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Hydrology and Water Management Applications of GCIP Research

Hydrology and Water Management Applications of GCIP Research. Dennis P. Lettenmaier Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington for presentation at Stakeholder Session Mississippi River Climate and Hydrology Conference New Orleans May 14, 2002.

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Hydrology and Water Management Applications of GCIP Research

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  1. Hydrology and Water Management Applications of GCIP Research Dennis P. Lettenmaier Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Washington for presentation at Stakeholder Session Mississippi River Climate and Hydrology Conference New Orleans May 14, 2002

  2. GEWEX and GCIP Goals Scientific goal: “To observe and model the hydrologic cycle and energy fluxes in the atmosphere, and at the land and ocean surface” Applications goal: “Demonstrate skill in predicting changes in water resources on time scales up to seasonal, annual and interannual”

  3. GCIP Contributions for Water Management • Data sets • Macroscale land surface model development and improvements • Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) • Forecast method and product development

  4. Data Sets Many, key examples include: • WSR-88d retrospective archive (1996-2000) • GOES solar radiation • LDAS retrospective (model forcing, e.g., precipitation, and model-derived, e.g., soil moisture) • LDAS real time

  5. LDAS Modeling Domain • Domain is North America between 25º and 53º N • Resolution 1/8º • 77,000 grid cells through domain (56,000 in Continental U.S.) • Model developed for 15 sub-regions • Model forcing data (1949-2000) derived from observations • Run at a 3-hour time step

  6. LDAS Derived Soil Moisture - Active Range • Long term spatial data set allows characterization of variability • Dynamic range of the soil column • Degree to which source of variability (P) is buffered by soil column • Level of hydrologic interaction of soil column 50-Year Soil Moisture Range Scaled by Annual Precipitation

  7. Macroscale land surface model development and improvements

  8. VIC Hydrologic Model

  9. Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS)

  10. LDAS land surface model (LSM) and coupled model interaction

  11. LDAS real-time soil moisture

  12. Forecast method and product development

  13. Coupled GCM Embedded Regional CM Macro-Scale Hydrology Model (VIC) SST Forecast

  14. How NCEP makes experimental ensemble climate forecasts 2x2 degree AGCM 20 different Initial states of the atmosphere 20 unique forecasts of the climate over the next six months We use the raw model output at this point. …but, we must recognize the scale mismatch Coupled Ocean-AGCM Initial and Predicted SST for next 6 months

  15. GSM PCP OBS PCP PROB PROB RAW FORECAST PCP BIAS-CORR PCP

  16. East CoastApr ’00 forecast for May-Jun-Jul forecast median shown as percentile of climatology ensemble

  17. forecast CRB May forecast hindcast “observed” forecast medians

  18. CRBMay Forecastcumulative flow averages forecast medians

  19. Information Xfer to Stakeholders: How well did GCIP succeed in “demonstrating skill”? Conclusion: Quite well, if the goal is taken literally but Demonstrated use of GCIP “products” by water managers is minimal why?

  20. Scientists are not particularly skilled, or even interested in, “technology transfer” • Practitioners are stuck in “paradigm lock”; institutional inertia on algorithms and methods • GCIP/GAPP has provided science, not applications funding -- focus on many small projects of limited duration discourages long-term view • Possible solution: better liaison with RISAs as mechanism for breaking “paradigm lock”

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