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solutions for the 21st century. safeguarding our future. Surety Science & Engineering Provides Reliability, Safety, and Security to our Future. Surety is... Reliability in n ormal environments Safety in abnormal environments Security & Use Control in malevolent environments.

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slide1

solutions for the 21st

century

safeguarding our future

slide2

Surety Science & Engineering

Provides Reliability, Safety, and

Security to our Future

Surety is...

Reliability

in normal environments

Safety

in abnormal environments

Security & Use Control

in malevolent environments

slide3

Our Increasingly Complex World

Demands Surety

The 50-year history in

developing and applying surety principles has provided the nation with a nuclear weapons program that has never

experienced the unthinkable—an accidental nuclear detonation.

The very same surety science and engineering principles are being used to address national problems and safeguard Americans.

The same systematic approach that incorporates modeling and simulation, testing and

evaluation, risk management, reliability development, and physical security can also

safeguard Americans in the

way they live and work, and as they move into the progressively complex future.

Ever

Growing

Complexity

Failure in this increasingly complex world has escalating consequences.

slide4

Surety Science and Engineering:

So That Things are Sure to Work

Until the advent of nuclear,

biological, and chemical weapons, and other high-

consequence events,

we were satisfied to understand

why and how things worked.

• Human Intent

• Accidents

• Acts of Nature

Desired

Results

Science Law

or Events

(A)

(C)

To prevent catastrophes, now we must go further and understand why and how things fail—so that things are sure to work.

• All other Science Laws or Events

• All other Engineering

• All other Results

slide5

Partnerships will Provide Surety

Solutions to the Challenges and

Threats of the 21st Century

Surety Science and Engineering requires public-private partnerships.

• Managing the increasing complexity of

interdependent systems

• Safe, secure, and reliable energy

• Reliable infrastructures

• No accidental nuclear detonations

• Countering physical and cyber terrorism

• Countering chemical or biological weapons

• Countering crime

• Safe and secure schools

• Solutions for aviation safety and security

• A credible nuclear deterrent

• Solutions for aging infrastructure

• Solutions for an aging nuclear stockpile

"If our nation and our precious freedoms are worth defending with the threat of

annihilation, we are surely worth defending by defensive means that ensure our survival."

–President Reagan

slide6

The Need for an Institute for

Surety Science and Engineering

Surety Science and Engineering can be fully developed by a partnership of

universities, industry, and government agencies and their national laboratories.

“Because so many key components of our society are operated by the private sector, we must create a

genuine public-private

partnership to protect America in the

21st century.”

–President Clinton

Development

Application

Institute for

Surety Science

and Engineering

Research

Education

slide7

Surety will Build a Stronger, Safer

America Against the Spectrum

of Threats

The higher the consequence, the higher the level of surety must be deployed.

With surety discipline

• Common body of knowledge,

based on well-accepted principles

• Better emphasis on the balance of

safety, reliability, security and

use control

• Government and industry

understand risk and know how

and when to mitigate it

• Systems are performance

based—therefore measurable

• Establish a new discipline of surety,

which is taught in our universities

and increases knowledge

and application

LEVEL IV

Laws of nature

and mathematics

LEVEL III

Positive measures from

science and engineering

LEVEL II

Proactive human

intervention

LEVEL I

Working sufficiently

as expected

slide8

Surety Science and Engineering is

An Evolving Discipline that needs

Your Support

Each high-consequence system, infrastructure, and threat

will have its own surety solution, developed and implemented over time.

The cost of a national program to apply surety to our 21st century threats and challenges is small

compared to the consequences of:

– a cascading failure of our infrastructures

– preventable acts of physical or

cyber terrorism or use of chemical or

biological weapons of mass destruction

– an airliner crash with fatalities

The benefits of a national surety program are compelling.

slide9

Sandia’s Heritage and

Surety Approach

Assured reliability, safety, security and use control of nuclear weapons

Attain surety based in laws of nature and mathematics –level 4

Unique Thinking

Improved fundamental understanding of how things work–and how things fail

Advancements from investigations into extended life of

stockpile

Predictable safe response even in event of failures

Unique Design

Principles

Identify and isolate critical components

Assure fail-safe performance based on fundamental

physical principles

Operate only by unique

signals that cannot be

replicated in nature

Our primary mission is nuclear weapons engineering

sandia s surety approach
Sandia’s Surety Approach

Condition Assessment

Emergency Management

Surveillance

Testing

Quality

Instruments

Telemetry

Approaches to emergency management should a weapons accident occur–

information collection and management, decision support, training and exercise planning–could benefit society in

planning for other high-consequence events

Micromachines

Independent Assessment

Advancements to

improve surety

LEVEL IV

Laws of nature and mathematics

LEVEL III

Positive measures from science and engineering

society has benefited from the technologies developed for nuclear weapons surety

Surety Dividends

Society has benefited from the technologiesdeveloped for nuclear weapons surety

Clean rooms enabled a $960 billion worldwide electronics industry and revolutionized surgery and pharmaceutical practices. Detection and sensing technologies led to new medical instruments, crime fighting systems, explosives detection for airports, airbags, and chemical and environmental analysis tools.

