1 / 27

Natural Gas Advisory Committee

Natural Gas Advisory Committee. August 15, 2008. Agenda. Introductions Discussion of oil markets (Sam VanVactor) Recent fuel prices and proposed forecasts Peak deliverability of gas (Dan Kirschner) Estimation of monthly natural gas prices at western hubs. Role of the Fuel Price Forecast.

pburtch
Download Presentation

Natural Gas Advisory Committee

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Natural Gas Advisory Committee August 15, 2008

  2. Agenda • Introductions • Discussion of oil markets (Sam VanVactor) • Recent fuel prices and proposed forecasts • Peak deliverability of gas (Dan Kirschner) • Estimation of monthly natural gas prices at western hubs

  3. Role of the Fuel Price Forecast • Determine a range of possible long-term trends in fuel prices • Commodity cycles around the trend and short-term volatility are added to the trends in the Portfolio Model analysis • Commodity costs affect resource selection, generation cost, and price of electricity • Retail prices affect demand for fuels and electricity (directly through competition, indirectly through cost of generation) • Address supply and deliverability for power generation

  4. Fuel Price Forecasts • Fifth Power Plan (Summer 2004) • Revised Council Forecast (Sept. 2007) • Proposed NGAC (Aug. 2008) • Draft for Sixth Power Plan (Oct. 2008)

  5. Natural Gas

  6. Example risk treatment – natural gas prices

  7. Working Natural Gas Price Forecast(2006 $ Per MMBtu at Wellhead)

  8. Total Delivery Costs

  9. World Oil Prices

  10. Working Crude Oil Price Forecasts(Imported RAQ in 2006 $ / Bbl.)

  11. Coal Prices

  12. Spot Coal PricesApril 05 To April 08 Source: EIA

  13. Working Coal Price Forecast(Powder River in 2000$/ MMBtu)

More Related