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Sunday, 17 August 2014

Weather, Water & Food Security. Sunday, 17 August 2014. Contents. Food Security Food Deserts Urban Agriculture Extreme Weather and Food Security Agricultural disruption Economic disruption Logistical disruption Water and Food Security Climate and Agriculture (Deserts)

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Sunday, 17 August 2014

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  1. Weather, Water & Food Security Sunday, 17 August 2014

  2. Contents • Food Security Food Deserts Urban Agriculture • Extreme Weather and Food Security Agricultural disruption Economic disruption Logistical disruption • Water and Food Security Climate and Agriculture (Deserts) Droughts and Desertification Famine • Climate Change • Geographic Disparities • International Concerns The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  3. Food Security: What is it? IUGG The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  4. Food Deserts http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/ap-administrative-publication/ap-036.aspx The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  5. Food Deserts The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  6. Urban Agriculture http://jacsmit.com/book.html The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  7. Contents • Food Security Food Deserts Urban Agriculture • Extreme Weather and Food Security Agricultural disruption Economic disruption Logistical disruption • Water and Food Security Climate and Agriculture (Deserts) Droughts and Desertification Famine • Climate Change • Geographic Disparities • International Concerns The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  8. Vulnerability to Extreme Weather The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  9. Extreme Weather • Severe Storms • Flooding • Storm damage – due to wind and/or rain • Hail damage • Tornadoes • Tropical Cyclones (Hurricanes, Typhoons) • Strong winds can destroy buildings, crops, and cause large waves. • Extreme rain rates can lead to flooding • Low pressures can produce storm surge and inundation The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  10. Cyclone Yasi - February 2011 http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone/history/yasi.shtml#loops http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OcndUrVzW20&feature=youtu.be&noredirect=1 The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  11. Cyclone Yasi - February 2011 Winds Rain Storm surge Flooding X The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  12. TCLarry TCYasi The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  13. Contents • Food Security Food Deserts Urban Agriculture • Extreme Weather and Food Security Agricultural disruption Economic disruption Logistical disruption • Water and Food Security Climate and Agriculture (Deserts) Droughts and Desertification Famine • Climate Change • Geographic Disparities • International Concerns The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  14. Some Climate Classics The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  15. Drought and Fire The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  16. … fire-prone vegetation: the Australian eucalypt.

  17. Major Bushfires in Australia

  18. The Sahel A vegetation-climate feedback? Exacerbated by increasing atmospheric aerosols • Volcanoes, Nuclear Winter and drought • Climate Change The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  19. Eruption of Laki ("Skaftá fires") The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  20. Icelandic Haze Famine of 1783 Iceland Mist Hardships - 20–25% of the population died in the famine. 80% of sheep, 50% of cattle and 50% of horses died because of fluorosis from the 8 million tons of hydrogen fluoride release. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  21. Icelandic Haze Famine of 1783 Monsoon regions Laki eruption weakened African and Indian monsoon circulations, leading to between 1 and 3 millimetres less daily precipitation than normal over the Sahel of Africa, resulting in, among other effects, low flow in the River Nile. Thus famine in Egypt in 1784. . The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  22. Icelandic Haze Famine of 1783 Europe Sulfur dioxide during unusual weather conditions caused a thick haze to spread across western Europe, resulting in many thousands of deaths throughout 1783 and the winter of 1784. The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  23. Icelandic Haze Famine of 1783 North America The winter of 1784 was the longest and one of the coldest on record. It was the longest period of below-zero temperatures in New England, with the largest accumulation of snow in New Jersey and the longest freezing over of the Chesapeake Bay. An extreme snowstorm hit the south, the Mississippi River froze at New Orleans and there was ice in the Gulf of Mexico. . The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  24. Contents • Urbanisation and Food Security Food deserts Urban Agriculture • Extreme Weather Agricultural disruption Economic disruption Logistical disruption • Climate and Food Security Climate and Agriculture (Deserts) Droughts and Desertification Famine • Climate Change • Geographic Disparities • International Concerns The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  25. Climate Change

