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Development of a Snow Accumulation and Ablation Model to Evaluate Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Downhill Ski Co PowerPoint Presentation
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Development of a Snow Accumulation and Ablation Model to Evaluate Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Downhill Ski Conditions in Northern Lower Michigan Peter J. Sousounis, Ph.D. Acton, Massachusetts 30 March 2005 Executive Summary

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Presentation Transcript
slide1

Development of a Snow Accumulation and Ablation Model

to Evaluate Potential Impacts of Climate Change

on Downhill Ski Conditions in Northern Lower Michigan

Peter J. Sousounis, Ph.D.

Acton, Massachusetts

30 March 2005

slide2

Executive Summary

snow accumul model used relationship between temp and snow:water ratio.

regression analysis performed using 42 years worth of daily climate data from East Jordan, MI, from 1960-2002.

snow ablation model accounted for compaction, sublimation, and melting.

models combined to form a snow accumulation and ablation model (SAAM) to forecast daily snowfall totals and snow depth on the ground.

SAAM tested using East Jordan Climate record

SAAM applied to GCM output to evaluate potential impacts of climate change on the downhill ski season in northern lower Michigan.

snowmaking effects included

mountain slope and ski trail orientation not included

slide3

Model Info

Converting rainfall to snowfall amounts

slide4

Results

Modeled vs observed snowfall at East Jordan, MI

40 yr means

2586 mm

2502 mm

slide5

Results

Modeled vs observed snowfall at East Jordan, MI

40 yr means

2586 mm

2502 mm

slide6

Results

Snowfall days at East Jordan, MI – over 01 inches

40 yr means

38 days

40 days

slide7

Results

Snowcover days at East Jordan, MI – over 01 inches

40 yr means

112 days

109 days

slide8

Results

Snowcover days at East Jordan, MI – over 12 inches

40 yr means

44 days

49 days

slide9

Results

Snowdepth at East Jordan, MI – Christmas Day

40 yr means

221 mm

203 mm

slide10

Results

Last Day of snowcover at East Jordan, MI

40 yr means

March 22

March 22

slide11

Results

Modeled vs observed snowfall at East Jordan, MI

40 yr means

2586 mm

2502 mm

slide12

Results

Summary of snowmodel characteristics at East Jordan, MI

slide13

Results

Modeled vs observed snowfall at Ironwood, MI

40 yr means

4273 mm

4290 mm

slide14

Climate Change Impacts on Alpine Skiing

  • Four scenarios
  • CGCM2_A2a
  • CGCM2_B2a
  • HadCM3_A2a
  • HadCM3_B2a
  • Three Variables
  • Tmax
  • Tmin
  • precip
slide15

Climate Change Impacts on Alpine Skiing

  • Ski Day
  • snowdepth > 300 mm
  • Tmax < 4 C
  • Ski season allowed to extend beyond snowmaking season
  • Snowmaking
  • Tmin < -4 C
  • no precip that day
  • snowdepth < 350 mm that day
  • snowmaking capacity: 100 mm/day
  • snowmaking season: Nov 25 – Mar 30
slide18

Climate Change Impacts on Alpine Skiing

ski days – CGCMa A2a climate change scenario

slide19

Climate Change Impacts on Alpine Skiing

ski days – CGCMa B2a climate change scenario

slide20

Climate Change Impacts on Alpine Skiing

ski days – HadCM3 A2a climate change scenario

slide21

Climate Change Impacts on Alpine Skiing

ski days – HadCM3 A2a climate change scenario

slide22

Climate Change Impacts on Alpine Skiing

an interactive web site

Location

Climate Scenario

East Jordan, MI

HadCM3 A2a

Begin Winter

End Winter

2020-2021

2039-2040

Snow Mak Conditions

Snow Mak Capacity

Tmin< 26 F & Sd < 12”

100 mm/day

Variable

Output Format

Total Snowfall

Mean Snowdepth

Maximum Snowdepth

Snowdepth on Dec 25th

Day of First Snow > 1 in

Days w/ Snowc > 1 in

Days w/ Snowc > 6 in

Snowmaking Days

Skiable Days

Graph

submit

reset

slide23

Climate Change Impacts on Alpine Skiing

  • Extensions
  • Evaluate more scenarios
  • Consider downscaled information as it becomes available
  • Evaluate impacts with assumed changes in snowmaking technology – e.g. more snow made in warmer conds.
  • Web page online