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Disruptive Demographic Trends in North Carolina

September 2013 . Disruptive Demographic Trends in North Carolina . James H. Johnson, Jr. Frank Hawkins Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise Kenan-Flagler Business School University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. OVERVIEW. Demographic Trends Challenges & Opportunities Discussion.

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Disruptive Demographic Trends in North Carolina

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  1. September 2013 Disruptive Demographic Trends in North Carolina James H. Johnson, Jr. Frank Hawkins Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise Kenan-Flagler Business School University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

  2. OVERVIEW • Demographic Trends • Challenges & Opportunities • Discussion

  3. CENSUS 2010 what will REVEAL September 2013

  4. 6 DISRUPTIVE TRENDS • The South Rises – Again • The Browning of America • Marrying Out is “In” • The Silver Tsunami is About to Hit • The End of Men? • Cooling Water from Grandma’s Well… and Grandpa’s Too!

  5. The South Continues To Rise ...Again!

  6. SOUTH’S SHARE OF U.S. NET POPULATION GROWTH, SELECTED YEARS, 1910-2010

  7. U.S. POPULATION CHANGE BY REGION, 2000-2010

  8. SHARES OF NET POPULATION GROWTH BY REGION, 2000-2010

  9. NET MIGRATION TRENDS, 2000-2008 = Net Import = Net Export

  10. GROSS AND NET MIGRATION FOR THE SOUTH, 2004-2010

  11. STATE SHARE OF SOUTH’S NET GROWTH, 2000-2010

  12. THE “BROWNING” OF AMERICA

  13. The Numbers Legal Immigrants Refugees, Parolees, Asylees

  14. The Numbers Cont’d

  15. NON-IMMIGRANTS ADMITTED TO UNITED STATES, SELECTED YEARS, 1981-2011

  16. U.S. Immigrant Population, 1900-2011

  17. U.S. Foreign Born Population by Race/Ethnicity, 2011

  18. NON-WHITE AND HISPANIC SHARES OF POPULATION GROWTH, 2000-2010

  19. THE “BROWNING” OF NORTH CAROLINA Immigration-Driven Population Change

  20. NORTH CAROLINA POPULATION GROWTH BY NATIVITY, RACE, AND ETHNICITY, 1990-2007

  21. NORTH CAROLINA FOREIGN BORN POPULATION GROWTH , 1990-2007

  22. CONTRIBUTIONS OF NON-WHITES & HISPANICS TO NC POPULATION CHANGE, 2000-2010 Source: Census 2000 and Census 2010. *Non-whites include Blacks, Hispanics, American Indians and Alaskan Natives, Asians, Native Hawaiians & Pacific Islanders, and people of two or more races.

  23. CHANGE IN THE RACE/ETHNIC COMPOSITION OF NC PUBLIC SCHOOLS, 2000-2009 . Source: DPI, The Statistical Profile Online

  24. NC COUNTIES WITH THE LARGEST ABSOLUTE POPULATION GAINS, 2000-2010

  25. NC COUNTIES EXPERIENCING POPULATION DECLINE,  2000-2010

  26. Counties with Biologically Declining Populations, 2009

  27. Why we must embrace immigrants

  28. NC’s SILVER TSUNAMI

  29. U.S. POPULATION CHANGE BY AGE, 2000-2009

  30. U.S. POPULATION TURNING 50, 55, 62, AND 65 YEARS OF AGE, (2007-2015)

  31. DEPENDENCY RATIOS IN THE AMERICAN SOUTH Source: Census 2010

  32. NC ABSOLUTE POPULATION CHANGE BY AGE, 2000-2010

  33. DEPENDENCY RATES FOR SELECTED SOUTHERN STATES, 2006-2010

  34. Distribution of Widowed Elderly Women by County, The Carolinas, 2010

  35. MEDIAN AGE & FERTILITY RATES FOR FEMALES IN NC, 2005-2009 . Source: American Community Survey *Women 15 to 50 with births in past 12 months

  36. RELATIVE DISTRIBUTION OF U.S. BIRTHS BY RACE / ETHNICITY Source: Johnson and Lichter (2010); Tavernise (2011).

  37. Immigrant Costs and Benefits

  38. Conceptual Framework for Assessing the Economic Impact of Immigrants

  39. SUMMARY RESULTS OF THREE ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDIES

  40. Projected Changes in U.S. Buying Power by Race/Ethnicity, 2010-2015

  41. Moving Forward • Recognize that we are aging • Embrace immigrants • We need young talent to propel our economy and to pay the bills • Recognize the business and job creation potential of diverse ethnic markets

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