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Simulations of the Present and Future Precipitation Climate of the Central Andes

Simulations of the Present and Future Precipitation Climate of the Central Andes. COAWST Modelling System Training 27 August 2014 Stephen D. Nicholls and Karen I. Mohr NASA-Goddard Space Flight Center. Definition a nd objectives.

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Simulations of the Present and Future Precipitation Climate of the Central Andes

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  1. Simulations of the Present and Future Precipitation Climate of the Central Andes COAWST Modelling System Training 27 August 2014 Stephen D. Nicholls and Karen I. Mohr NASA-Goddard Space Flight Center

  2. Definition and objectives • Precipitation climate: Diurnal cycle, total rainfall, distribution • Motivation: GCMs and CORDEX lack temporal and spatial resolution. Central Andes very sensitive to climate change. • Objectives: • Determine stability and feasibility of COAWST as a regional climate model • Run year-long COAWST simulation to gain precipitation climate “snapshots”

  3. Model Configuration (1) WRF • COAWST rev 727 (May 2012) • WRF • 2 domains (27, 9 km) • 61 vertical levels • Model top: 50 hPa • ROMS • 1 domain (~10 km) • 16 vertical levels • Open boundaries • No SWAN • Current and future wave climate? • Coupling: WRF 1 <> ROMS ROMS

  4. Model Configuration (2) WRF • Lateral boundaries: • Atm, Ocn: MIROC5 (0.7°) • Tides: OSU • Time steps: • WRF: 60 sec, 20 sec • ROMS: 10 sec • Coupling: 30 mins • Free-running simulation • Modified landuse • USGS = 1991, MODIS = 2003 • Forest and glacier loss ROMS

  5. Simulations • All simulations for entire year (Oct-Oct) • “Current” climate (2003-04) • WRF uncoupled, WRF-ROMS coupled • Future climate (2031-32, 2059-60, 2087-88) • Two parts • RCP comparisons (RCP 4.5, 6.0, 8.5) • Year comparisons (RCP 6.0)

  6. Current Climate: Convection • Cumulus parameterization (Kain-Fritsch) off domain 2 • Over-generation of rain when active • Model and parameterization at 9 km??

  7. Current Climate • Precipitation + SST • Impacts on atmosphere • Precipitation impacts in Andes

  8. Current Climate: Precipitation + SST TRMM = Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Daily 3B42 ECM03 = ECMWF interim analysis WMH03 = WRF with MIROC5 input, no ROMS CMH03 = WRF with MIROC5 input, coupled to ROMS

  9. Current Climate: Precipitation + SST TRMM = Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Daily 3B42 ECM03 = ECMWF interim analysis WMH03 = WRF with MIROC5 input, no ROMS CMH03 = WRF with MIROC5 input, coupled to ROMS

  10. Current Climate: Precipitation + SST TRMM = Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Daily 3B42 ECM03 = ECMWF interim analysis WMH03 = WRF with MIROC5 input, no ROMS CMH03 = WRF with MIROC5 input, coupled to ROMS

  11. Current Climate: Precipitation + SST TRMM = Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Daily 3B42 ECM03 = ECMWF interim analysis WMH03 = WRF with MIROC5 input, no ROMS CMH03 = WRF with MIROC5 input, coupled to ROMS

  12. Current Climate: Precipitation + SST TRMM = Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Daily 3B42 ECM03 = ECMWF interim analysis WMH03 = WRF with MIROC5 input, no ROMS CMH03 = WRF with MIROC5 input, coupled to ROMS

  13. Atmospheric impacts: θe and Sfc Winds • Plots: • Top (Oct) • Bottom • (June) • Ocean upwelling • Decreased instability

  14. Andes Precipitation

  15. Andes Diurnal Cycle • No change to distribution, but changes in average precip • ∆Precip days • Cuzco -9 • Sajama +6 • Sucre +21 • Tuni -11

  16. Future Climate • Precipitation • Precipitation impacts in Andes

  17. Future Climate: Precipitation CMH03 = WRF-ROMS simulation from 2003, with historical MIROC5 input CMR6031 = WRF-ROMS simulation from 2031, with MIROC5 RCP 6.0 input CMR6059 = WRF-ROMS simulation from 2059, with MIROC5 RCP 6.0 input CMR6087 = WRF-ROMS simulation from 2087, with MIROC5 RCP 6.0 input

