United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change The Negotiations Process Judith Ephraim Ministry of Sustainable Development , Energy, Science and Technology, Saint Lucia CARICOM Multilateral Environmental Agreements (MEAs) Skills Workshop 28 May – 1 June 2012

Presentation Outline • Science of Climate Change • The UNFCCC Process • The UNFCCC Bodies • The Negotiating Process –The Unwritten Side

Climate Change: Definition “…a change of climate which is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods.” United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Simply: a long-term shift in average climate.

The Cause Emissions of “greenhouse gases” (GHGs) into the atmosphere as a result of human activities such as the burning of fossil fuels. GHGs include, among others: • Carbon dioxide (cars, wood fires, etc) • Methane (landfills, agriculture, livestock) • Nitrous Oxide (Industry) • HCFCs (Refrigeration)

The CAUSE: Greenhouse Effect

The Evidence Source: IPCC AR4

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report AR4 • Released in 2007 showed climate change was human-made, definitely happening, and that the collective global effort so far to keep greenhouse gases to a “safe” level was grossly insufficient. Key points: • The average temperature of the earth’s surface has risen by 0.74°C since the late 1800s. It is expected to go up another 1.8°C to 4°C by the year 2100 if no action is taken • About 20-30% of plant and animal species is likely at higher risk of extinction if the global average temperature goes up by more than 1.5 to 2.5°C. • The average sea level rose by 10 to 20 cm over the 20th century. An additional increase of 18 to 59 cm is expected by the year 2100

Notable Observations • Decrease in Snow cover in both hemispheres. • Changes in precipitation patters globally and increased drought • A hotter world. Over the past 50 years, cold days, cold nights and frosts have become less frequent over most land areas, and hot days and hot nights, more frequent. • Extreme weather. An increase in intense tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic has been observed since about 1970. Warm air is fuel for cyclones and hurricanes. • The seasons. Spring events come earlier and plants and animals are moving upwards and polewards because of recent warming trends. • Nature. Scientists have observed climate-induced changes in at least 420 physical processes and biological species or communities

Worldwide Predictions • Agricultural yields are expected to drop in most tropical and sub-tropical regions (and in temperate regions, too) if the temperature increase is more than a few degrees. • Diseases, especially those carried by vectors like mosquitoes, could spread to new areas in the world. • Millions of people are expected to be exposed to increasing water stress • More intense weather-related disasters combine with rising sea levels and other climate-related stresses to make the lives of those living on coastlines, particularly the world’s poor, misery. • Extinctions are expected from the current warming trends.

Who is Responsible? • Small island states combined, contribute a fraction of 1% to global GHG emissions. • Industrialized countries historically responsible. • Large, industrializing nations (China, India, Brazil) now contributing significantly • China largest emitter since 2007

Some Typical Characteristics of SIDS • Small Size • Geographic remoteness • Exposure to extreme phenomena • Open, vulnerable economies • Limited human and financial resources • Fragile ecosystems, often with high endemism • Generally recognized as being among the most vulnerable to climate change (UN, IPCC, others).

Effects of CC on SIDS: Projections for the Caribbean • Rainfall set to decrease for Southern Caribbean • In general, fewer heavy showers, but; • More intense showers during storms Caribbean sea levels are projected to rise by up to 0.24 m by mid century • Sea surface temperatures in the Caribbean are projected to warm, perhaps up to 2oC by the end of the century. • Hurricanes to become more intense (peak by c. 2025 with Cat. 4 and 5 to become more frequent (From1.4 per year at present to 3 or 4 per year)

Implications for SIDS (Vulnerable Sectors) • Coastal Zone and Fisheries • Human health • Human Settlements • Tourism • Fresh Water Resources • Agriculture • Forestry and Terrestrial Resources • Financial sector

Adaptation versus Mitigation • AdaptationAdjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities • MitigationIn the context of climate change, a human intervention to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases

Complexity of Climate Change • Almost all modern human endeavor produces carbon dioxide hence climate change extremely complex and has strong nexus with difficult issues such as poverty, economic development and population growth. • Addressing climate change is not easy but it should happen now. • Prediction of “tipping points”, where a gradual change suddenly moves into a self-fueling spiral. How much methane is trapped in the melting permafrost and in sea-beds in a warming ocean, and, if some or all of that methane is released, what effect will it have on the global temperature and climate? If the ice cover in the poles keeps shrinking so that there is less bright white surface and more dark liquid sea surface, how much more heat from the sun will the dark surface trap, and how much less can the ice packs reflect back into space? Sea mass expands when warm— how much will this add to sea level rise?

