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ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

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  1. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK MAY 2012 Economic Outlook is revized in the 1st and the 3rd weeks of the month. Recent Update:05/07/2012 May 2012 Ministry of Economy

  2. OUTLINE A- MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK B- FOREIGN TRADE OUTLOOK 1) MERCHANDISE 2) SERVICES C- INVESTMENTS , FOREIGN CAPITAL and INCENTIVES D- FREE ZONES in TURKEY E- BILATERAL, REGIONAL, PLURILATERAL and MULTILATERAL TRADE May 2012 Ministry of Economy

  3. A- MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK May 2012 Ministry of Economy

  4. GrowthForecastsforSelectedCountries/Country Groups (%) Source: IMF, OECD, UN, WB • Turkish Economy expanded by 8,5% in 2011. • According to the IMF, Turkish Economy is expected to grow by 2,3% in 2012. May 2012 Ministry of Economy

  5. Forecasts for Merchandise and Services Trade Growth (%) Source: IMF and WTO • According to the IMF estimates, global trade volume of merchandise and services is expected to increase by 3.8% in 2012 and 5.4% in 2013. • According to the WTO estimates, global trade volume of merchandise and services is expected to increase by 3.7% in 2012 and 5.6% in 2013. May 2012 Ministry of Economy

  6. Economic Targets of 2012-2014 Medium Term Programme *Forecast (Medium Term Programme, Ministry of Development – October 13, 2011) • Medium Term Programme aims to sustain economic growth, to decrease the current account deficit, and to preserve macroeconomic and financial stability. May 2012 Ministry of Economy

  7. Real GDP Growth of SelectedCountries/Country Groups (2011) Source: TURKSTAT, IMF • Turkish Economy expanded by 8,5% in 2011, which was well beyond the expectations of the IMF (7.5%). May 2012 Ministry of Economy

  8. AnnualEconomicGrowthRates (2002-2011) * Forecast, Medium Term Programme Source:TURKSTAT • Turkey has recovered fast from the global financial crisis and amongstthose countries affected less from current global economic uncertainties. • Turkey has the fastest economic growth rates in Europe. • Mean annual growth rate between 2002 and 2011 was 6%. • Real GDP growth for 2011 realized as 8,5%. May 2012 Ministry of Economy

  9. GDP Per Capita Source: Dollar value is from TURKSTAT • GDP per capita has tripled in the last ten years from 3,492 USD to 10,444 USD. According to Purchasing Power Parity (PPP),GDP per capita came close to 16 thousand USD. May 2012 Ministry of Economy

  10. CapacityUtilizationRatio (%) Source: TURKSTAT • Capacity utilization ratio realized as 74.7% in April 2012. May 2012 Ministry of Economy

  11. IndustrialProduction Index Source: TURKSTAT • Industrial production index increased by 4.4% year-over-year in February 2012 up to 118.45 May 2012 Ministry of Economy

  12. Inflation (AnnualPercentChange) Source: TURKSTAT • Annual inflation in 2011 realized as 10.4%. May 2012 Ministry of Economy

  13. Real EffectiveForeign Exchange Rate (2003=100)   Source: CBRT • As of April 2011, Turkish Lira has depreciated by 2.2% annually in terms of the CPI-based real effective exchange rate. • The level of depreciation is 4.9% in terms of the PPI-based real effective exchange rate. May 2012 Ministry of Economy

  14. Total Creditsand Consumer Credits (Billion TL) • Credits and specifically consumer credits increased in parallel to the growing domestic demand. • Total credits increased slightly on a monthly basis in March 2012. May 2012 Ministry of Economy

  15. CDS Premiums (May 5th, 2012) * Higher CDS premiums indicate higher risk levels. • CDS premium of Turkey is significantly low compared to most of the European countries. May 2012 Ministry of Economy

  16. Financial Markets • Total assets of the banking sector increased by 20.6% and reached 1.22 trillion TL in February 2012. • Capital Adequacy Ratio of Turkish Banking Sector is 16,76% in January 2012. May 2012 Ministry of Economy

  17. EU Defined Budget Deficit/ GDP (%) 2011 • EU defined general government budget deficit/GDP ratio was 2.6% in Turkey in 2011 and Turkey satisfied the Maastricht criteria of 3%. Turkey also outperformed 18 EU Countries. • Central government budget deficit/GDP ratio was 1.3% in Turkey in 2011 and Turkey outperformed 23 EU Countries. • In January-March 2012, central government budget deficit has increased by %55.9 to 6.4 billion dollars. May 2012 Ministry of Economy

  18. GovernmentDebt / GDP (%) • Debt/GDP ratio of Turkey was 39.4% in 2011, which was below the level in 21 EU Countries and the Maastricht Criteria (60%). May 2012 Ministry of Economy

  19. UnemploymentRates (%) Source: TURKSTAT • Unemployment rates have returned to the pre-crisis level. • In January 2012, the unemployment rate was 10.2%. Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 8.9%. • Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in Euro Area was 10.9% and 10.2% in (EU27) in March. • Turkey has the 5th largest labor force among the European countries. (2009, World Bank) May 2012 Ministry of Economy

  20. Potential of Population (2010) Source: World Bank • Turkey has a population of 74.7 million in which half of the population is under the age of 29.7. • Growth rate of population is 1.36% in Turkey, 0.28% in EU Countries and -0.24% in Germany. May 2012 Ministry of Economy

