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Demographic Trends in Religion. Eric Kaufmann, Harvard University/ Birkbeck-University of London e.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk. 2 Aspects of Religion. Power of Religious Institutions over State Individual piety I focus on second aspect – tends to affect the first.

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demographic trends in religion

Demographic Trends in Religion

Eric Kaufmann,

Harvard University/

Birkbeck-University of London

e.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk

2 aspects of religion
2 Aspects of Religion
  • Power of Religious Institutions over State
  • Individual piety
  • I focus on second aspect – tends to affect the first
slide3
Based on affiliation (ie baptism for Christians)
  • Applying affiliation data to country demographic projections
broad trends
Broad Trends
  • Secularization: Catholic and part-Catholic Europe + Canada/Australasia/’blue’ states + southern cone of Latin America + global elite
  • Stability: Protestant Europe + USA+Hinduism
  • Resurgence: Islam, Pentecostalism (Asia, Latin America + Global South)
demography is key
Demography is Key
  • Inglehart: more are born in religious countries, so make up a larger share of global total. ***Send immigrants to nonreligious countries
  • Lesthaeghe: once everyone has access to contraception and family planning, values matter more for fertility
  • Conclusion: Some may become secular, but more will become religiously conservative
will they keep the kids
Will They Keep the Kids?
  • Yes
  • ‘Strict’ religions more successful in inspiring commitment, retaining members
  • High fertility + high retention = high growth
  • Hutterites: 400 in 1880, 50,000 today. From .7% to 3.3% of Canadian prairie farm population, 1951-81
  • Mormons: now outnumber Jews for those born after 1945
slide15

Source: WVS 1999-2000. N = 2796 respondents in towns under 10,000 and 1561 respondents in cities over 100,000. Asked in Algeria, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Jordan, Pakistan, Nigeria and Egypt.

conclusion
Conclusion
  • Religious – especially conservative religious, have larger families, retain members well
  • State religious authorities matter more for fertility in authoritarian societies; conservative movements and individuals count for more in democratic ones
  • Expect a growth in conservative Islam, Judaism and Christianity; Some erosion of moderate religion; Only Catholic Europe will see much secularization
demographic trends in religion17

Demographic Trends in Religion

Eric Kaufmann,

Harvard University/

Birkbeck-University of London

e.kaufmann@bbk.ac.uk