International Trade Appleyard, Field & Cobb Chapter 1
World trade • World output: $50 trillion at current prices (2007) • Merchandise exports were $10.2 trillion (2005) while in 1985, it was $2 trillion • Table 1
Table 1: Growth in volume of world goods, production and trade, 1963-2005 (average annual percentage change in volume)
World trade pattern • Throughout the past four decades, international trade volume has, on average, outgrown production, illustrating how countries are becoming more interdependent.
The geographical composition of world trade • Destination of merchandise exports in 2005
Table 2: Exports and Imports by Region, 2005 (billions of dollars and percentage of world totals)
Regional Trends • 55.8 % of merchandise exports of countries in North America went to other North American countries • Asian trade is also an important trade region • Emerging countries – BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China)
What is traded? • The commodity composition of trade • Manufactures account for 72 percent of trade • Among primary goods: fuel accounts for 13.8 percent • Among manufactured goods: machinery and transport equipment account for 37.9 percent • Services ?
World Trade in Services • More than US$ 2 trillion in 2005 (one-sixth of the total trade in goods and services) • Services are 77% of GDP in France; 69 % in Germany, 77 % in the U.S., 73% in the United Kingdom and 68% in Japan • Includes: wholesale and retail trade, restaurants and hotels, personal services, community services, social services and government services.
International Standard Industrial Classification (ISIC) • Wholesale and retail trade, restaurants and hotels, transport, storage, communications, financial services, insurance, real estate, business services, personal services, community services, social services, and government services.
Service Outsourcing • Foreign Affairs, 2006 Alan Blinder • Manufacturing trade vs. service sector trade • Figure 2-8
Country level • Germany is the largest country exporter (displaced the United States in 2003) • 6 largest traders (exports plus imports) are: Germany, United States, China, Japan, France and the United Kingdom) which account for 40 percent of world trade • On the other hand, almost 200 countries account for about 45 percent
United States trade patterns A brief overview
U.S. International Trade • Canada is the most important trade partner both for exports and imports • NAFTA members are the largest multi-country unit • Third largest partner is China, followed by Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom, South Korea, Taiwan and France • Trade deficit due to China, Japan and Canada
Composition of U.S. trade, 2005, (billions of dollars & percentage shares)
Composition of U.S. trade • Capital goods category is the largest single export category and is dominated by nonelectric machinery. • Sizable net imports occur in consumer goods, autos, and energy products • Energy products account for 17.6 percent of total imports
Turkey Trade patterns A brief overview
Trade statistics - Turkey • GDP (purchasing power parity): • $902.7 billion (2008 est. in 2008 U.S. dollars) • GDP (official exchange rate): • $729.4 billion (2008 est.) • GDP - real growth rate: • 1.1% (2008 est.) • GDP - per capita (PPP): • $11,900 (2008 est.)
Trade statistics - Turkey • GDP - composition by sector: • agriculture: 8.8% • industry: 27.5% • services: 63.8% (2008 est.) • Labor force - by occupation: • agriculture: 29.5% • industry: 24.7% • services: 45.8% (2005)
Trade statistics - Turkey • Current account balance: • -$41.6 billion (2008 est.) • -$37.7 billion (2007 est.) • Exports: • $140.8 billion (2008 est.) • $115.4 billion (2007 est.) • Exports - commodities: • apparel, foodstuffs, textiles, metal manufactures, transport equipment
Trade statistics - Turkey • Exports - partners: • Germany 9.8%, UK 6.2%, UAE 6%, Italy 5.9%, France 5%, Russia 4.9% (2008) • Imports: • $193.9 billion (2008 est.) • $162 billion (2007 est.)
Trade statistics - Turkey • Imports - commodities: • machinery, chemicals, semi-finished goods, fuels, transport equipment • Imports - partners: • Russia 15.5%, Germany 9.3%, China 7.8%, US 5.9%, Italy 5.5%, France 4.5%, Iran 4.1% (2008)
Current account deficits • The exports reached $115.3 billion in 2007, but imports rose to $162.1 billion, mostly due to the rising demand for energy resources like natural gas and crude oil.
Foreign Direct Investment • Turkey is one of the largest sources of foreign direct investment in central and eastern Europe , with more than $1.5 billion invested in these countries. 32% has been invested in Russia, primarily in the natural resources and construction sector, and 46% in Turkey’s Black Sea neighbors, Bulgaria and Romania. • Turkish companies also have sizable FDI stocks in Poland, at about $100 million.
Agricultural products • As of March 2007, Turkey is the world's largest producer of hazelnut, cherry, fig, apricot, quince and pomegranate; the second largest producer of watermelon, cucumber and chickpea; the third largest producer of tomato, eggplant, green pepper, lentil and pistacchio; the fourth largest producer of onion and olive
Global players • In 2008, 14 Turkish companies were listed in the Forbes Global 2000 list - an annual ranking of the top 2000 public companies in the world by Forbes magazine. • The 10 leading companies were:
Industrial exports • Textiles and clothing also constitutes the largest share in total exports (19% in 2005), followed by automotive (18%), iron and steel (13%), white goods (10%), chemicals and pharmaceuticals (9%), and machinery (7%). • Izmir Atatürk Organized Industrial Zone (IAOIZ) is one of the largest and most modern organized industrial zones in Turkey.
Service sector - Turkey • Turkey's economy is no longer dominated by traditional agricultural activities in the rural areas, but more so by a highly dynamic industrial complex in the major cities, mostly concentrated in the western provinces of the country, along with a developed services sector. • In 2007, the agricultural sector accounted for 8.9% of the GDP, while the industrial sector accounted for 30.8% and the services sector accounted for 59.3%
Transportation • The Ankara-Eskişehir section of the line, which has a length of 245 km and a projected travel time of 65 minutes, is completed. Trials began on April 23, 2007, and revenue earning service began on March 13, 2009. • The Eskişehir-Istanbul section of the line is scheduled to be completed by 2009
Financial sector • In 1998, there were 72 banks. In late 2000 and early 2001 a growing trade deficit and weaknesses in the banking sector plunged the economy into crisis. This financial breakdown brought the number of banks to 31. • Currently more than 34% of the assets are concentrated in the Agricultural Bank (ZiraatBankası), Housing Bank (YapıKrediBankası), Isbank (TürkiyeİşBankası) and Akbank. • The five big state-owned banks were restructured in 2001.
Communications • Telecommunications were liberalized in 2004 after the creation of the Telecommunication Authority. • Private sector companies operate in mobile telephony and Internet access. • There were 19 million fixed phone lines, 36 million mobile phones, and 12 million Internet users by the August, 2005.
Tourism • Tourism is one of the most dynamic and fastest developing sectors in Turkey. According to travel agencies TUI AG and Thomas Cook, 11 of the 100 best hotels of the world are located in Turkey. • In 2005, there were 24,124,501 visitors to the country, who contributed $18.2 billion to Turkey's revenues, with an average expenditure of $679 per tourist
International interdependence for selected countries and groups (export of goods and non-factor services as a percentage of GDP)