  18. Future Climate: Precipitation CMH03 = WRF-ROMS simulation from 2003, with historical MIROC5 input CMR6031 = WRF-ROMS simulation from 2031, with MIROC5 RCP 6.0 input CMR6059 = WRF-ROMS simulation from 2059, with MIROC5 RCP 6.0 input CMR6087 = WRF-ROMS simulation from 2087, with MIROC5 RCP 6.0 input

  19. Future Climate: Precipitation CMH03 = WRF-ROMS simulation from 2003, with historical MIROC5 input CMR6031 = WRF-ROMS simulation from 2031, with MIROC5 RCP 6.0 input CMR6059 = WRF-ROMS simulation from 2059, with MIROC5 RCP 6.0 input CMR6087 = WRF-ROMS simulation from 2087, with MIROC5 RCP 6.0 input

  20. Future Climate: Precipitation CMH03 = WRF-ROMS simulation from 2003, with historical MIROC5 input CMR6031 = WRF-ROMS simulation from 2031, with MIROC5 RCP 6.0 input CMR6059 = WRF-ROMS simulation from 2059, with MIROC5 RCP 6.0 input CMR6087 = WRF-ROMS simulation from 2087, with MIROC5 RCP 6.0 input

  21. Future Climate: Precipitation CMH03 = WRF-ROMS simulation from 2003, with historical MIROC5 input CMR6031 = WRF-ROMS simulation from 2031, with MIROC5 RCP 6.0 input CMR6059 = WRF-ROMS simulation from 2059, with MIROC5 RCP 6.0 input CMR6087 = WRF-ROMS simulation from 2087, with MIROC5 RCP 6.0 input

  22. Future Andes Precipitation

  23. Future Andes Diurnal Cycle • Diurnal cycle fairly robust • Temp precip “bump” • Cuzco, Sajama • Upper air • ∆Precip days (2087-2003) • Cuzco -12 • Sajama -9 • Sucre -16 • Tuni -20

  24. Remaining questions • WRF-ROMS runs lean toward a La Niña pattern • MIROC issue or ROMS bias or WRF radiation issue or forcing issue • Convective parameterization: No parameterization works well short term, but less effective long term • Potential issues with model configuration? • Eg. WRF model top, etc. • Problem with two-way interaction when both WRF grids not coupled to ROMS. • Model buffer zones • Future work

  25. Thanks for you attention and time!!! • Questions, comments???

  26. Landcover/landuse change • Modified raw MODIS landcover (WPS_geog) • Landcover change rates • Amazon (AZ) = ↓7000.0 km2/yr (Davidson et al. 2012) > 2003 • Atlantic Forest (AF): ↓0.343%/yr (Ribieroet al. 2009) • Chaco (CH): ↓2.2%/yr (Zak et al. 2004) • Tropical Glaciers (TG): 0.6785% (Slayback and Yegar 2006) • Forest (#1-5 vary) to cropland (#12) • Ice (#25) to tundra (#20)

  27. WRF Parameterizations • Microphysics – Goddard • Longwave Rad. – New Goddard • Shortwave Rad. – New Goddard • Surface layer – Eta similarity • Land Surface – NOAH • Boundary Layer – Mellor-Yamada-Janjic • Cumulus – Kain Fritsch (Turned off domain 2)

  28. ROMS Parameterizations #define MCT_LIB # undef BULK_FLUXES # define ATM2OCN_FLUXES # define ANA_SSFLUX # undef LONGWAVE_OUT #undef MY25_MIXING # define KANTHA_CLAYSON # define N2S2_HORAVG #define RADIATION_2D /* ok */ #define RAMP_TIDES /* ok */ #define SSH_TIDES /* ok */ #define ADD_FSOBC /* ok */ #define ANA_FSOBC /* ok */ #define UV_TIDES /* ok */ #define ADD_M2OBC /* ok */ #define ANA_M2OBC /* ok */ #define EAST_FSCHAPMAN #define EAST_M2FLATHER #define EAST_M3RADIATION #define EAST_TRADIATION /* #define ROMS_MODEL # define WRF_MODEL # define MCT_INTERP_OC2AT #define UV_ADV #define UV_COR #define UV_VIS2 #define MIX_S_UV #define TS_U3HADVECTION #define TS_C4VADVECTION #undef TS_MPDATA # define UV_LOGDRAG #define DJ_GRADPS #define TS_DIF2 #define MIX_GEO_TS #define SALINITY #define SOLVE3D #define SPLINES #undef AVERAGES #define NONLIN_EOS #define MASKING

  29. Model Error • Energy norm • Scale-adjusted perturbations (model-obs) of U, V, W, P, T, and Q) • Despite SST errors and free running, model simulation remains stable

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