1 / 37

The Past and Future of Climate

The Past and Future of Climate. February 2008 David Archibald Greener Skies 2008 Hong Kong. The 29 years of High Quality Satellite Data. Global. Northern Hemisphere. Southern Hemisphere.

dianne
Download Presentation

The Past and Future of Climate

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. The Past and Future of Climate February 2008 David Archibald Greener Skies 2008 Hong Kong

  2. The 29 years of High Quality Satellite Data Global Northern Hemisphere Southern Hemisphere The Southern Hemisphere is the same temperature it was 28 years ago, the Northern Hemisphere has warmed slightly.

  3. Recent Positive Anomaly

  4. 17.5 17.0 16.5 16.0 Annual Average Temperature 15.5 15.0 14.5 14.0 1893 1903 1913 1923 1933 1943 1953 1963 1973 1983 1993 2003 A Rural US Data Set The smoothed average annual temperature of the Hawkinsville (32.3N, 83.5W), Glennville (31.3N, 89.1W), Calhoun Research Station (32.5N, 92.3W), Highlands (35.0N, 82.3W) and Talbotton (32.7N, 84.5W) stations is representative of the US temperature profile away from the urban heat island effect over the last 100 years (Data source: NASA GISS)

  5. A 300 Year Thermometer RecordCentral England Temperature

  6. Medieval Warm Period – Little Ice Age

  7. The Holocene Optimum

  8. Vostok Ice Core Temperature Holocene Years Before Present

  9. Vostok Interglacials Superimposed and aligned on Peak Temperature Holocene Eemian 3,000 years Holocene Eemian

  10. Ice Ages – The Longer Term Record

  11. Climate over Geologic Time

  12. The Solar Driver

  13. The Dalton Minimum at Three European Stations 1770 to 1840

  14. Sunspot Cycle Length Relative to Temperature De Bilt, Netherlands 1705 - 2000

  15. Sunspot Cycle Length Relative to Temperature Armagh, Northern Ireland 1796 – 1992 Solar Cycle 22 Solar Cycle 23

  16. Portland, ME

  17. Hanover, NH Solar Cycle 22 2.2 Degrees Celcius Solar Cycle 23

  18. The Transition from Solar Cycle 22 to Solar Cycle 23

  19. Accumulated Number of Spotless Days – Solar Cycles 10 to 15 compared to Solar Cycles 16 to 23 Source: Jan Janssens, Belgian Solar Section

  20. The Solar – Climate Relationship Fewer Sunspots Less Solar Wind Lower Magnetic Field Strength More Sunlight Reflected Into Space More Low Level Cloud Formation More Galactic Cosmic Rays Earth Becomes Colder

  21. The Solar Dynamo Index

  22. Polar Faculae Solar Cycles 22 – 23 minimum Solar Cycles 23 – 24 minimum Source: Jan Janssens, Belgian Solar Section

  23. Interplanetary Magnetic Field 1970s Cooling Period Solar Cycle 20 Solar Cycle 21 Solar Cycle 22 Solar Cycle 23

  24. Total Solar Irradiance

  25. Oulu, Finland Neutron Monitor Count 1960 - 2010 Solar Cycle 20 Maximum Solar Cycle 21 Maximum Solar Cycle 22 Maximum Solar Cycle 23 Maximum

  26. The Consequential Climate Shift 1 year increase in solar cycle length 0.7° celcius decline in temperature 100 kilometre equator-ward shift in growing conditions

  27. Projected Temperature Profile to 2030

  28. Another Dalton Minimum, or Worse? “The surprising result of these long-range predictions is a rapid decline in solar activity, starting with cycle #24. If this trend continues, we may see the Sun heading towards a “Maunder” type of solar activity minimum - an extensive period of reduced levels of solar activity.” K.H.Schatten and W.K.Tobiska, 34th Solar Physics Division Meeting, June 2003, American Astronomical Society

  29. The Warming Effect of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Pre-industrial level Level in 2008

  30. Relative Contributions of Pre-Industrial and Anthropogenic CO2 380 – 1000 ppm Existing and Potential Anthropogenic CO2 Greenhouse Effect 280 – 380 ppm 20 – 280 ppm Pre-industrial CO2 Greenhouse Effect 0 – 20 ppm

  31. Atmospheric CO2 In ppm 500 million years ago 400 million years ago “the safe upper limit for atmospheric CO2 is no more than 350 ppm” – Dr Hansen of NASA, American Geophysical Union meeting, San Francisco, December 2007 150 million years ago Dr Hansen’s safe upper limit Pre-industrial level of 280 ppm Level reached during interglacials, level below which plant growth shuts down

  32. Comparison of Climate Sensitivity Estimates 280 ppm to 560 ppm of CO2 IPCC High Low Stefan- Boltzmann Kininmonth Lindzen Based on Idso

  33. Historic and Projected Atmospheric Carbon Contributions by the United States, China and Australia

  34. Can Carbon Dioxide be even a little bit bad?

  35. Average Growth Enhancement due to a 300 ppm increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide Source: Idso May 2007

  36. Stressed relative to unstressed plant response

  37. AGW Proponents are Exactly Wrong • The Earth is getting colder and this will accelerate. • Carbon dioxide has a minuscule warming effect. • Increased atmospheric carbon dioxide will increase agricultural productivity. • The ideal atmospheric carbon dioxide level is a minimum of 1,000 ppm

More Related