UNFCCC –The process

Milestones in Addressing Climate change • 1979-The first World Climate Conference (WCC) takes place • 1988 — The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is set up. • 1990 -First assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change -reflected the views of 400 scientists • primary message: global warming was happening and something had to be done about it.

Milestones in Addressing Climate Change • 1992- At the Earth Summit in Rio, the UNFCCC is opened for signature along with its sister Rio Conventions, UNCBD and UNCCD. Negotiation of the Convention was fast— especially one on such a vastly complex issue. • 1995 — The first Conference of the Parties (COP 1) takes place in Berlin.Countries realized that emission reductions provisions in the Convention were inadequate. They launched negotiations to strengthen the global response to climate change. • 1997-Kyoto Protocol formally adopted in December at COP3

Milestones in Addressing Climate Change • 2001-Release of IPCC’s Third Assessment Report, Adoption of Marrakesh Accords • 2007 — IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report released, AWG KP and AWG-LCA • 2009 — Copenhagen Accord drafted at COP15 in Copenhagen • 2010 — Cancun Agreements drafted and largely accepted by the COP • 2011 — The Durban Platform for Enhanced Action drafted and accepted by the COP

The UNFCCC Article 2- The ultimate objective of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is “stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner”.

The UNFCCC In Summary: • Recognized that there was a problem- From 1994 ,it bound member states to act in the interests of human safety even in the face of scientific uncertainty. • Sets a lofty but specific goal- The ultimate objective of the Convention is to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations "at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic (human induced) interference with the climate system." What does this mean? • Puts the onus on developed countries to lead the way-Annex I countries were expected by the year 2000 to reduce emissions to 1990 levels.

The UNFCCC • Directs new funds to climate change activities in developing countries-Industrialized nations agree to providing financial support for action on climate change-above and beyond any financial assistance they already provide to these countries (managed by GEF). • Keeps tabs on the problem and what's being done about it-requires reporting for both developed and developing countries. • Charts the beginnings of a path to strike a delicate balance-The Convention takes the economic development of developing countries into consideration by accepting that the share of greenhouse gas emissions produced by developing nations will grow in the coming years. • Kicks off formal consideration of adaptation to climate change-acknowledges the vulnerability of all countries to the effects of climate change and calls for special efforts to ease the consequences especially in developing countries which lack the resources to do so on their own.

The Kyoto Protocol • Adopted in Kyoto, Japan, on 11 December 1997 but Entered into force on 16 February 2005, due to a complex ratification process. • Kyoto Protocol (KP) is what “operationalizes” the Convention. It commits industrialized countries to stabilize greenhouse gas emissions based on the principles of the Convention. The Convention itself only encourages countries to do so. • KP, sets binding emission reduction targets for 37 industrialized countries and the European community in its first commitment period. • KP was structured on the principles of the Convention. It only binds developed countries because it recognizes that they are largely responsible for the current high levels of GHG emissions in the atmosphere, which are the result of more than 150 years of industrial activity. • KP places a heavier burden on developed nations under its central principle: that of “common but differentiated responsibility”.

The Kyoto Protocol KP has an essential architecture which allows: • Reporting and verification procedures; • Flexible market-based mechanisms- KP countries bound to targets have to meet them largely through domestic action— that is, to reduce their emissions onshore. But they can meet part of their targets through three “market-based mechanisms” that ideally encourage GHG abatement to start where it is most cost-effective; and KP lead to the creation of the carbon market. • A compliance system- designed to strengthen the Protocol’s environmental integrity, support the carbon market’s credibility and ensure transparency of accounting by Parties.

The Bali Road Map • Adopted at COP13 and CMP3 in December 2007 in Bali. • All Parties to the Convention were involved in crafting the Bali Road Map - a set of a forward-looking decisions that represent the work that needs to be done under various negotiating “tracks” that is essential to reaching a secure climate future.The Bali Road Map includes the Bali Action Plan, which charts the course for a new negotiating process designed to tackle climate change. • The Bali Action Plan is “a comprehensive process to enable the full, effective and sustained implementation of the Convention through long-term cooperative action, now, up to and beyond 2012”, in order to reach an agreed outcome and adopt a decision. • The COP decided that the process would be conducted under a subsidiary body under the Convention, the Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action (AWG-LCA)

The Bali Road Map • The Bali Action Plan and the work of the AWG-LCA is divided into 5 main categories: Shared vision( a long-term vision for action on climate change, including a long-term goal for emission reductions) Mitigation Adaptation Technology Financing • The Ad Hoc Working Group on Further Commitments for Annex I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol (AWG –KP) negotiations, would work in parallel to the AWG-LCA • The Bali Action Plan was highly ambitious- time lines it spelled out overly optimistic, and underestimation of the complexity both of climate change as a problem and of crafting a global response to it.

