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SEMCOG Forecast Process

SEMCOG Forecast Process. What is the SEMCOG Forecast? SEMCOG Forecast. A 30-year forecast of population by age, households by income and children, employment by sector, and land use change

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SEMCOG Forecast Process

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  1. SEMCOG Forecast Process

  2. What is the SEMCOG Forecast? SEMCOG Forecast • A 30-year forecast of population by age, households by income and children, employment by sector, and land use change • Forecasts changes by individual land parcel, so output can be added up by any political or planning jurisdiction

  3. How we Forecast SEMCOG Forecast • We collect data on person, household, and job characteristics from state and national surveys such as the U.S. Census • Add to that local data on the current and future development of land parcels • Add to that other data on transportation, crime, tax rates and other development drivers • And input this data into an urban simulation model named UrbanSim

  4. Forecast Data Input SEMCOG Forecast Regional Control Totals • Land Parcel and Tax Assessor Data: • Property Address and Owner • Property Class and Property Status • Current Zoning • Value of the Land and Structures • Recent Sales Data • Number and Age of Buildings • Number of Housing Units • Building Occupancy • Building Size (Square Feet and Stories) Jobs Data (ES-202): Business Establishments Employment by Type Households Data (Census): Persons, Workers, Children, Age, Race, and Income Future Land Use plans, Crime rates, Environmental constraints, and Property Tax rates UrbanSim Model • Travel Data: • Travel Time between Areas • Accessibility to Transit and Jobs

  5. No Structure 1939 or earlier 1940 - 1949 1950 - 1959 1960 - 1969 1970 - 1979 1980 - 1989 1990 - 1999 2000 - 2010 Year Built of Oldest Structure Washtenaw County

  6. Urban Simulation Model SEMCOG Forecast • Simulates the interactions between land use, transportation, and public policy • It forecasts future household and business locations based on market preferences and available real estate • Can model different policy assumptions, such as changes in housing vacancy, land regulation, or travel patterns

  7. How the Model Works SEMCOG Forecast • Regional Forecast Totals: • Population • Households • Employment • New and Moving: • Households • Businesses • Current Inventories: • Housing and Households • Buildings and Businesses • Land Development: • Prices Adjusted • New Houses • New Buildings

  8. Solving Problems Local Government Decisions School enrollment has been up slightly over the last few years. Should we build a new elementary school?

  9. Change in Population Ages 5 to 17 by School District Large loss (>2,000) Loss (501 to 2,000) Slight loss (0 to 500) Slight gain (1 to 500) Gain (501 to 2,500) School Age PopulationSoutheast Michigan School Districts, 2010-2020

  10. Solving Problems Local Government Decision Since the long term forecast for school age children is a decline over the 2010 level, no, a new school building is not needed. School enrollment has been up slightly over the last few years. Should we build a new elementary school?

  11. Solving Problems Local Government Decisions We have a grant to build a new community center. Should we build a sports recreation building or a senior center?

  12. Population Growth by Age GroupSoutheast Michigan, 2010-2040 Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast

  13. Solving Problems Local Government Decision Since the long term forecast is for the senior population to nearly double while all other age groups decline, we should build a senior center. We have a grant to build a new community center. Should we build a sports recreation building or a senior center?

  14. Solving Problems SEMCOG Forecast • SEMCOG’s regional development forecast is designed to provide local elected officials the data needed to solve current planning issues • This is particularly important in a time of limited financial resources

  15. Washtenaw County Draft Forecast

  16. Washtenaw County Totals SEMCOG Forecast Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast

  17. Washtenaw County Trends SEMCOG Forecast Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast

  18. Continued Household GrowthPercent Chg. in Households, Washtenaw County, 2010-2020 Loss (0% to -6.0%) Gain (0.1% to 8.0%) Moderate gain (8.1% to 15.0%) Large gain (15.1% to 34.0%) Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast

  19. Smaller HouseholdsPercent Chg. in Population, Washtenaw County, 2010-2020 Loss (-3.1% to -12.0%) Little change (3.0% loss to 3.0% gain) Modest gain (3.1% to 10.0%) Moderate gain (10.1% to 18.0%) Large gain (18.1% to 23.0%) Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast

  20. Population Change by AgeWashtenaw County, 2010-2020 Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast

  21. Household Change by Type Washtenaw County, 2010-2040 32% Households 65 or older 16% Households under 65, without children 44% 56% 28% Households under 65, with children 24% Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast

  22. Household Change by Race Washtenaw County, 2010-2040 20% Other Race Householder 9% Hispanic Householder 6% 3% 12% Black Householder 15% 59% 76% White Householder Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast

  23. Employment Gains Five Largest Job Sectors, Washtenaw County, 2010-2040 Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast

  24. Small loss (-37 to -1 jobs) Little gain (1 to 50 jobs) Small gain (51 to 150 jobs) Moderate gain (151 to 500 jobs) Large gain (501 to 1,500 jobs) Employment by Community Change in Employment, Washtenaw County, 2010-2020 Very large gain (more than 1,500 jobs) Blocked for Confidentiality Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast

  25. Local Review Process SEMCOG Forecast • Review draft community numbers • Get comments or additional information to SEMCOG staff by January 6, 2012 • Final community forecast will be complete and approved by March 2012 • Data and reports will be available on SEMCOG’s Web site shortly thereafter

  26. Southeast Michigan Council of Governments

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