  26. Climate Change

  27. Climate Change and Chill units • Already there is evidence that climate change is impacting on the apple and pear industries, with increased climate variability and reduced chilling hours, which are necessary for quality fruit production. • The Huon Valley of Tasmania has shown an increase in average minimum temperatures from 1950 of about 0.6°C across both summer and winter. • At Orange, NSW, the winter (May to October) average minimums have also risen by 0.6°C • The Goulburn Valley Victoria has experienced a decline in the average number of days with minimums below 7°C indicating a reduction in winter chill units http://www.aph.gov.au/binaries/senate/committee/rrat_ctte/climate_change/submissions/sub23.pdf The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  28. Warming impact on pome fruit flowering Batlow ACT Manjimup WA Chill period Growth period Full-bloom timing Chill period Growth period Full-bloom timing 185 185 305 285 150 150 265 295 Number of days 115 115 Number of days Day of year Day of year 100 100 245 285 35 35 225 50 50 275 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 3°C 3°C 3°C 3°C 3°C 3°C Current Current Current Current Current Current ...whilst at Manjimup, a milder region: Chill is noticeably delayed with limited influence of warming in spring leading to a delay in full-bloom timing. Batlow - a cool region: Although chill is prolonged, warming in spring still dominates leading to earlier bloom time. Darbyshire et al. in press

  29. Where does the uncertainty lie? • A greater proportion of the uncertainty in climate change impact projections was due to variations among crop models than to variations among downscaled general circulation models • S. Asseng, F. Ewert, C. Rosenzweig, et al. • Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change • Nature Climate Change(2013) • DOI: • doi:10.1038/nclimate1916 The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  30. Contents • Food Security Food Deserts Urban Agriculture • Extreme Weather and Food Security Agricultural disruption Economic disruption Logistical disruption • Water and Food Security Climate and Agriculture (Deserts) Droughts and Desertification Famine • Climate Change • Geographic Disparities • International Concerns The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  31. Geographic disparities The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  32. Contents • Food Security Food Deserts Urban Agriculture • Extreme Weather and Food Security Agricultural disruption Economic disruption Logistical disruption • Water and Food Security Climate and Agriculture (Deserts) Droughts and Desertification Famine • Climate Change • Geographic Disparities • International Concerns The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  33. Nutrition The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  34. Nutrition The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  35. Nutrition The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  36. Nutrition The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  37. The International Response The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  38. CGIAR The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  39. PantaRheiThe IAHS Scientific Decade 2013-2022www.iahs.info / http://distart119.ing.unibo.it/pantarhei Alberto MontanariDepartment DICAM – Universityof Bolognaalberto.montanari@unibo.it – www.albertomontanari.itChairofPantaRheiBiennium 2013 - 2015

  40. PantaRhei – EverythingFlows • Key issues • Modelling non-steady behaviours. • Humans as part of the system (vs pristine catchments). • Interaction with society and stakeholders. • Hydrological change is the interface of environmental change with humans and society. • Integrated treatment of understanding and uncertainty for improved prediction. The Targets of PantaRhei (Courtesy by Eva Boegh)

  41. Aboutprocesses and models…. Modelling Science in practice Stakeholders

  42. IUGG Commission on Climate and Environmental Change The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  43. IUGG Commission on Climate and Environmental Change The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  44. WeatCliFS • The International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) is leading the WeatCliFS consortium of international scientific unions to examine weather, climate and food security as well as to look at the interaction of food security and geophysical phenomena. The following fundamental question underpins WeatCliFS: • What technologies and methodologies are required to assess the vulnerability of people and places to hazards [such as famine] – and how might these be used at a variety of spatial and temporal scales? The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate ResearchA partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

  45. Thank you CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research Tom Beer Phone: +61 3 9239 4546 Email: Tom.Beer@csiro.au Web: www.csiro.au Contact UsPhone: 1300 363 400 or +61 3 9545 2176Email: Enquiries@csiro.au Web: www.csiro.au

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