 0.50C in 2080 • Rainfall is projected to increase by 2% (2020) to 7% (2080) • Sea level is projected to rise between 0.09 to 0.88 m in the period 1990 to 2100 • Extreme events such as excessive rain, flash floods, droughts, cyclones and forest fire are likely to increase. • The combined effect of climate change and increase in extreme events is expected to lead to significant impacts on water resources, agriculture, on food security, human health, habitat and fragile ecosystems like mangroves etc.
Climate Change Convention During the June’92 Earth Summit at Rio de Janerio representatives of 154 countries signed theUN Framework Convention on Climate change. • Objectives of the UNFCCC • To achieve stabilisation of GHG concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system • Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame to : (a) to ensure food production is not threatened, and • to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner (Contd...)
Climate Change Convention (Contd...) During the June’92 Earth Summit at Rio de Janerio representatives of 154 countries signed theUN Framework Convention on Climate change • The UNFCCC came into force on March 21, 1994. As on CoP 9 (at Milan, Italy December, 2003) there are at present 188 Parties to the Convention.
Addressing Global Warming and Climate Change • The possible options are : • Mitigation of climate change • Adaptation to climate change
Vulnerability to climate change Vulnerability to climate change can be addressed through the ability of human systems to adapt and cope with climate change but it depends on such factors as : • Wealth • Technology • Education • Information • Skills • Infrastructure • Access to resources • Management capabilities In addition many communities and regions that are vulnerable to climate change are also under pressure from forces such as : • Population growth • Resource depletion • Poverty (Contd..)
Vulnerability to climate change (Contd..) Signals of climate change are already becoming visible • Many regions of the world particularly developing countries are experiencing devastating floods • Unprecedented continental scale droughts resulting in : • loss of human life • biodiversity • food production • slowing down economic growth • affecting development • Orissa super cyclone of October 1999, continental scale drought during the summer of 2002 in India, severe heat waves over some parts of Europe during the summer of 2003 are few examples
UNFCCC Developing Countries’ Perspective • The Climate Change Convention is not merely for the stabilisation of the concentration of GHGs in the atmosphere; • poverty eradication and • economic and social development in the developing countries, are also central, though implicit in the Convention
Basic Principle Agreed Upon in UNFCCC • Protecting the climate system • for the benefit of present and future generations of human kind • on the basis of equity and • in accordance with their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities. • Developed country Parties agreed to take a lead in combating climate change and adverse effects thereof Climate change remains the most important global challenge of humanity
Kyoto Protocol • The Protocol to the Convention on Climate Change was adopted during CoP 3 in Kyoto, Japan in 1997. • The Protocol was opened for signature on 16 March 1998 • Will enter into force after it has been ratified by at least 55 Parties to the Convention accounting for at least 55% of the total 1990 CO2 eq emissions from the developed countries • To date 120 Parties have ratified the Protocol including 32 developed countries (Annex 1) representing 44.2% of the emissions • Under Article 3 of the Protocol the Annex 1 countries agreed to quantified emissions limitation and reduction commitments (QELRCs) by at least 5.2 percent below their 1990 levels. The six green house gases included are CO2, CH4, N2O, PFCs, HFCs and SF6. (Contd...)
