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Crisis – What Crisis? Economic and Financial Market Outlook. Dr. Gertrud R. Traud Chief Economist / Head of Research Frankfurt, May 4, 2011. Commodities, Gold and Equities also a hit in 2011? . 2. Performance in EUR, indexed, 1.1.2010 = 100. China and Germany: Growth engines in 2010. 3.

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crisis what crisis economic and financial market outlook

Crisis – What Crisis? Economic and Financial Market Outlook

Dr. Gertrud R. Traud

Chief Economist / Head of Research

Frankfurt, May 4, 2011

commodities gold and equities also a hit in 2011
Commodities, Gold and Equities also a hit in 2011?

2

Performance in EUR, indexed, 1.1.2010 = 100

china has become the world s second largest economy in 2010

China 9,3 %

Japan 8,8%

USA 24,4 %

Germany 5,0 %

France 4,1 %

UK 3,6 %

Italy 3,2 %

Rest of the world

39,1 %

China has become the world‘s second largest economy in 2010

4

Shares of nominal GDP in $ 2010

Sources: EIU (as of July 2010), Helaba Research

transmission of the shock in japan
Transmission of the shock in Japan

5

Indirect effect (global supply chains)

Direct effect (Imports/Exports, Profits)

Japan

Rest of the world

Consumer and corporate confidence

Financial and commodity markets

slide6

Effectsdepend on contamination

6

Source:

Google Maps

export destinations
Export destinations

7

Share in %, Jan. to Nov. 2010

Source. Destatis, Helaba Research

import regions
Import regions

8

Share in %, Jan. to Nov. 2010

Source. Destatis, Helaba Research

strong demand for german goods in asia
Strong demand for German goods in Asia

9

Index: January 2001 = 100

Index

the results of convergence iii are still open
The results of Convergence III are still open

12

%-points, yield spread government bonds vs. German bunds

growing differences in the euro zone
Growing differences in the euro zone

13

Unit labour costs, indexed Q1 2002 = 100

slide18

The price of overcoming the crisis: consolidation lowers potential growth

18

General government budget balance % GDP, OECD

as usual the oil price is a burden

140

140

120

120

100

100

80

80

60

60

40

40

20

20

0

0

70

72

74

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

00

02

04

06

08

10

As usual: the oil price is a burden

19

USD/Barrel brent, monthly average

Boom

2006/2007

New

Economy

Boom

US invades

Iraq

2nd oil crisis

(Iran – Iraq war)

Gulf War

1st oil crisis

Financial crisis

„Lehman“

Sources: Datastream, Helaba Research

factors to watch
Factors to watch

20

What about Japan?

What about the US debt crisis?

What about the European Debt Crisis?

What about the Middle East?

What about a downward spiral?

disclaimer
Disclaimer

21

This presentation was prepared with the greatest care. However, it contains non-binding analysis and forecasts for current and future market conditions. The data is based on sources which we consider to be reliable but for which we do not assume any liability in relation to their accuracy, completeness or their being up-to-date. Any data included in this presentation is for information purposes. They may not be taken as an quote or recommendation for investment decisions.

slide22

In case of questions please contact:

  • Helaba Research
  • phone: +49/69/91 32-20 24
  • mailto:research@helaba.de