COP 15 Copenhagen High expectations that were not realised for COP 15 in Copenhagen in 2010 Key Outcomes: • COP extended the AWG-LCA’s mandate, enabling it to continue its work with the aim of presenting the outcome of this work at COP 16 in Cancun in 2010. • COP15 advanced many key issues. -It raised climate change policy to the highest political level; -It advanced the negotiations on the infrastructure needed for well-functioning, global climate change cooperation; -It produced the Copenhagen Accord. It was not adopted by all governments, but it advanced a number of key issues; and -It committed developed countries to $30 billion fast-start financing (in 2010-2012) for adaptation and mitigation in developing countries, with priority given to the least developed countries.

The Cancun Agreements • On the heels of Copenhagen, formed the basis for the largest collective effort the world has ever seen to reduce emissions, in a mutually accountable way, with national plans captured formally at international level under the banner of the UNFCCC. • Represented the most comprehensive package ever agreed by Governments to help developing nations deal with climate change including finance, technology and capacity-building support. • Included a timely schedule to review the progress made towards expressed objective of keeping the average global temperature rise below two degrees Celsius. • Included an agreement to review whether the objective needs to be strengthened in future, on the basis of the best scientific knowledge available.

Durban Outcomes • COP 17-With Cancun Agreements and Bali Road Map as their foundations, and the Convention and KP as their guides parties reached agreement on a second commitment period on the Kyoto Protocol and on a pathway and deadlines to drawing up and committing to a new, post-2020 mitigation framework under the Convention . • Established the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action which spelled out a path to negotiate a new legal and universal emission reduction agreement by 2015, to be adopted by 2020. • This accounts for the mitigation efforts of all countries under one agreement. (historic) • A work programme on raising collective mitigation ambition was launched. • Kyoto Protocol would move into a second commitment period in 2013, in a seamless transition from the end of the second commitment period in 2012.

Durban Outcomes • Amendments to Kyoto Protocol including the range of greenhouse gases covered. • In the interim, all developed country governments and 48 developing countries affirmed their emission reduction pledges up to 2020. • Developing countries will receive institutional, capacity and technological support to act on climate change, while ensuring that, in the bigger picture, climate change policies do not lead to unintended economic and social consequences. • Ensured better coordination and planning of the urgent need to adapt to climate change, especially in developing countries. • Climate finance has become more concrete in terms of both infrastructure and coordination e.g. launch of Green Climate Fund.

Analysis of Durban Outcomes • Until COP17 in Durban, the main focus of the negotiations under the KP had been to decide what to do when its first commitment period expired in 2012. • At Durban, at decision was taken to move into a second commitment period in 2013, with Annex I parties submitting their quantified emission reduction targets in May 2012, to be adopted at COP18 in Qatar in December 2012. • Pre Durban –negotiations focused on getting a new framework to replace the Kyoto Protocol • Durban agreed to decide on a new framework by 2015 and then to put this fully in place by 2020

Analysis of Durban Outcomes Challenges Arising: • How to address the gap between the KP and the new framework. • How to raise the levels of ambition for emissions reduction so far expressed by developing countries. • How to effectively get developing countries (especially the large ones, such as China-the world’s largest emitter-, India and Brazil) to contribute meaningfully in the new emissions reduction framework; • Ensuring that countries such as the US, Canada, Japan and Russia are part of any new framework. • Speeding up the flow of financial resources to developing countries to address climate issues. • Addressing and managing the application of such measures as Land Use and Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) in thrust to mitigate climate change

Analysis of Durban Outcomes • Durban’s ‘decisions’ note, that 2020 GHG mitigation pledges fall far short of emission pathways likely to hold temperature increases below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. • Geopolitics prevented Durban from (a) improving pledges to reduce GHG emissions; and (b) mobilizing money for the Green Climate Fund. • Instead Durban focused on and achieved (a) good progress on operationalising the institutions needed to combat climate change; and, (b) establishing an outline roadmap for all countries committing to reducing GHG emission pathways to levels which science estimates to be safe. • Future progress, however, will depend the politics of major countries.

Key Issues of concerns for SIDS • A <1.5 degree target; • Consideration of the extreme vulnerability of SIDS; • The need for new and additional financial resources to support climate change adaptation and mitigation in SIDS; • The involvement of all Parties, in keeping with “common but differentiated responsibilities”, as enshrined in the Convention.

Status Report from Bonn Negotiations 2012 • Produced options to enable a smooth transition between the two commitment periods of the protocol. • Decisions scheduled to be taken in Doha include whether the second commitment period will be for 5 or 8 years and on the precise emission reduction commitments of industrialised countries that have obligations under the Protocol. • A draft adaptation decision text for Doha was agreed on ways to implement National Adaptation Plans for least developed countries, including linking funding and other support. • Draft of agreements relating to technology, finance and capacity-building which are set to be adopted in Doha.

