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SEMCOG Application of UrbanSim

SEMCOG Application of UrbanSim. Presentation to UrbanSim Users Group Xuan Liu April 30, 2009. SEMCOG 2035 Forecast Process. 2035 Forecast for Total Region: Mar 07 Communities and small areas: SEMCOG’s UrbanSim modeling Local Review and Input: Sept- Oct 2007 Adopted: April 3, 2008.

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SEMCOG Application of UrbanSim

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  1. SEMCOG Application of UrbanSim Presentation to UrbanSim Users Group Xuan Liu April 30, 2009

  2. SEMCOG 2035 Forecast Process • 2035 Forecast for Total Region: Mar 07 • Communities and small areas: SEMCOG’s UrbanSim modeling • Local Review and Input: Sept- Oct 2007 • Adopted: April 3, 2008

  3. Regional Totals Get Them right First!!!

  4. Big Three Market Share of U.S. Light Vehicle Sales (%)1991-2008 80% 72.6 70% 60% 53.0 49.4 50% 40% 1991 2004 2003 1999 2001 2007 1995 1998 2000 2006 2002 2008 2005 1996 1997 1993 1994 1992 Source: SEMCOG 2035 Regional Development Forecast

  5. 40-Year History of Building PermitsSoutheast Michigan, 1969-2008 Multi-Family Single-Family Source: SEMCOG

  6. Total EmploymentSoutheast Michigan, 2001-2035 3.0 2.9 2.8 Millions 2.7 2.6 0 2034 2021 2009 2025 2017 2001 2011 2027 2003 2029 2019 2020 2031 2004 2005 2007 2032 2033 2016 2023 2035 2024 2008 2010 2014 2026 2012 2018 2002 2028 2030 2013 2015 2006 2022 Source: SEMCOG 2035 Regional Development Forecast

  7. Total EmploymentSoutheast Michigan, 2001-2035 Source: SEMCOG 2035 Forecast

  8. Population and Annual Net MigrationSoutheast Michigan, 2001-2035 5,100,000 5,000,000 4,900,000 4,800,000 20,000 10,000 0 -10,000 -20,000 -30,000 2013 2001 2014 2031 2021 2009 2025 2017 2034 2011 2022 2003 2019 2029 2020 2004 2005 2016 2023 2032 2033 2035 2024 2008 2010 2026 2002 2012 2018 2028 2030 2015 2006 2007 2027 Source: SEMCOG 2035 Regional Development Forecast

  9. Population Forecast ScenariosSoutheast Michigan, 2001-2035 2009 Source: SEMCOG 2035 Forecast

  10. Age Distribution Southeast Michigan, 2000 & 2035 2000 2035

  11. Community Forecast Approved by 42:1 votes!

  12. Average Annual Change in Households, 1990-2005 (-3,422 to 1,113) Decrease, more than 20 loss (10) Little change, 19 loss to 20 gain (75) Moderate increase, 21 to 70 gain (79) Large increase, 70 to 150 gain (30) Very large increase, more than 150 gain (35) Average Annual Household Change from 1990 to 2005

  13. Average Annual Change in Households, 2005-2020 (-3,313 to 327) Decrease, more than 20 loss (9) Little change, 19 loss to 20 gain (147) Moderate increase, 21 to 70 gain (53) Large increase, 70 to 150 gain (15) Very large increase, more than 150 gain (5) Average Annual Household Change from 2005 to 2020

  14. Average Annual Change in Households, 2020-2035 (-402 to 368) Decrease, more than 20 loss (1) Little change, 19 loss to 20 gain (124) Moderate increase, 21 to 70 gain (63) Large increase, 70 to 150 gain (23) Very large increase, more than 150 gain (18) Average Annual Household Change from 2020 to 2035

  15. Average Annual Change in Households Decrease, more than 20 loss (10 vs. 9) Little change, 19 loss to 20 gain (75 vs. 147) Moderate increase, 21 to 70 gain (79 vs. 53) Large increase, 70 to 150 gain (30 vs. 15) Very large increase, more than 150 gain (35 vs. 5) Average Annual Household Change 1990-2005 2005-2020

  16. Percent of Population Age 65 or Older, 2005 and 2035 10% or less (103 vs. 0) More than 10% to 15% (89 vs. 0) More than 15% to 20% (27 vs. 29) More than 20% to 25% (9 vs. 114) More than 25% (1 vs. 86) Population Age 65 or Older 2035 2000

  17. Accuracy of Past ForecastsCompared to Census 2000 Population Year Forecast Published 1984 1991 1996 Region +5.0% -1.2% -0.6% County MAPE 8.8% 1.4% 0.8% Community MAPE 14.8% 6.2% 3.4% MAPE – Mean Absolute Percent Error

  18. Next Steps • One County Parcel-based Model Finished data preparation; Estimation now • Regional parcel model data preparation Will finish by July 1, 2009 • Scenario runs in second half of 2009 • Approve new forecast in 2012

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