In the near future, society will see even greater benefits from our surety efforts–

intelligent micro-machines (the “second

silicon revolution”) will enhance safety and security; modeling and simulations coupled with unprecedented computer power will revolutionize engineering; and advancements in science and failure analysis will enhance reliability.

slide12

Fifty Years of Surety Experience

Provide the Foundation for

Protecting our Critical Infrastructures

Infrastructures are growing more interdependent

Infrastructures–the framework of interdependent networks and systems that provides a continual

flow of goods and services essential to the defense and economic security of the United States

slide13

Our Infrastructure Faces

New Threats

The U.S. has recognizedour vulnerability to these threatsand has responded by theformation of the Presidential Commission on Critical Infrastructure Protection andsigning of the Presidential Decision Directive 63

Physical Threats

- Terrorist

- Aging and degradation

- Natural disaster

Cyber Threats

- Malicious intrusion

- Inadvertent error

- Insider threat

System Complexity

- Increasing number of

interconnections and automation

- Cascading effects

- Increasing interdependencies

slide14

Cascading Failures

Western Power Outage

8-10-96

Kansas City Air Traffic Control

Center Outage 12-18-97

San Francisco

Power Outage

10-23-97

Satellite Outage

5-19-98

Auckland Power Outage

2-20-98 through 3-27-98

slide15

Surety Solutions for

Protecting Our Infrastructures

• Vital issues processes

• Consequence based analysis

• Modeling of interdependencies

• Indications and warnings system concepts

• Information surety

• U.S. infrastructure assurance roadmaps

slide16

Integrated Approach to

Nuclear Reactor Surety

Model Development

and

Simulation

Experimental Facilities

Risk Assessment

and Management

slide17

Surety in

Nuclear Materials Management

Used as Declared in

Normal Conditions

Secure in

Hostile Conditions

Safe in

Abnormal Conditions

A Process from Cradle-to-Grave

slide18

Software Surety Techniques

Ariane 5 Missile Launch

Sandia is developing surety techniques for the specification, construction, and immunology for

high-consequence software systems

Visualizing Mathematical

Specifications

Rigorously Verifiable

Software Construction

Systems ImmunologyTM

slide19

Electronics Reliability

and Vulnerability

Affordable Superiority

Nation’s Security

Nation’s Economy

Strategic Technologies

Strategic Partnerships

University of New

Mexico and Sandia

Nationally Televise

Electronics Reliability

Courses

With New

Technology Comes New

Failure Modes

• Leveraging the commercial

electronics industry to support

national security applications

• Education and training

• Concurrent R&D to make new

technologies successful

• Model-based building-in-reliability

• Vulnerability assessment

slide20

Surety Principles are Making

the Safest Air Transportation System

in the World Even Safer

The Flight Standards Service of the FAA has embraced surety principles as the

basis for the next-generation Air Transportation Oversight System.

Surety principles, including improved data quality and appropriate information

management, offer enhanced aviation safety for the American public.

slide21

Physical Terrorism/

Architectural Surety

Physical Terrorism

Architectural Surety

Blast Structure Computational Simulation

Natural Disasters

Window Glass

Fragmentation

Chemical and

Biological Weapons

Risk

Management

Structural Health

Monitoring

Virtual Reality

slide22

Fighting Crime and Terrorism

Testing of Product Performance Claims

Bomb Disablement Tools

and Advanced Training

Fluorescent Evidence

Detector

slide23

Fighting Crime and Terrorism

Explosives

Detection Portal

Virtual Reality Training

More Secure Environments

slide24

Constraints

• Little funding

• No training in security technologies

• Privacy issues

• Poorly-paid security personnel

• No technology/maintenance infrastructure in place

• Schools are highly visible and need to be open

Surety Needs

• Take humans out of mundane tasks

• Security technologies that maintain themselves

• Develop AI systems that make security recommendations

School Security

Problems

• Guns

• Drugs

• Fights

• Theft

• Vandalism

slide25

Institute for

Surety Science and Engineering

Development

Application

Institute for

Surety Science

and Engineering

Research

Education