  21. GrowingDynamism in Turkey'sDomestic Market • Cell phone penetration rate in households: 91.9% • Internet access rate in households: 42.9% • Internet access rate in enterprises: 90.9% • PC penetration rate in households: 34.3% • Laptop penetration rate in households: 22.6% • Digital camera penetration rate in households: 27.8% • Printer penetration rate in households: 14.0% • 1 of each 5 people owns a vehicle. (2010) May 2012 Ministry of Economy

  22. B- FOREIGN TRADE OUTLOOK May 2012 Ministry of Economy

  23. I) MERCHANDISE May 2012 Ministry of Economy

  24. Targets in MerchandiseTrade * Actual (Source: TURKSTAT) **Forecast: MediumTermProgramme, Ministry of Development- 13/10/2011) May 2012 Ministry of Economy

  25. Turkey'sShare in Global MerchandiseExports (%) • Turkey’s share in global merchandise exports was %0.74 in 2011. May 2012 Ministry of Economy

  26. ForeignTrade Volume/GDP (%) • The ratio of foreign trade volume/GDP was 48,7% in 2011. • Turkey’s integration to the international trade system is eminent. May 2012 Ministry of Economy

  27. ForeignTradeDevelopments 2009 - 2011 / 2011-2012 January-March * Energy corresponds to Chapter 27. Source:Ministry of Economy • In January- March 2012 compared to the same period of the previous year, exports increased by 12,6 % and imports decreased by 0,7% respectively. May 2012 Ministry of Economy

  28. MonthlyExports • In March 2012 compared to March 2011 exports have increased by 12,2% and imports have decreased by 4,8% and reached to the level of 13,3 and 20,6 billion dollar respectively. May 2012 Ministry of Economy

  29. Distribution of ForeignTrade in BroadEconomicCategories EXPORT IMPORT May 2012 Ministry of Economy

  30. Main ExportItems * Percent change is related to the annual change in exports in 2012. Source: TURKSTAT May 2012 Ministry of Economy

  31. Main ImportItems * Percent change is related to the annual chamge in imports in 2012. Source: TURKSTAT May 2012 Ministry of Economy

  32. Main Import Partners (Share,%) Main Trade Partners (January-March2012) Main Export Partners (Share,%) Source: TURKSTAT May 2012 Ministry of Economy

  33. ExportsbyRegions Source: TURKSTAT May 2012 Ministry of Economy

  34. Imports by Regions Source: TURKSTAT May 2012 Ministry of Economy

  35. TariffRates Source: WTO Tariff Profiles, 2011 May 2012 Ministry of Economy

  36. 2) SERVICES TRADE May 2012 Ministry of Economy

  37. Targets in Services • Tourism:Besidesincreasingthenumber of touristarrivals, creating a structurethatimproves service quality, targetshigh-incomegroupsbydiversifying marketing channels, preservesnaturalcapitalandsustainability, andstimulatesthosetypes of tourismwhereTurkey has comparativeadvantages • Construction, Engineering-Architecture, Technical ConsultancyandContracting Services:Establishing a structurethatfitsTurkey’seconomicandsocialneeds, that is compatiblewithhightechnologyandinternationalrules, that is sensitivetoenvironment,thatcreateshighvalueadded, highforeignexchangeinflowandhighemployment, thatgrantshigh service quality, andthatrelies on qualifiedhumanandphysicalcapital. • Commercial Services: Increasingproductivityandcommercialtradevolumein a competitiveway, andtoencouragetechnologyandinnovation. May 2012 Ministry of Economy

  38. Turkey'sShare in Global Services Exports (%) Source: WTO, CBRT • Turkey’s share in global exports of services was 0.92% in 2011. May 2012 Ministry of Economy

  39. Balance of Payments - Services *January-February Source: CBRT May 2012 Ministry of Economy

  40. TourismStatistics (Quarterly) Tourists visited, Source: TURKSTAT • Turkey ranks as the 7th in the world and the 5th in Europe among the most favourite tourism destinations. • Turkey’s income per tourist increased by 18% in 2010 and 1% in 2011. May 2012 Ministry of Economy

  41. Constructing Services Abroad Contributions to the overall economic performance: Creating foreign exchange inflow, exports, employment, technology transfer; adding to the machinery stock, facilitating internationalization • 31 out of the world’s top 225 constructing companies are Turkish. • Turkey ranks as the 2nd country (following China) in terms of the number of top constructing companies. May 2012 Ministry of Economy

  42. Logistics • Europe’s biggest truck fleet • (45 thousands trucks and 1,420 companies) • Almost 1 million flights in 2011 • (2.3 million tonnes freight and 117 million passengers) • 25. biggest fleet in the world • 45 airports and 51 ports • Total length of divided highways will reach 15 thousand kilometers. • High-speed railway projects are carried out rapidly. May 2012 Ministry of Economy

  43. Energy • Turkey is an energy hub between energy producer and consumer regions May 2012 Ministry of Economy

  44. C- INVESTMENTS, FOREIGN CAPITAL and INCENTIVES May 2012 Ministry of Economy

  45. InvestmentClimate in Turkey May 2012 Ministry of Economy

  46. Time Requiredto Start a Business Source: Invest In Turkey • The required time to start a business is 6 days in Turkey. May 2012 Ministry of Economy

  47. SkilledLabourAvailability Source: Invest In Turkey • Scoring is between 0 and 10. May 2012 Ministry of Economy

  48. Transparency in Finance Sector Source: Invest In Turkey • Scoring is between 0 and 10. May 2012 Ministry of Economy

  49. TheSectoralBreakdown of ForeignInvestments * January - February Source: CBRT May 2012 Ministry of Economy

  50. Breakdown of ForeignInvestmentsby Country * January – February Source: CBRT May 2012 Ministry of Economy