Next Stop • What will happen at COP 18?

UNFCCC-Bodies

The COP • The Conference of Parties, COP, is the supreme decision making body of the Convention. • Parties review and promote the implementation of the Convention and any other legal instruments that the COP adopts, including institutional and administrative arrangements • Key function of COP is to review the national communications and emission inventories submitted by Parties to assess the effects of the measures taken by Parties and the progress made in achieving the ultimate objective of the Convention • Rotation of COP presidency among 5 UN Regions • COP1-Berlin, March 1995

The CMP • Conference of Parties Serving as Meeting to the Parties of the Kyoto Protocol • All governments that are party to the Kyoto Protocol are represented, while governments that are not party are observers. • The CMP reviews the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol and takes decision to promote its effective implementation • CMP1 was held in Montreal Canada in December 2005 • “Marrakesh Accords “ –rulebook” of the KP and sets the framework for implementation

The SUBSTA • Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice –permanent subsidiary body which provides timely information and advice on technological matters • Key areas of work include: impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change, emissions for deforestation and forest degradation, technology transfer, guidelines for greenhouse gas inventories for Annex I Parties, Research and Observation • Serves as link between the scientific information from experts and the policy-oriented needs of the COP • Works closely with IPCC

The SBI • Subsidiary Body for Implementation is a permanent subsidiary body which assesses and reviews the effective implementation of the convention • Key task is the examination of information in the national communications and emission inventories submitted by parties • Reviews the financial assistance given to Non Annex I parties to meet convention commitments • Provides advice of financial mechanism, administrative and budgetary matters

SUBSTA and SBI • Work together on cross-cutting issues e.g. capacity building, vulnerability of developing countries to climate change response measures and KP measures • SUBSTA and SBI meet in parallel • Meet at least twice a year

The Ad Hoc Working Groups AWGs • The Ad Hoc Working Group on Long-term Cooperative Action under the Convention (AWG-LCA) is a subsidiary body under the Convention established to conduct a comprehensive process to enable the full, effective and sustained implementation of the Convention through long-term cooperative action, now, up to and beyond 2012, in order to reach an agreed outcome to be presented to the Conference of the Parties (COP) for adoption. • The Ad Hoc Working Group on Further Commitments for Annex I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol (AWG-KP) established to discuss future commitments for industrialized countries under the Kyoto Protocol. • The AWG-KP reports to the CMP. The AWG-KP is to complete its work and have its results adopted by the CMP as early as possible and in time to ensure that there is no gap between the first and second commitment periods.

The ADP • The Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action (ADP) is a subsidiary body that was established by decision 1/CP.17 to develop a protocol, another legal instrument or an agreed outcome with legal force under the Convention applicable to all Parties. • The ADP is to complete its work as early as possible but no later than 2015 in order to adopt this protocol, legal instrument or agreed outcome with legal force at the twenty-first session of the Conference of the Parties and for it to come into effect and be implemented from 2020.

The IPCC • The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is a scientific body that reviews and assesses the most recent scientific, technical and socio-economic information produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of climate change. • Its findings reflect global scientific consensus and are apolitical in character, providing a crucial counterbalance to the often highly charged political debate over how to respond to climate change. Its assessment reports now reflect the work and observations of thousands of scientists. • It does not conduct any research nor does it monitor climate related data or parameters.

The IPCC • It reviews worldwide research, issues regular assessment reports, and compiles special reports and technical papers. • IPCC reports are frequently used as the basis for decisions made under the Convention. They played a major role in negotiations leading to the Kyoto Protocol.

Selected UNFCCC Bodies • Bureau of the COP • Executive board of the Clean Development Mechanism • Adaptation Fund Board • Transitional Committee of Green Climate Fund • Compliance Committee • Technology Executive Committee • Consultative Group of Experts on National Communications from Parties not included in Annex I of the Convention

Negotiating Groups • Environmental Integrity Group( Switzerland, Mexico , south Korea) • Umbrella Group (Australia, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, Norway, the Russian Federation, Ukraine and the US) • Least Developed Countries • The European Union • Group of 77 and China • Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS)

Other Groups • ALBA-Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our • America • GRULAC-Group of Latin American and Caribbean States • Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries- OPEC • BASIC Countries- Brazil, South Africa, India and China, this group includes the world’s major emerging economies and some of its largest emitters; together, the group accounts for 28.5% of global GHG emissions • SICA- Central American Integration System • Coalition for Rainforest Countries

United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change