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  1. Powertrain Strategies for the 21st Century: 2007 Results University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute Automotive Analysis Division (formerly OSAT) Bruce M. Belzowski Associate Director and Assistant Research Scientist Sponsored by: Denso Corporation U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

  2. Powertrain Strategies for the 21st Century • A research project focused on providing • the global automotive industry • with insights into the future of powertrains • A continuing study measuring expert opinions over many years • A global study measuring experts opinions separately across North America, EU, and Asia

  3. Powertrain Strategies for the 21st Century • What makes this study unique? • Global panel of powertrain experts • Annual updates of forecasts and deep dives into current topics • All electronic survey administration and report out. • Weighted responses based on expertise of respondent and new methods to measure point estimates for forecasts

  4. 2007 Expert Survey Sample Respondents: 36 managers20 CEOs, presidents, and vice-presidents 28 chief engineers and directors14 researchers and scientists 25 engineers and techniciansSample Respondents: 29 manufacturers45 suppliers44 other experts

  5. CAFE

  6. Mandates and tax incentives are considered the most feasible, while gas taxes and mandates are considered the most successful Less Feasible/Successful More Feasible/Successful Policy Instruments Gas Taxes Mandates (e.g. CAFE) Feebates Tax Incentives

  7. Experts in 2006 reported the CAFE standard for passenger cars would increase 20% by 2015 and 38% by 2020 2006* 2015 2020 Miles Per Gallon *Source:NHTSA CAFE Standard

  8. In 2006, the CAFE standard for light trucks was expected to increase 25% by 2015 and 44% by 2020 2006* 2015 2020 Miles Per Gallon *Source:NHTSA CAFE Standard

  9. Foreign-owned manufacturers are considered more likely to meet the new CAFE goals Less Likely to Meet CAFE goals More Likely to meet CAFE goals Foreign Owned Manufacturers US Manufacturers

  10. Fuel Prices (Influenced by a fleet CAFE of 35 mpg using an attribute-based System)

  11. The predicted price of unleaded regular gas for 2020 has increased by 8% in one year 2006* 2020 (2006) 2020 (2007) Price Per Gallon *Source:Energy Information Administration (Jan~Dec ’06)

  12. The predicted price of unleaded premium gas for 2020 has increased by 8% in one year 2006* 2020 (2006) 2020 (2007) Price Per Gallon *Source:Energy Information Administration (Jan~Dec ’06)

  13. Experts report a wide range of possible prices for fuel in 2020 Unleaded Lower Bound Upper Bound Premium Lower Bound Upper Bound Dollars per Gallon

  14. Consumer Fuel Sensitivity in 2006 was rated close to current fuel prices in 2007 Consumer Fuel Sensitivity At $3.95 per gallon, consumers will make fuel economy a primary concern in vehicle purchase.

  15. In 2006, experts predicted growth in diesel and ethanol fuel for passenger cars for 2015 and 2020 2015 2020 Type of Fuel Hydrogen LPG/CNG Ethanol (>10% ethanol) Diesel/Biodiesel Unleaded Percent Penetration

  16. The dominance of unleaded fuel in light trucks is expected to decrease with the increase of diesel and other fuels 2015 2020 Type of Fuel Hydrogen LPG/CNG Ethanol (>10% ethanol) Diesel/Biodiesel Unleaded Percent Penetration

  17. In 2007, experts see continued growth in diesel and ethanol fuel use for light duty vehicles to reach CAFE goals for 2020 Type of Fuel Hydrogen LPG/CNG Ethanol (>10% ethanol) Diesel/Biodiesel Unleaded Percent Penetration

  18. Powerplants (Influenced by a fleet CAFE of 35 mpg using an attribute-based System)

  19. In 2006, the share of diesel and hybrid powerplants in passenger cars was expected to gain share from spark-ignited powerplants 2015 2020 Type of Powerplant Electric Fuel Cell HCCI Advanced Diesel Hybrid (plug-in/mild/diesel/full) Spark-Ignited Percent Penetration

  20. In 2006, the decrease in spark-ignited powerplants in light trucks was represented in the increase in hybrid and advanced diesel powerplants 2015 2020 Type of Powerplant Electric Fuel Cell HCCI Hybrid Advanced Diesel Spark-Ignited Percent Penetration

  21. In 2007, experts report continued growth of hybrid and diesel powertrains for light duty vehicles for 2020 Type of Powerplant Electric Fuel Cell HCCI Hybrid Advanced Diesel Spark-Ignited Percent Penetration

  22. What would the 2020 powertrain distribution in light duty vehicles look like based on a sales year such as 2007? Hybrid 24% (3,840,000) Electric 2% (320,000) ~ 16 million Light Duty Vehicles in 2007 Spark-Ignited Engine 52% (8,320,000) Fuel Cell 2% (320,000) HCCI 3% (480,000) 16% (2,560,000) Advanced Diesel

  23. Strategies and Technologies: Weight Reduction and Battery Life

  24. In 2006, experts reported a significant increase in the use of lithium-based batteries by 2015 and 2020 2015 2020 Type of Energy Storage Zinc-Air Flywheels Hydraulics Nickel-Cadmium Ultracapacitors Lithium Polymer Lead-Acid Nickel-Metal Hydride Lithium Ion Percent Penetration

  25. Experts expect advanced batteries to last at least 7-8 years by 2020 Type of Energy Storage Lead-Acid Lithium Polymer Nickel-Metal Hydride Lithium Ion Years of Life

  26. Taking out 20 percent of the weight of a vehicle by 2020 will be difficult Less Likely to be Able to Reduce Weight More Likely to Able to Reduce Weight 20% 15% 10% 5%

  27. Powertrain Strategies for the 21st Century • Other areas of analysis from 2006 study: • Alternative powerplants development challenges • Powertrain development cycles • Engine re-designs • Powertrain and Drivetrain Technologies • Number of cylinders • Diesel and spark-ignited engine technolgies • Super-charged and turbo-charged engines • Transmission mix • Drivetrain configurations • Electrical and electronic costs • Human resource issues

  28. Powertrain Strategies for the 21st Century • Other areas of analysis from the 2007 study: • Advantages and disadvantages of E85 ethanol • Because of CAFE, the changes manufacturers must make in powertrain, design, and product strategy • The state of charge swing for advanced batteries • Additional costs of alternative powertrains • Globalization of powertrains • After-treatment technology penetration

  29. Powertrain Strategies for the 21st Century • NEW Research Program: • Powertrain Innovation in the 21st Century • A National Science Foundation Grant • Studying the powertrain innovation process • How do companies develop the capabilities to create new products? • How do they partner with other companies in the R&D process? • How do companies manage their R&D portfolio to sustain competitive advantage?

  30. UMTRI-AAD • Upcoming Event: • UMTRI-AAD Automotive Luncheon • Monday, April 7, 2008 • Noon to 1:30pm • University of Michigan League • Topic: • The Cost of Improving Fuel Economy for CAFE

  31. UMTRI-AAD • Upcoming Event: • Inside China: Understanding China’s Current and Future Automotive Industry • Tuesday, April 8, 2008 • 9am to 5pm • University of Michigan, Rackham Auditorium, 1st Floor • Recent Research on: • The changing manufacturer landscape • Near term buyer preferences • New labor developments • Manufacturing capabilities • R&D and intellectual property developments • Vehicle and road safety statistics • Trends in imports/exports

  32. Powertrain Strategies for the 21st Century Bruce Belzowski UMTRI/AAD 734-936-2704 bbl@umich.edu