Kyoto Protocol (Contd…) • For cost effectiveness of fulfilling this commitment, three flexibility, mechanism were introduced : • JI (among developed countries) • CDM (between developed and developing countries) • Emission Treading (among developed countries) • These reductions are to be achieved during the first commitment period 2008-2012 • Opportunities to reduce emissions through CDM project activities in developing countries are enormous at a fairly low cost particularly in the energy, energy efficiency, transport, building materials (brick, cement and steel), municipal wastes, animal husbandry sectors
Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) • The purpose of CDM is to : • assist developing countries in achieving sustainable development • contribute to the ultimate objective of the Convention i.e. stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system, and • assist developed countries in achieving compliance with their Quantified Emission Limitation and Reduction commitments (QELRCs)
BENEFITS THAT INDIA EXPECTS FROM CDM PROJECT ACTIVITIES ARE : • Capacity building in project development and implementation • Social development, economic development, environment protection and technological development and transfer, leading to the realisation of sustainable development and to address to India’s main agenda : poverty eradication and better quality of life to people • Additional foreign investments • A share of CERs • A cleaner path for rapid economic development
PARTICIPATION REQUIREMENTS OF A DEVELOPING COUNTRY PARTY • According to Marrakesh Accords, participation requirements of a developing country Party (e.g. India) in the CDM Process are : • Voluntary • A Party not included in Annex I may participate in a CDM project activity if it is a Party to the Kyoto Protocol, and • Have set up a Designated National Authority (DNA)
Enabling Environment for CDM in India • India’s ratification of the Kyoto Protocol • Designated National Authority (DNA) in place • GoI’s endorsement of a number of CDM Projects so far Enabling environment was further strengthened by hosting the COP 8 at New Delhi, Prime Minister of India’s address at COP8 and Delhi Declaration
ADDRESSING GHG MITIGATION IN INDIA • Focus of the abatement strategy is CO2 emissions reductions in the energy sector and forestry sectors and CH4 emissions reduction in the agriculture sector • Mitigation Options in the energy sector identified are : • improvements in energy efficiency through upgrading currently employed technologies and • introduction of advanced technologies that are more efficient • use of renewable energy sources wherever feasible to bring down the carbon content of the grid, to provide sustainable energy, and as a decentralised energy source at remote areas
Focus of the Present Orientation Workshop and Expectations Focus : • Initiate a process and bring different stakeholders from state and country level to a common platform for raising awareness and build capacity on the clean development mechanism, particularly in the small scale sector such as brick, rice mill, hotel and small scale renewable energy project activities as defined under the Marrakech Accords(CoP7) and recent CDM executive board modalities and procedures on small scale CDM.
Focus of the Present Orientation Workshop and Expectations Expectation : • This orientation workshop under IGES and CCC, DA initiatives will lead to a three year CDM capacity building programme amongst the different stakeholders in India. • Assist Project Developers to initiate CDM project activity in their respective sectors. • Facilitate to develop, design and implement a number of CDM projects under the small scale sector and strengthen learning processes by doing • Assist in achieving sustainable development objectives • Assist in the mitigation and adaptation to climate change, poverty eradication and rural development in the longer term to address to poverty eradication and providing better quality of life to all.
NGO INITIATIVES : CLIMATE CHANGE CENTRE, DEVELOPMENT ALTERNATIVES • Among the NGOs, Development Alternatives has set up a Climate Change Centre • Activities of the Climate Change Centre are categorised under three broad heads : A. Research • Development of methodologies • Analysis and determination of baselines • Analysis and documentation of experience and lessons learned worldwide for capacity building • Quantified indicators of sustainability for CDM projects (Contd...)
NGO INITIATIVES : CLIMATE CHANGE CENTRE, DEVELOPMENT ALTERNATIVES(Contd…) B. Facilitations • Project formulation • Approval process • Identification of partners and technologies • Providing linkages to reduce transaction costs • Assisting in negotiations C. Outreach and Awareness • Organising regional workshops on CDM project development • Participation in CoPs, • Closely interacting with Govt. and Industry on issues on climate change, CDM etc. particularly on policy analysis and operational issues • Bringing out publications, research papers / articles
Initiatives taken by the Various Stakeholders in India can be further Reinforced by proactive role of financial institutions: • Finance being one of the main hurdles in the promotion of Renewable Energy, a proactive role with well defined programmes of the Financial Institutions may considerably help in accelerating promotion of RETs in the rural development through CDM • By internationally agreeing to a minimum price of per tonne of CO2 reduced particularly through small scale CDM activities • Minimising transaction costs / upfront costs
CONCLUSION Clean Development Mechanism : • catalyses sustainable development in longer term • promote international co-operation in mitigation of climate change in short as well as longer term • increase resilience and coping capacity of communities through increased sustainable livelihoods and other tools for adaptation to climate change • narrow the gap between the haves and have nots in longer term • may lead to equitable distribution of resources in longer term • will address to rural development and poverty eradication in India in the longer term To speed up the process of CDM in India and to encourage different stakeholders, GoI may introduce a concept of “CARBON RESERVE” by banking carbon reduced or sequestered in line with India’s gold reserve and foreign exchange reserve as a part of India’s climate change policy in the longer term.