PPAI Breakout Session Report

1. PPAI Breakout Session Report July 21, 2011

2. PPAI Breakout Session Report • Introductions • A review of PPAI activities In 2011 • Discussion on the Large Scale Circulation and Climate Extremes • What large scale circulation features lead to increased probability of specific extremes • A viable framework to validate climate model simulations for application in climate extremes

3. PPAI Breakout Session Report • Discussion on the sea-ice working group • Based on the comments received from the US CLIVAR (e.g., too broad), make necessary adjustments and resubmit • Place more focus on the influence of sea-ice changes on the high latitude climate variability on seasonal time scale • Discussion on NRC report on the assessment of seasonal and intra-seasonal prediction • What is the influence of intraseasonal variability on modes of climate variability (and consequently, on extremes)

4. PPAI Breakout Session Report • Discussion on the PPAI panel activities • Joint session with the POS on TRACE • Decadal prediction and predictability of North Pacific Variability • What mechanisms are responsible? • Intercomparison of processes responsible for decadal variability in Pacific among different models • Summary of ASP-CLIVAR workshop on climate extremes

5. PPAI Breakout Session Report • Discussion on Application interface • Intercomparison of CMIP3 and CMIP5 for sub-continental and regional scale variability over the US • To provide some guidance best available projection for the user community • Some thoughts on workshops

6. Possible Working Group Proposals and Ideas • Large scale climate patterns responsible for climate extremes (Richard Grotjahn) • Identification of climate extremes of relevance • Connection with large scale circulation • Assessing the simulation of large scale patterns in climate simulation • Understanding reasons for biases

7. Possible Working Group Proposals and Ideas • Climate and Carbon (Annalisa Bracco & Curtis Deutsch) • Problem: Uncertainties in the relative role of ocean stratification and winds on air-sea CO2 fluxes(relevant for attributions and for quantifying uncertainties in future changes) • Strategy: Develop a coordinated multi-model analysis of carbon-climate interactions in CMIP5 model outputs • Activities: • Identify metrics of physical variation (upper ocean density gradient, pCO2 or CO2 flux, wind strength, carbon export) • Identify common regions for flux analysis • Identifying time scales (long-term trends, decadal/interannual variability) • Perform analysis • Reporting

8. Possible Working Group Proposals and Ideas • Resubmit the sea-ice working group proposal (Ron Lindsay)

9. Possible Working Group Proposals and Ideas • Inter-comparison of processes responsible for decadal variability in North Pacific (Cristiana Stan) • Counterpart of AMOC focus on decadal predictability in Atlantic • What mechanisms are responsible for the PDV? • Intercomparison of mechanisms responsible for decadal variability in Pacific among different coupled models

10. Possible Workshops • Explore possibility of a summer colloquium in conjunction with the ASP on ‘Climate and Carbon” (Annalisa Bracco ; Curtis Deutsch) • Predictability of the sequence of climate events (water management services) (Gregg Garfin) ~ $20K • Interfacing CLIVAR Science with Applications (management of forestry and natural resources)

11. Impressions About the Joint OCB-CLIVAR Workshop • Small group discussions could have been beneficial • It would have been useful for co-chairs of both OCB and CLIVAR to discuss agenda and goals before the meeting (conference call) • If number of participants was a factor, it could have been limited to OCB scientists with interest on climate (lot of microbial people this year)

12. Others • Thoughts on either a small grants program or a more substantive collaborative program on the inter-comparison of CMIP3 and CMIP5 simulations in the context of regional climate over the US (Gregg Garfin)